Did I Trap Myself? (3-3 PL at the Vic)

[JFB37]

3-3 PL at the Vic. Villain is one of the Vic regulars. Very TAG. Hero is also TAG and Villain knows this. I overheard him discussing my play with his neighbor. Hero has 1700, Villain covers.

Prefolp: Villain limps in MP, Hero pots it to 15 with T /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/club.gif, button calls, blinds fold, Villain calls.

Villain's call means he does not have AA/KK/QQ. He may have a pair 44-JJ or he has some kind of (probably) suited connectors.

Flop: 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Villain leads for 50. Hero calls.

Turn:: 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif k /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Villain leads for 150, Hero raises pot to 600, Villain re-raises pot to more than Hero's got.

[fuzzbox]

Raise the flop, that is a hugely drawing flop. If he wants to get all-in with you then thats great, you have top set, and he might have a weaker set.

You have to call the turn. If he has QJ, then you need to suck out. Its far too possible that he has T9 or a big /images/graemlins/diamond.gif draw, or 99 or 44. Your hand is too big to fold now.

I raise that flop with top set, its a real big drawing flop.

[Benholio]

If you think he would push here with 44/99, then you can call here pretty easily. You have ~$775 equity against a made straight if you call his bet here, and ~$3325 against a lower set. Not hard to find a ratio of these hands where calling ~$1050 has value, especially if any other hands are in his range.

[ansky451]

Raise flop, he likes his hand- you have the nuts.

Given the way you played it---- Yeah he might have the nuts, but lower sets are just as likely, if not more likely. Maybe even a big draw/ wierd 2 pair. No way you should get away here if he has QJ.

[rwanger]

He could easily have QJ, but it seems that 99 or 44 is just as likely.

I wouldn't worry about having "trapped" yourself in this scenario. QJ is open-ended with two overs, so even if you had raised the flop, he probably would have called and hit anyway.

Also, since he knows your style, do you think he puts you on a hand as strong as top set? Would he only do this with the nuts, or does he think that since you are tight (and if he was discussing you recently, he was probably thinking about what he could do to outplay you) you might lay down a big pair? Could he have something like KdQd?

[LA_Price]

I'd call given the way you played this. Villian might be putting you on AK here given the way you played this and so could be reraising with 99, 44, T9, KT all of which you have completely crushed. Only hand you lose too is KK and QJ and agiainst the latter you have outs.

[JFB37]

90% of the time I would raise the pot here on the flop but I was definately trying to trap. Risky, perhaps, but I thought the board justified it. There was no flush draw, only a straight draw, and no overs. I'm not positive he would have called a flop raise but think it is more likely than not that he would have.

On the turn, the one hand I could rule out for sure was a set of Kings, based on his pf play. Certainly there was a good chance that he had the nuts when he put me all in. However, I think he would have done this with 99 and my hand was reasonably well disguised. He could have been putting me on AA and trying to get me to lay it down.

The reason I posted the hand is because it raises the following general problem: when someone makes a big bet like this there is X% chance that he has the nuts but just how big does X have to be before you lay down the second nuts? [I considered my hand the second nuts because, as stated I was virtually certain he didn't have KK.]

[fuzzbox]

There are two diamonds on the flop you present above. Thats a flush draw in my book.

When a player leads into the raiser, they usually have a big draw a big hand or maybe are testing you with a weak hand (like 88 or 77 or something).

Raising the flop with TT here is great, because they can "put you on" an overpair trying to protect. Thus the big draws and big hands often 3-bet, and thats exactly what you want. You lose 77/88 type hands, but they dont pay you anymore money in any case, so there is no loss there.

Also, the board is as draw heavy as it gets. Any card 6-K and any /images/graemlins/diamond.gif completes some draw or other.

I like to pot the flop on this board, with this action, and hope that villain wants to get it in with me. If you 200 the flop and villain comes back for 800 then you can push and villain calls with lots of hands that you are well ahead of.

Just saying is all ... raising the flop on this board, when he leads seems like good poker to me.

[JFB37]

Well now I just look like an idiot, but on the flop it was the Ten of hearts. Definately rainbow. For some reason I can't edit the original post.

[maranello11]

You have to raise this flop to about 200. If he has QJ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif he will play with you and he will have to pair the board, if he has a set he will re-raise you thinking you have JJ-AA. Not raising this flop is a crime and makes play for later streets more difficult, like the King on the turn. As played I think you have to go with it, All-IN!

[jhall23]

[ QUOTE ]
90% of the time I would raise the pot here on the flop but I was definately trying to trap. Risky, perhaps, but I thought the board justified it. There was no flush draw, only a straight draw, and no overs. I'm not positive he would have called a flop raise but think it is more likely than not that he would have.

On the turn, the one hand I could rule out for sure was a set of Kings, based on his pf play. Certainly there was a good chance that he had the nuts when he put me all in. However, I think he would have done this with 99 and my hand was reasonably well disguised. He could have been putting me on AA and trying to get me to lay it down.

The reason I posted the hand is because it raises the following general problem: when someone makes a big bet like this there is X% chance that he has the nuts but just how big does X have to be before you lay down the second nuts? [I considered my hand the second nuts because, as stated I was virtually certain he didn't have KK.]

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm assuming you are referring to the point where you are raised all in? Pretty simple to calculate this. Based on your post at the point of your decision you have put in 665 into the pot so your remaining stack is at 1035. You just need to figure out the point where your return will be >= 1035.

Probably not a big leap to put villian on either the straight or 44/99 so we can use those as assumptions just to get an idea. Against 44/99 you are .977 to win, Against QJ you are .227 to win.

.227 * total potsize (~3400) = ~771
.977 * 3400 = 3321

So using those assumptions, with all the dead money here you can see for this to be +EV you don't need him to have a set very often. Having it just 10% of the time vs 90% having a straight your return is ~1025 which is just slightly -EV. So the breakeven point is right around there.

Someone correct me if I have fudged any of this real bad, but I think it's pretty close to correct.

[aba20]

you have to take into account the number of possible hands. QJ is more likely than 44 and 99 combined.

[TheWorstPlayer]

You're good here a lot. You should call. But you also should raise the flop. You are aware that in pot limit if you don't build the pot on the flop you can't get your stack in by the river?

[jhall23]

[ QUOTE ]
you have to take into account the number of possible hands. QJ is more likely than 44 and 99 combined.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just ran the numbers showing you the equity against those hands to display how often they need to have the bottom set vs the straight in this spot. You can then use the player knowledge, number of combo's of each etc and knock yourself out estimating the percentages of what villian shows up here with.

My calcs just show that he doesn't need to have the worse made hand here very often for you to be good with your call.

[ahnuld]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the flop, that is a hugely drawing flop. If he wants to get all-in with you then thats great, you have top set, and he might have a weaker set.

You have to call the turn. If he has QJ, then you need to suck out. Its far too possible that he has T9 or a big /images/graemlins/diamond.gif draw, or 99 or 44. Your hand is too big to fold now.

I raise that flop with top set, its a real big drawing flop.

[/ QUOTE ]


YUP

[Big_Jim]

TAGs don't limp call with QJ OOP

Beat him into the pot.