Turn call?

[krishanleong]

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, MP calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls, MP calls, SB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (6 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, SB folds, Hero calls

I'm getting 7-1 on the turn. 4 clean outs to the gutshot. How many outs for the pair outs? Any? Enough?

Krishan

I dont always raise this preflop from the big blind with three people in the hand because you will be out of postion which makes the flop difficult to play if you dont hit anything.

Getting 7-1 on the turn I fold because if Mp has k10 or q10 then your outs are not clean.

[Spicymoose]

Raise preflop is standard.

I think this call is marginal, but fine. You still have UTG who may call, so you could get 8:1. You can probably almost always pick up at least 1 BB on average on the river. Furthermore, if we discount your 6 pair outs all the way down to 1, you would only need 8:1 immediate. I think your pair outs are at least this good. MP probably only has the ace if he has A2, A7. UTG isn't much to worry about. Only other problem is MP has KT or QT. I think far often enough you are up against other hands where your pair outs may be good.

[TStoneMBD]

i think a Q or K on this river would be good about a 1/3 of the time, so your 6 outter is really only a 2 outter.

so in essence you have a 6 outter getting 7:1 odds which is just slightly profitable.

assuming you go by the guide that your Q or K is only good 1/3 of the time that means the opponent will bet his ace the other 2/3 times when you connect your gutshot. sometimes hell also just fire through the river on a continuation bluff, so well say your implied odds for hitting a gutshot is 2BB.

when you connect your Q or K, because your hand is only good 1/3 times your implied odds are -.666BB when you catch them. sometimes he will continuation bluff of course so lets just say your implied odds are -.5BB instead.

4(2)+ 6(-.5)=5. 5/10 = .5

so your net implied odds is +.5BB

therefore youre getting 7.5:1 odds on a 6 outter which is more than enough.

there will also be times when MP checks down his hand on the river and your KQ UI holds up, but the fact that UTG is still in this hand and may actually have an ace or may checkraise more than mitigates this.

[TStoneMBD]

also, would you mind telling me why your threads never contain stats? youre the stat king i dont understand it.

[krishanleong]

I'm jsut being lazy. Playing 4 tables and posting. I just cut the hand from the instant hand history window and forget to write down the stats. I'll make sure I provide them in the future.

Krishan

[ QUOTE ]
I dont always raise this preflop from the big blind with three people in the hand because you will be out of postion which makes the flop difficult to play if you dont hit anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't a constructive post, but there's way too much of this going around. Self-spoiled button babies. Bwaaaaa, I don't want to raise the best hand out of position, it might be difficult to play! Bwaaa!

Play for value. If you're not able to play the hand profitably out of position then the way you're playing in that situation should be your concern. You shouldn't be trying to avoid the circumstance that you're struggling with and consider that a solution to the problem.

[ QUOTE ]
This isn't a constructive post, but there's way too much of this going around. Self-spoiled button babies. Bwaaaaa, I don't want to raise the best hand out of position, it might be difficult to play! Bwaaa!

Play for value. If you're not able to play the hand profitably out of position then the way you're playing in that situation should be your concern. You shouldn't be trying to avoid the circumstance that you're struggling with and consider that a solution to the problem.

[/ QUOTE ]

Take a valium man, lighten up.

The gutshot outs aren't necessarily clean. Although unlikely, MP could be betting an open ended straight draw. I think this is a fold

[TStoneMBD]

seriously bro, take a valium

Just realized how stupid this sounds, sorry

[TStoneMBD]

im not mocking you, i partially agree with you. bryce is being ridiculous. your logic is still somewhat flawed but an arguement could be made for not raising preflop.

that being said i raise, easy.

[ QUOTE ]
3 clean outs to the gutshot.

[/ QUOTE ]
FYP.

I don't think this is a call. You have a player behind you yet to act who may call, but may also raise.

Aside from only having 3 clean outs, the negative implied odds will eat away at you on the river when you hit a tainted K, Q or Js.