TPTK river value betting question

The villian in this particular case was 42.5/2.5 over 40 hands. I hadn't seen anything special out of him since he sat down. What sort of hand range do you put him and what do you do? To save time, his stack was $27 by the river.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP ($21.50)
CO ($7)
Button ($93.90)
SB ($50)
<font color="#C00000">BB ($48.25)</font>
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($109.10)</font>

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, MP calls $2, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($6.25) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $6</font>, MP folds, BB calls $6.

Turn: ($18.25) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $13</font>, BB calls $13.

River: ($44.25) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ????</font>

i'm inclined to check...if he has you beat, he'd call your bet, and if you have him beat, just be happy with your pot

[c_strong]

Looks like a busted draw. You could bet $10 to tempt him into a call with his high card, but you risk letting him raise with a set/two pair or bluff. Given the size of the pot I'd check.

[deaders]

I would check, you only have TP and while it does look like a missed draw it would suck to be raised here. Then again I think I do miss some bets on the river, but it doesnt look like this is really a good spot for one.

[Maulik]

As played I think you can bet him for the remainder of his stack. It looks likely that villain was on a draw or has a worse J, althought J9 is possible.

The reason for betting the river here is -- he can't come over the top of you making it a difficult call on the river.

Villain will lead with hands you are beat by.

[djoyce003]

If we are putting villain on a busted draw, what is the point of betting the river? He isn't going to call it...a bet does nothing other than folding him out. If you think he'll call with a hand worse than tptk then a value bet becomes possible, but then again, the possibility exists that our hero is behind here...do I really want to double this guy up with tptk because if I bet this river for anything reasonable it's putting villain all in....i'm not sure a check behind here isn't in order.

[pokernose]

I'm in favor of checking it down, but a 1/2 pot sized bet would not be amiss. With this type of player, your money isn't going away for long if you lose. He looks like he might be pretty passive so a check raise probably isn't coming. KJ, QJ, and JT are all possible hands you are currently beating.

I ended up thinking for a little while, put him AI, waited about 30 seconds before he calls and flips TT, absolutely not what I expected, although I was certainly quite happy.

The reason I ended up posting this is because my standard line here is to check behind. Normally in a TPTK/overpair situation, especially with draws on the board, I like to bet both the flop and turn hard, then check behind on the river to both price out draws and avoid someone slowplaying me. However, especially in a lot of the meta-posts lately, it seems like quite a lot of value gets missed on the river and I'm wondering if this hand isn't a place to pick up that value, since both the flush and the str8 missed and a set/2-pair would probably have bet out at some point. In this case, MHIG, but at the same time, this line seems like a great line (the perfect line really) to get stacked by a 2-pair/set; its hyper aggro. I like aggression, but given my varience lately, I'm wondering what I'm overplaying and what I'm not extracting value from.

[rachelwxm]

nh, good thoughts.

[djoyce003]

given this action i'm surprised you didn't have a read that he was a bit of a calling station prior to this hand...clearly he is and deserves a "value bet" note and a spot on the buddy list.

I like the value bet here. Seems like the villain is trying to get to a showdown. I think u see weaker jacks (J10, KJ, QJ) and even under pairs (77, 88) oftne enough at 50nl to make this + EV. nh, Well played