Two difficult hands: Is there a lesson to be learned here?

[allenciox]

The two hands have many similarities. I will present the hands, ask what you would do, and then after some people respond, talk about a possibly emergent principle...

Hand # 1: This comes from the 75k guaranteed Paradise $30 rebuy tournament from Monday evening. We were on the bubble. There were 140 people out of 1240 remaining, top 110 get paid. I have a slightly above average stack of $51k. Blinds are 2k,4k with a 200 ante, so pot starts at 7k. I was only moved to this table 3 hands ago, and I have never played against any of the relevant players before (I always hate it when other people say they have no reads, so I cringe to admit it here).

The CO (84k chips) limps. SB has 23k left after posting, BB 25k. What do you do with the AT of diamonds on the button? Think through this before looking at what I write below.





Two things occur to me: If I raise here I pot-commit myself and I am likely to only be called when I am behind. Since I am in-position on the button, it feels easier to limp as well and see a flop. So I limp, the SB completes, and the BB checks his option.

Pot:17k
Flop: Th 9h 3s.

Both blinds check, the CO bets 25k. What hands do you put the CO on? Note that a call pot-commits you. Do you hold 'em or fold 'em?

Hand #2: This comes from the same paradise tournament a day later (last night). About half the field is gone, blinds are 100/200 with a $25 ante, I am below average with a stack of 6500. In this case, I do have reads. Everybody folds to the CO+1 (6000TC), who is a fairly loose aggressive player, who makes continuation bets but is smart enough to back off when he is beat. He raises to 600. The CO folds. I have AJo on the button. Should I fold, call, or pot commit myself with a reraise? Again think through it.








For exactly the same reasons mentioned earlier, I coldcall the raise. Both blinds fold and we are heads-up.

Pot: 1750 Flop: 7 3 2 rainbow.

The CO+1 bets 1000. What do you do here? My analysis and results will follow some responses.

[wizard]

You're right, the hands are interesting but I don't believe that the hands are the same. I remember reading once that you should give a player on whom you have no reads a lot of credit until you have a chance to watch him. A limp from the CO seat is either a monster or a passive inexperienced player but your hand is not all that bad so I agree with your limp. After the flop, his bet is the right amount to make it wrong for a flush draw to continue so it looks like he is experienced and is on a huge hand. You should probably lay this down. Now, in practice, I probably push but think that it is wrong.
Hand 2 I believe is more cut and dried. I think that AJ is too weak to call a raise. You might be ahead but I think that you will be behind more often than not.

My guess in the first situation, the pusher has a flush draw. You do have TPTK, but he'll have a better draw than you.

[jcm4ccc]

Hand #1: I push without a second thought. 11k in the pot, 51k in your hand, great situation.

You're not entirely correct that you will only get called by better hands if you push. The CO might put you on a steal. However, in general, you are correct. But that doesn't matter , because you almost certainly have the best hand here. You are worried about AJ - AK, and TT - AA. If the CO has any of these hands, do you think he is limping? Very unlikely. Now, if the BB or SB wake up with a monster, well, that's poker.

You are pushing because 11k is a big pot, and you don't want to have to give that pot up on the flop when your hand doesn't hit.

But you limped, and now you have TPTK on the flop. The big stack overbets with a draw-heavy flop. I'm pushing my chips in the middle.

Hand #2: I call preflop, fold on the flop, expecting to see an overpair.

[PFrese]

First hand - I would have raised it to 10K preflop to knock out the BB and SB. Isolate the CO. Once the flop comes, I push.

Second hand - Push. He is stealing. snap it off and stack his chips. Your hand is most likely the best hand against this type of play.

[Lunch]

Hand #1
I find it very suspiscious that he bets 25k into a 17k pot. Sure he's eliminating someone's flush draw pot odds, but I think this is just big stack poker pushing small stacks out of a pot. I think you're ahead here. I'd give him credit for a draw, but not a made hand.

Hand #2
A board of 7 2 3 isn't likely to hit him, even if he is loose. If you decide that he's just continuation betting with high cards I'd reraise, try to convince him that you have an overpair to the board. This of course would get you into a lot of trouble if he reraises, as you're comitting a large amount to your stack. But if you think he'll lay down his hand if he thinks he's beat, it may be a chance you should take.
Of course if it was me I probably would've folded PF. But I'm still learning.

I think there's definatly a lesson to be learned.

Hand 1 - Most of the time I see a big stack limp in LP around the bubble its because he wants to see a cheap flop and take the blind's money without committing chips preflop in a stealing position. Jack it up preflop. As played, push the flop. I think he has a draw here or overs, KQ, QJ, J10, Q10, all make sense.

Hand 2 - What makes you think your pot committed to a reraise? You already read CO+1 as a LAG, why not test him? I don't mind your line, but I go with my read and make it 1800 preflop. You will still have 4800 behind, definitely enough.

[Masquerade]

First hand I like the limp for the reasons you give. I fold on the flop as it's not necessary to go broke with TPTK when youre in good shape in a tourney. If he's buying the pot, so be it.

Second hand I'm folding AJo pre-flop to the raise. However you've called and missed the flop totally. I fold here too. Is this a trick question?

First hand: I don't mind the limp here on the button. On the flop, the CO bet looks like a medium pocket pair (55-99), or else a couple of overcards, possibly KJ or KQ or QJ. If he has any of these and they aren't hearts, you should be able to push him off the hand. If he has 2 overcards and a flush draw his large bet doesn't make sense because he wouldn't want to lose all of his customers with a huge draw like this. I think a push is your best bet here.
Hand 2: I don't like the pre-flop call with A-J. Unless you are positive that you can outplay your opponent post-flop, i think you should have folded here pre-flop. His bet on the flop looks like a standard continuation bet, so you may be able to push him off the hand with a raise, but if he comes back over the top, you're in a ton of trouble.

[11t]

I push hand 1 preflop and push the flop.

I call preflop hand 2 and if I push or fold this flop. If he was LAG from the co+1 then I'd push but if there was a good chance he had a lower pair and was willing to go to the felt I would fold.

[allenciox]

I appreciate everyone's comments. Here are the results and analysis:

Hand 1:
After he bet 25k, I raised all-in with TPTK. He called, and turned over QQ. No T or A came and I was out of the tourney.

Hand 2:
Here I figured that he would continuation bet the flop no matter what he had, and this particular flop was unlikely to help him. I figured that I would represent a pocket pair, since that is often what someone has when they cold-call a raise in-position. My concern was that he might well call me if he also had a pocket pair, but in that case I would still probably have six outs with my overcards. So I pushed. He quickly called, and turned over A7s. I was down to a few hundred chips and was forced out a few hands later.

Analysis: I don't see anything wrong with my postflop play on either hand. There is so little room to maneuver when stacks are this short. There is, of course, the adage never to call off more than 10% of your stack preflop. In both of these cases, I am calling off close to 10% of my stack. My current thought is that having position is not important in this situation. Even when you are calling off 8% of your stack, you are whittling down your stack for difficult decisions post-flop. Perhaps in this situation you need to think carefully about whether raising or folding is preferable to calling.

In hand 1, I know so little about the table and I am so close to cashing, perhaps I just need to fold ATs (since I cannot confidently raise with it). In hand 2, given that the player is a known LAG, I think I need to raise all-in with the AJo. In this case (as well as most cases) he will fold.

Thoughts on this principle?