400 66 UTG hand---corrected b/c i am a moron

[Dave Mac]

party 400 6 max, 5 handed, effective stacks 900

I have 66 UTG and make it 12, folded the the sb who calls, bb calls.

flop is 457r pot 36

sb checks, BB bets 30, i call, sb folds.

turn is an offsuit 8, pot 96

BB bets 200, i just call.

river is a 7 496

he bets 250, I call.

comments, raise the flop or turn, do anyhting differently?
dave

[soah]

Is playing $1000 pots with unimproved 66 your default play, or have you simply omitted all of the relevent information from your post?

[Benholio]

Maybe raise the flop and check behind on the turn? As played on the turn, I'm suprised you called his 2xPSB. Is he bluffing that often? Your odds aren't really there for the OESD.

yes. i fold.
also probably call or raise to 16 utg

[Dave Mac]

sorry, as i corrected teh flop was 457, not 357, and i turned a str8.
dave

[emil3000]

Depends a LOT on the villain. Against tighter villains whose bets mean real strength I like a push on the turn. Even if the board is scary, it also looks bluff-friendly, he'll probably look you up with a set. If he is on air a lot I like the call, regardless, I wouldn't do anything other than call on the river. Against some villains I might fold, you only beat a bluff really, and a tie becomes less likely since you have two of the sixes.

Your draw is pretty much the only one out there so the only reason to raise flop is to get 88-TT to fold, but too often he has set / 2-pair / str8 & blows you off your draw, so calling is better.

When he bets the turn again I think he almost always has 1 pair beaten. Your hand is quite well disguised so its best to just raise it up now.

As played the river is a fold against solid opposition, though I can definitely see myself calling (& regretting it) against an unknown.

[Dave Mac]

he had 75 and i lost. as soon as i just called the turn i knew i [censored] up, i should have pushed the turn or at the very least put in a really big raise. failing that i think i need to fold the river, and i considered it and decided to fold just as my hand clicked call. but i won't make that mistake again, thanks for the replies.
dave

[swolfe]

bad beat alert

push the turn

[TheWorstPlayer]

No read on BB? I am very tempted to fold this on the flop in all honesty. Turn is really weird. I would probably push once you get there. I love pushing over overbets. They always call.

Edit: Now that I read the thread I just thought I would explain that you actually are in a terrible spot on the flop in terms of implied odds/reverse implied odds, hence the tendency to fold. You're not getting pot odds, you're not gonna get paid if you hit, a 6 is quite possibly no good but you're gonna pay to find out, you have no idea if your straight outs are good but you're gonna pay to find out. Just yuck. Your hand is not a good one on the flop.

[Dave Mac]

i understand what you are saying, however, even tho i lost doesn't it look like i would have gotten paid off?
dave

[TheWorstPlayer]

Well, you don't know on the flop that the guy is going to bet twice the pot on the turn when you hit your draw. And you also don't know what he has. If he has a set, your equity is not that high and if it is 77 and you hit a 6 you're going to end up calling another decent sized bet and losing. And he may have the nuts in which case you're in a whole world of hurt. And he may have an overpair in which case he won't put in another penny if you hit any of your 10 outs. And he may have 69 in which case you will pay through the nose if you hit an 8.

I just think that you have a bad reverse implied odds situation and no good implied odds situation. And you're not getting pot odds to call even if all 10 outs are good. So you're counting on implied odds, which I don't think are there, especially when you factor in the reverse implied odds when you improve but still lose.

However. Once you make the flop call, there is no play except to push the turn. The only way that you are getting correct odds to draw on the flop is if you think that he cannot fold on the turn even when your obvious draw hits. This is going to most likely be the case when he has a set and cannot fold it because he puts you on an overpair. When he overbets the turn, this looks like it is the exact situation. I would put him on a set a large % of the time here. A stupidly played set, of course, but a set nonetheless. And it sure doesn't look like he is going to fold it. And you want to protect since he has a very live draw on the turn with a set. So I think you definitely should've pushed. Can't worry about 69 obviously and you want value/protection. Push. As I said before, they always call the push when they overbet.

[soah]

Your analysis is not considering the fact that you may win the pot without improving.

[TheWorstPlayer]

My written analysis is not including that. But my play does account for that fact. My written analysis also does not account for the fact that he may get you to lay down on the turn when he fires a second barrel with 69. Obviously I can't lay out everything, I was just trying to touch on the most important and less obvious points. I definitely agree with you that sometimes it goes checkcheckcheckcheck and you win. But I don't think that scenario drastically affects the EV of the situation.

[Dave Mac]

that all makes complete sense, thank you.