AK hand midway 22R

[Jah Red]

Somewhere in the middle of last nights $22R on Stars. I was feeling relly comfortable with my game for the first time in a while, then this hand came up. Of course, I had recently been moved to this table, so no solid reads.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

BB (t7689)
UTG (t7310)
UTG+1 (t21290)
MP1 (t8527)
MP2 (t12716)
MP3 (t14375)
CO (t3490)
Button (t9934)
Hero (t14800)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t1800</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to t4800</font>,

Hero?

I don't like this spot with the MP already showing strength. Any reads on him? He could easily push here and now 4800 turns into 8000 more. You have a drawing hand and Mp3 could have 10+, AK or AQ suited. I think you see a big pocket pairs way too often here to call.

Any reads?

[Jah Red]

NO. I had just moved to this seat a few hands ago so no real reads. I got real spooked by the reraise, obviously, and just couldn't see my self flat calling or pushing.

[Tyler Durden]

[ QUOTE ]
Any reads?

[/ QUOTE ]

Didn't read the initial post eh?

I think it's a fold if you are "feeling really comfortable" with your game and have no reads.

[ansky451]

[ QUOTE ]
You have a drawing hand

[/ QUOTE ]

Please eliminate that from your things to say about AK, especially soooooooted.

As for the hand, if MP1 was deeper, I'd insta muck. But the mere fact that he doesn't have that much leads me to beleive that MP1 could easily be trying to isolate and get all the money in now w/ AQ or 77-JJ etc. I honestly don't know what I would do here, hard to say without being there.

I think a push is better than a fold, but its reeeeeeeeeal close.

[Sam T.]

I agree that this is about as close as it gets. One question that might make a difference is the blinds. Are they going up soon? Granted they'd still be going up only to 400/800, but it's a factor that I might consider.

I think I would probably find a fold here.

[schwza]

arg, i keep changing my mind on this one. i think i like a push.

MP1 is likely folding hands as good as TT. if MP3 is a good player, he will also fold TT and maybe AK. if we get called by MP3, there's still a high chance we have a coinflip, and we might even get a donk call from AQ. the main point is that MP3 is probably reraising a decent number of hands that cannot stand our push, and even when called we're not in terrible shape.

but it's close.

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like this spot with the MP already showing strength. Any reads on him? He could easily push here and now 4800 turns into 8000 more. You have a drawing hand and Mp3 could have 10+, AK or AQ suited. I think you see a big pocket pairs way too often here to call.

Any reads?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking about agreeing with you until I saw:

[ QUOTE ]


You have a drawing hand and Mp3 could have 10+, AK or AQ suited



[/ QUOTE ]

AKs is not a drawing hand. WTF. It's a group 1 for a reason. This statement makes baby jesus cry.

Hero is in GREAT shape against AQ, splitting with AK, and a flip against TT. The only thing we're worried about is KK/AA. Is this likely based on these players? I don't know, that's a seperate issue, but these statements you made are waaaay off.

I think I push here and hope for the best. We're basically just hoping the second raiser doesn't have AA/KK. If the first one does, oh well, we end the hand with 10 bbs.

[schwza]

but do you think either player calls with AQ? not that i hate it if they fold.

[asofel]

[ QUOTE ]
but do you think either player calls with AQ? not that i hate it if they fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

people like to call. its a big pot. you might be pulling a squeeze play....think these things add up to AQ calling and calling enough to make it valuable? I wonder...

As others have said, i think this hand is really close...I think it depends a lot on the tournament structure, how many left, blinds, payouts, etc....but in the heat of it I'd probably push.

After using my time bank and thinking, I probably lay this down with no reads and start to throw things throughout my apartment when and A or K flops /images/graemlins/blush.gif I can certainly see the argument for pushing here though.

[bruce]

I would fold.

A likely scenario is for one player to have a pocket pair and
another player to have Ax with x being &gt; than 9. I'm not
sure what the math says but with two Aces out there you're
in worse shape than the so called flip. You're best case
scenario is for both players to have medium pocket pairs if they call or for one to have AQ. The worst case scenario
is when you're dominated. It't close but I fold.

Bruce

Bruce

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
but in the heat of it I'd probably push.


[/ QUOTE ]

no question - in a real tournament i push this within 5 seconds and then curse my terrible luck when i wind up 3 way all-in AK v AK v JJ. probably something i should work on.

[Sam T.]

[ QUOTE ]
After using my time bank and thinking, I probably lay this down with no reads and start to throw things throughout my apartment when and A or K flops /images/graemlins/blush.gif I can certainly see the argument for pushing here though.

[/ QUOTE ]

And feel much better when: the idiot with JTo makes his str8 /images/graemlins/grin.gif, or one of the villians flips over aces.

[TomHimself]

[ QUOTE ]
You have a drawing hand

[/ QUOTE ]

http://www.ubergaming.net/forums/uploads/post-1-1105898369_thumb.jpg

[Jah Red]

Hey map, you got a hidden cam in my house...
I took alot of time and finally folded. Mp1 pushes all in, MP3 calls.

MP1 flips QQ, MP3 flips AQo

Final board 6c As 6s 7s 3c

Crap....O.K. What now?.... Yell. Throw. Go Card Dead. Invest another hour or so and lose with AK to KQ on a runner runner flush. Pretty Routine.

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
but do you think either player calls with AQ? not that i hate it if they fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I definatly am very happy with a fold. In fact, I'd like it better. There's a ton of money in the pot when the action comes to hero, I'm perfectly happy taking it down PF. That would also allow it to get heads up, and hopefully with the smaller stack so I'm not dead if I lose.

[schwza]

lemme be more specific: you push, shorty folds and you know the bigger stack has AQ. you'd like to get called, but you're not crying if he folds instead.

[Sam T.]

If you KNOW they are playing these hands, the money already in the pot makes it an easy push:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1389281
pokenum -h ac kc - qd qs - ah qc
Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Kc 569266 41.53 782673 57.10 18815 1.37 0.422
Qs Qd 728344 53.13 627348 45.77 15062 1.10 0.536
Qc Ah 44209 3.23 1297610 94.66 28935 2.11 0.042

Turn that QQ into KK or AQ into AA, and things (equally obviously) change just a little tiny bit.

I REALLY hate to say it, but I think I fold. Main reason - no reads. You are late enough in the event to have the possibility of a few decent players at your new table. Pay attention to the push/call that's coming and make notes for next time. Of course, EXPECT an A or K or both on the flop since you folded. . .

[ QUOTE ]
lemme be more specific: you push, shorty folds and you know the bigger stack has AQ. you'd like to get called, but you're not crying if he folds instead.

[/ QUOTE ]

With that much money in the pot, and a dominating hand? I would definitely be crying if AQ folds there.

The most important point in this situation is that you have no reads on your opponents. When this happens, I always go back to to my default status, giving everyone credit for big hands when they raise, and especially when they re-raise. You're most likely going to face a re-raise all-in from MP1 if you call, which then may lead to an all-in from MP3. SO cut and dried, if you play this hand, you're going to have to play it for all of your chips. Now lets analyze where you most likely stand. One of your opponents most likely holds an ACE or a KING or both. And it is probably safe to assume that one of your opponents has a PP. Lets say that best case scenario, you're up against AQ and TT. You're now nearly down to 40% against TT and about 70% against AQ, not percentages that I would feel comfortable putting all of my chips in with. In this situation i think i fold. No reason to jeopardize your good chip position on a hand where you can't be a favorite given the previous action.

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
lemme be more specific: you push, shorty folds and you know the bigger stack has AQ. you'd like to get called, but you're not crying if he folds instead.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I agree. And obviously you have to push, so it doesn't really matter if this happens.