Counting outs at the remedial level.

Hope this turns out, as I did it by hand....

MP1 is a loose calling station. He rarely calls to the river without at least a pair, though.

BB is relatively tight and passive.

The only reason I'm posting this is because I'm not sure if I'm thinking about my odds correctly. I've been readin the books, and the posts, and I'm trying to put it into practice. Please be critical.

Caribbean Sun .25/.50 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is sb with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 limps, UTG+2 limps, MP1 limps, 3 folds, Hero completes, BB checks.

Seems ok to complete here...

Flop: (5 SB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, BB calls, 2 folds.

I'm thinking I can hit an ace, a four, or a 3 and take this pot. I know I'm getting 6 to 1 pot odds, and if I've counted my outs correctly I've got 10 outs, or a little less than 4 to 1 odds to hit. Right?

Turn: (4 BB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, BB folds.

Again, I think I'm getting 5-1 pot odds versus 4 to 1 to hit. So I call.

River: (6 BB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, Hero folds.

Suddenly, my odds drop to 0.12%.

Final Pot: 7 BB

[Doc7]

you want to hit a 4 and dodge another pair, such as kings to win? and you think that your ace is really going to win the pot with that kicker? I do not think you can count the ace as 3 full outs, the four has 3 full outs, or the 3 as 3 full outs.

i might peel that flop but not the turn...

[tiltaholic]

i assuming you mean an ace, a four, and a TWO.

if any of those cards win you the pot, then yes, you have 10 outs. and yes, you are thinking about it somewhat correctly in that if the pot offering you 6:1 on a 4:1 shot you should call...

but do you really have 10 outs???

do you really think a pair of fours will win all the time?
if an ace falls, will you be outkicked and lose anyway?

because those 6 outs (3 fours, and 3 aces) are somewhat tainted (as in, even if you hit them you might lose) -- you need to discount them a little bit.

i'd say maybe you could give yourself about 2 outs worth of outs instead of 6. (about half for the aces, 1.5 instead of 3, and about nothing for the fours -- but if you must, lets say 0.5 at most)

now you can add the gutshot outs (four twos), so maybe you have about 6 total outs.

6 outs is requires a bigger pot... i'd fold the flop.

ok. i typed this out and then read your read on MP1. so since he's betting he likely has a pair...and if he has a pair, he likely can beat a pair of fours...so forget about the fours as being outs at all.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Seems ok to complete here...

[/ QUOTE ]

This is nowhere near the most important decision in this hand.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm thinking I can hit an ace, a four, or a 3 and take this pot. I know I'm getting 6 to 1 pot odds, and if I've counted my outs correctly I've got 10 outs, or a little less than 4 to 1 odds to hit. Right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume you mean an ace, a 4 or a 2. And of those, the only one you can give full outs to is the 2, as your ace is likely to be dominated, any opponent has outs against your 4, and the ace and 4 also put 3 to a straight on the board. So, I give you 4 outs for the gutshot 2, .5 for the aces, and maybe .25 for the fours, giving you fewer than 5 outs. Fold the flop.

The rest of the hand plays differently from there /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

(Edited to fix my uber-crap math error.)

[charlie_t_jr]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm thinking I can hit an ace, a four, or a 3 and take this pot. I know I'm getting 6 to 1 pot odds, and if I've counted my outs correctly I've got 10 outs, or a little less than 4 to 1 odds to hit. Right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're overestimating the outs. Do you really think a pair of 4's will win this hand for you? The could help someone on a straight draw.

Not saying it's likely, but you have to take into account someone limped with the likes of A9 or A5, which would taint the A outs.

So lets take your gutshot outs and the discount the A outs a bit, give you 6 outs, which would make the flop call thin.

By the way I usually don't make that call pre-flop, but on a table like this maybe its not bad?

Of all the hands I pick to post, it had to be this one.

Ok, I'm an idiot. For some reason I was thinking I had a draw to two pair. I may have even copy/pasted the wrong hand.

Any way, yeah, I should've folded this on the flop.


My apologies.

[charlie_t_jr]

No apologies needed. You counted all the outs that would IMPROVE your hand. But you need to think about the outs that will improve your hand to a WINNING hand.

Keep up the study and posting.

Thanks for the replies.

Should I post this type of hand here, or in the beginners forum, or either?

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Not saying it's likely, but you have to take into account someone limped with the likes of A9 or A5, which would taint the A outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

At .25/.50? It's beyond likely. In this case, it should be treated as a near-certainty, because, if nobody did limp with ace-rag and an ace falls everybody will fold to Hero's bet, so his implied odds are in the dumper.

[Eeegah]

Shameless plug: If you're looking for some long, tedious, mind numbing out counting exercises, I wrote a quiz a few months ago here (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=micro&Number=3227326).

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
By the way I usually don't make that call pre-flop, but on a table like this maybe its not bad?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're getting 8.5:1 with ace-high and straights possible. Not completing here is a pretty large mistake.

Long, tedious AND mind numbing!?

I'm in!

Seriously, I'll check it out. Thanks.

[charlie_t_jr]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
By the way I usually don't make that call pre-flop, but on a table like this maybe its not bad?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're getting 8.5:1 with ace-high and straights possible. Not completing here is a pretty large mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

I generally almost never make this call. Pretty much for all the reasons listed in other responses discounting the outs. In the other response you said it was a "near certainty" that someone limp with A/rag. So I don't know at a table like this, maybe it's a mistake but a "large" mistake?

[shant]

Is this a standard complete at these levels? I fold A8o and lower in the SB in this situation.

Edit: Sometimes A9o too.

[charlie_t_jr]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
By the way I usually don't make that call pre-flop, but on a table like this maybe its not bad?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're getting 8.5:1 with ace-high and straights possible. Not completing here is a pretty large mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

I generally almost never make this call. Pretty much for all the reasons listed in other responses discounting the outs. In the other response you said it was a "near certainty" that someone limp with A/rag. So I don't know at a table like this, maybe it's a mistake but a "large" mistake?

[/ QUOTE ]

You know what. I've rarely played .25/.50. What is the SB. If it's more the 1/2, I may think more about completing.

One thing I'm really having to work on at these levels is the low value of money. I have a hard time being concerned about completing for 10 cents. I realize that I shouldn't worry about the money at any level, but when completing means a dollar instead of a dime, I tend to take it more seriously.

The downside to dropping all the way down in limits for practice (which I desperately need, obviously).

When to complete/not to complete is tough for me.

[Str8Fish]

*grunch*

wow I don't see it anywhere near you played it.

1) Don't even complete in SB with A4o. That's an awful hand.
2) Flop: I only see 4 outs to 2's here. An ace with your kicker is just awful... so I would count maybe 1 out to the Ace. So you have ~5 outs total. You don't have outs to your four nor do you have outs to 3's. If preflop wasn't good enough to fold at, I would fold here too.
3 and 4) same thoughts.

You need to read WLLHE a little more about outs.

[ QUOTE ]
One thing I'm really having to work on at these levels is the low value of money. I have a hard time being concerned about completing for 10 cents. I realize that I shouldn't worry about the money at any level, but when completing means a dollar instead of a dime, I tend to take it more seriously.

The downside to dropping all the way down in limits for practice (which I desperately need, obviously).

When to complete/not to complete is tough for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's good you admit this. I think that's probably the biggest reason that microlimits are so profitable. People have a hard time taking the money seriously. I played for years in a $2-$5 spread limit game at the local B&M. When I started playing .5/1 at Party my wife laughed at me, but when I showed her that I could make "real" money at this level she quit laughing. The point is that you have to treat each bet as a bet, not as just 10 cents or whatever. Think of it this way. You can play and learn with a bankroll that is 1/10th of what I needed to start. I've learned so much more in the few months of playing micros online, than I did in 15 years at the B&M. I get so many more hands, I can play just a few minutes at a time, and a bad session at micros is only $20 compared to $200 or more at the B&M. All wins - if you can take it seriously. If you can't, you'll just develop bad habits that will be impossible to break if you try to move up.

Well right now, I have $17 until my bonus hits. I mean, $500 is just a neteller deposit away, but the best way for me to take it seriously is to play with a correspondingly low bank roll.

I want to go back to $1/$2, The money to bankroll myself is really not an issue, but what's the point if I can't even make money at $.25/$.50?

I understand. I'm in the same situation. I got tired of spewing at the B&M and gave myself a fixed amount to play with. I resolved I wouldn't dig into my regular money and that my poker bankroll is only for poker. When it's gone, no more poker for a long time. That would be sad for me 'cause I love the game so. That's my motivation for taking it seriously. Actually, I've done really well at the micros only to take it to the B&M and blow it in live games and tourneys. Not sure why, 'cause the competition seems tougher online.

[Str8Fish]

If you can't beat 0.25/0.50 then you're gonna tank in 1/2.

This post notwithstanding, I haven't done -terribly- thus far. I think bonuses keep me a-float for the most part, but I did go on a 150bb run at $1/$2 before dropping back down to $.50/$1.

And then I lost my mind and dropped what I'd won trying NLHE and sit'n-goes. And multi-tabling.

But you're exactly right. I'm not going back up until I'm clearly playing winning poker. I don't play for the money yet anyway. I'm just interested in the game.