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View Full Version : AK as an isolator, against an isolator


Josh W
12-06-2005, 05:24 AM
20-40 on party.

There is a (no joke) a 93/6/0.5 player who limps UTG. The next player is a 17/8/1.9 player and raises.

HOwever, UTG+1 has been playing a lot of hands, always raising, trying to isolate UTG. I think his raise here means a little worse range of hands than would be indicated by his stats alone.

I threebet AKo, and just the three of us take the flop.

Flop is 962, rainbow. Checked to me, I bet, UTG calls, and UTG+1 checkraises. I threebet (hoping to get UTG out of there with his J7 or whatever that is drawing very live against me).

It works....UTG mucks, and UTG+1 calls.

Turn is a blank. Say, a 4. He checks, and I check.

River is a queen, he bets, and I call.

I'll post my turn and river thoughts later, but am curious as to how others would handle this situation.

Thanks,

Josh

GoblinMason (Craig)
12-06-2005, 05:41 AM
I like the flop/turn, but I'm not sure about the river given the flop action. What's he trapping you and the megafish with on the flop...no draws.

I think I'd let this one go on the river unless you have some read that he'd play the flop like that w/AK or less.

-Craig

Schneids
12-06-2005, 06:58 AM
If you're going to call the river bet I think you're better off betting the turn because of the slim, minute chance he might decide your 3-bet PF and 3bet on the flop means he's beat and he gets rid of 55. If he c/r you on the turn again, you can fold to it right there.

Pog0
12-06-2005, 07:04 AM
looks good.
bet/folding the turn is bad because you're getting something like 9:1 with 6 outs vs TT - QQ which may play it like this. Since we really don't want to see a check/raise, we decide to induce a bluff / take a free card on the turn.

Q on the river is the worst card for you, but after your turn check, villian might be fairly confident to put you on AK and take a stab with AT, AJ, or KJ. But was he making a play on the flop then? C/Ring, hoping you fold UI on the turn with overcards? It's possible, but less likely than a pair, say 88, A9, TT-QQ.

We induced a bluff, we can't fold to it now, can we? It's the combination of a crappy river card + his flop c/r that makes me believe that we're usually beat here. He probably thinks we have AK, so how does he think we will act with it?

Pog0
12-06-2005, 07:07 AM
Isn't it still very likely that we have 6 outs on the turn, making folding a mistake? I suppose it depends how likely that is. If we're treating the flop call, turn c/r as indicating more strength than a flop cap, lead would, then the increased chance of AA, KK, 99 makes us have to discount our outs. Otherwise, I think I'm seeing 11:1 on a turn c/r, we need about 4 effective outs to make that call.

Schneids
12-06-2005, 07:09 AM
[ QUOTE ]
looks good.
bet/folding the turn is bad because you're getting something like 9:1 with 6 outs vs TT - QQ which may play it like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see TT-QQ playing their hand this way collectively PF thru the turn. Most 20/40 players will either cap the flop if they think they're ahead, or checkcall the rest of the way if they think they might not be. And I think most of the time QQ-TT are getting capped PF thanks to the UTG's dead money. All of this leads me to say if you get checkraised on the turn after three betting PF and 3 betting on the flop you are hoping to have 3 outs and most of the time are drawing dead.

Pog0
12-06-2005, 07:17 AM
sounds about right. If TT-QQ thinks it's ahead, it doesn't want to risk giving a free card to what very likely could be and in fact is a 6 out draw. AA and 99 doesn't mind getting tricky because they are less likely to lose to a free card. That said, I hate getting c/r on this turn, but by that point 99, AA, and KK all seeming equally likely (then again, wouldn't he cap AA and KK pf as well?), we have 3 outs 1 in 3 times, or 1 out...

But AA or KK should be capping pf, especially with UTG in there.

Suddenly I'm simply inclined to think that we won't be getting check raised very often at all on the turn here, so I say bet for a free showdown if we plan on calling a bet on the worst river card anyway.

Brom
12-06-2005, 08:53 AM
Bet the turn I think and check behind on the river UI. He may still be drawing so you should charge him on it. It also gives you the option of a free showdown or extra money if you hit. This option is far superior to checking behind the turn and trying to pick off a few bluffs on the river.

If he checkraises on the turn you can release fairly confidently knowing that you are drawing to three or less outs probably. I don't see a player of his stats putting in three bets preflop and flop, and then checkraising the turn on some sort of move. If he takes this line, he's playing you with some hand that has you smoked probably.

12-06-2005, 11:07 AM
I like the flop and the turn, but on the river I can't see which hand of UTG+1 you can beat after he checkraised both of you on the flop.

But if you really thought you might still have him beat, then I would bet the turn and check the river, this gains an extra bet when he would be drawing and missed.

12-06-2005, 04:35 PM
On the turn, after he checks, the first question you should be asking is WHY? Your answer should be simple: He has you on a big overpair AND he has either: a. A smaller pair (my best guess); b. Or overcards (less likely, maybe he has AQ). If he's playing a whole lot of hands, maybe he has 87, but you really can't put him on this hand the way it was played both pre-flop and on the flop. Is A9s out of the question. No.

Checking on the turn is a surefire sign of weakenss. You three bet, now you are checking. Sure, it may lead to suspicion, but now chance you had of having him fold his small pair or his QK / AQ overcards is over. Put in another way, on the turn you are investing a small percentage of the pot to win a big one if he folds. On the river, you are putting a small percentage of the flop on a wild guess that will be right a very small portion of the time. Which would you rather have?

Given your situation, you have to bet on the turn. It's really your only shot at a fold. There are too many cards on the river that can help your opponent, at least from your perspective

jba
12-06-2005, 05:11 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Sure, it may lead to suspicion, but now chance you had of having him fold .... his QK / AQ overcards is over.

[/ QUOTE ]

why do you want those hands to fold

12-06-2005, 05:21 PM
Yikes, good point. Well, I don't want his QK or his AQ to fold. But, I think that from the looks of it, he has a small pair, and this is the last time you're convincing him to fold that. And, even if he has air, you're not quite sure what kind of air he has given his aggression, so unless the river is very safe (e.g., not a paint), you're quite confused here too. So, in a sense, I want him to fold his air as well, as any air can turn into something good on the river.

lil feller
12-07-2005, 01:03 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Sure, it may lead to suspicion, but now chance you had of having him fold .... his QK / AQ overcards is over.

[/ QUOTE ]

why do you want those hands to fold

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't. Betting the turn gives those hand hero has dominated a chance to incorrectly call, and the hands that here is behind to a chance to fold due to overrepresentation on the flop. Not betting the turn essentialy flips hero's hand over, and makes it impossible for the villain to make a mistake on the river (not to mention if he had a 3outer, he just got a free crack at it).

I think a turn bet is a must, unless the villian will c/r with a worse hand and after all the strength hero has shown, I don't see that happening.

lf

Josh W
12-07-2005, 05:35 AM
The problem with betting the turn, as some have pointed out, is that if UTG+1 will checkraise with a hand like JJ,I should call. However, putting two bets in on the turn is silly and unnecessary.

Now, before you hit "reply" and try to refute this, understand I said "the problem with betting the turn". That is, THERE ARE PROBLEMS WITH BETTING THE TURN. However, I do not mean to state that those problems outweigh the benefits.

If I had to do it again, I think I'd check the turn and fold the river to his bet.

To those who say bet the turn, what do you do if he checkraises?

Thanks,

Josh

lil feller
12-07-2005, 03:48 PM
[ QUOTE ]
The problem with betting the turn, as some have pointed out, is that if UTG+1 will checkraise with a hand like JJ,I should call. However, putting two bets in on the turn is silly and unnecessary.

Now, before you hit "reply" and try to refute this, understand I said "the problem with betting the turn". That is, THERE ARE PROBLEMS WITH BETTING THE TURN. However, I do not mean to state that those problems outweigh the benefits.

If I had to do it again, I think I'd check the turn and fold the river to his bet.

To those who say bet the turn, what do you do if he checkraises?

Thanks,

Josh

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Josh,

I'm in the "bet the turn" camp. While I agree that getting c/r on the turn would suck I think the benefits of a bet outweigh the risks associated with a call.

Before we start delving into situations, lets look at the bet conversation. His flop c/r indicates strength, especially since he intentionally c/r the field, but that doesn't always mean pair strength. He knows that you know that he's been raising lite, and he knows that you're 3bet range is also lite. I'd c/r w/ AK or AQ on that flop and would be doing so for value and the villians stats are almost identical to mine. Your flop 3 bet says "I want the hitchiker out. I don't want to wait till the turn to raise. I have a pair and I think its bigger than yours." At this point he's probably thinking you have TT-QQ (maybe KK).

Now, given all that. If you bet the turn he might call with hands that have only 3 outs (AK, AQ, KQ...) because he thinks he has 6 outs against your TT. If you bet the turn he might also fold hands that currently have you beat (77,88, and maybe TT) because he thinks he only has 2 outs. I guess my point is that had you played the hand like you had AK, then you'd never have any chance of getting a better hand to fold, but you didn't. You played the hand like you had a good PP, and might get a medium PP to fold.

I think the combined likelyhood that he calls when he shouldn't and folds when he shouldn't outweighs the likelyhood that you get c/r on the turn. I would be surprised if he would c/r this turn, after the other action, with anything less then KK, and I would probably fold to a c/r.

lf

Josh W
12-07-2005, 05:47 PM
Lil -

Very nice response, thank you.

It's really interesting, on the turn, I think because if I bet he could really do any one of the four things:

Call hands he should call
Fold hands he should fold
Call hands he should fold
Fold hands he should call.

I guess my thinking was he'd do the first two a lot more than he'd do the second two. I may very well be wrong, and given the majority of responses, I guess I may. I think that my aforementioned thoughts along with the ensuing confusion that will arise if I get checkraised made me check. I don't like tough decisions, so I tried to avoid one, by checking.

As a bit of an aside....

I'm very un-results-oriented. Lots of times people will bet (in like a 3 way pot) here, and AQ will fold. Then, when the Q comes on the river, their AK beats the lone remaining opponent (say, 78 or some such draw). AQ moans that he layed down the winner, and the AK thinks he played the hand well.

But that's only results oriented thinking that makes the AK think he played the hand well. In reality, in a 10ish BB pot, you WANT people calling with their three outers. In fact, if they are going to fold their three outer (but will ever bluff or payoff on the river), you specifically DON'T WANT THEM TO FOLD. Getting them to fold is BAD PLAY, even though the results make it **LOOK** like a good play.

I don't think very many people look at it this way or understand it as such (and please note, this is an 'aside', and doesn't necessarily pertain here). It is possible to 'slowplay' an unimproved AK (no pair). It really is a monster in some spots.

Back to the hand at hand (I crack myself up!!). I think, the more I think about it, his flop checkraise is going to be a pair a very high percentage of the time. Maybe T9. Maybe 77. Maybe JJ. Given that he may checkraise any of these on the turn (if he reads my threebet as a "get outta my pot, straggler" bet), I still like checking the turn. But against a 17/8 player who very likely has a pair on the flop, I think I can give up on the river without paying off.

Again, this is largely because he may checkraise any pair on the turn. I guess it's the "check behind with position when you have outs on the turn" check.

Sorry that this is so rambling.

Blah blah blah,

Josh

krishanleong
12-07-2005, 07:03 PM
[ QUOTE ]
If you're going to call the river bet I think you're better off betting the turn because of the slim, minute chance he might decide your 3-bet PF and 3bet on the flop means he's beat and he gets rid of 55. If he c/r you on the turn again, you can fold to it right there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I feel kinda dirty quoting a player much better than I but I really was thinking the same thing. /images/graemlins/smile.gif Whatever he has, he probably has outs that he'll fold if he is unpaired.

Krishan

Schneids
12-07-2005, 07:30 PM
Right. I think your turn check is fine if you're going to fold UI to a river bet, since I agree his c/r is at least a pair like 98% of the time.

lil feller
12-07-2005, 10:13 PM
[ QUOTE ]
It's really interesting, on the turn, I think because if I bet he could really do any one of the four things:

Call hands he should call
Fold hands he should fold
Call hands he should fold
Fold hands he should call.

I guess my thinking was he'd do the first two a lot more than he'd do the second two. I may very well be wrong, and given the majority of responses, I guess I may. I think that my aforementioned thoughts along with the ensuing confusion that will arise if I get checkraised made me check. I don't like tough decisions, so I tried to avoid one, by checking.


[/ QUOTE ]

Certainly a valid analysis, but I think you might be underestimating how often he folds a crappy pair. Keep in mind he might also have a 6 out hand, like QJ or something, that should call if he knew what you had, but you would rather get a fold from.

[ QUOTE ]
But that's only results oriented thinking that makes the AK think he played the hand well. In reality, in a 10ish BB pot, you WANT people calling with their three outers. In fact, if they are going to fold their three outer (but will ever bluff or payoff on the river), you specifically DON'T WANT THEM TO FOLD.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very true, but you also don't want them to draw for free when they would have called anyway. Slowplaying is only necessary when your opponent(s) are drawing slim-to-dead AND wouldn't have called a bet. Rarely do these two circumstances co-exist. In this particural hand, any 3 outer (especially AQ) is certainly calling a turn bet.

[ QUOTE ]
I think, the more I think about it, his flop checkraise is going to be a pair a very high percentage of the time. Maybe T9. Maybe 77. Maybe JJ. Given that he may checkraise any of these on the turn (if he reads my threebet as a "get outta my pot, straggler" bet), I still like checking the turn. But against a 17/8 player who very likely has a pair on the flop, I think I can give up on the river without paying off.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with the range. I think, however, if he's aware of your stats (and he probably is) he isn't c/r the turn without a hand that has you at 3 outs or less, and you can safely fold to the c/r. As far as the river, i'd be inclined to call. The combined information value (iso-standards up front and c/r standards vs the field) and potential showdown value (you did check the turn...) would make it worth the BB to see his hand, expecting to lose most of the time.

interesting hand to be sure.

lf