Should I see the flop or just let it go now [Archive]

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private joker

12-06-2005, 02:39 AM

PF 3-bettor in the hand in question is a bit over-aggro, 29/8/3.25, whereas the PF capper is unknown. But he seems a bit on the weakish/tightish/thinkingish side based both on a hand where he angrily complained about folding overpair KK on a board with heavy action because he feared a set and QQ took it down, and on this amusing NC hand, where he was the BB:

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
4 folds, Hero raises, MP3 3-bets, 3 folds, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.40 SB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
BB bets, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (6.20 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls, BB calls.

River: (9.20 BB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
BB folds, Hero bets, MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 11.20 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has Js Ad (four of a kind, threes).
MP3 has Td Tc (four of a kind, threes).
Outcome: Hero wins 5.60 BB. MP3 wins 5.60 BB. 

Anyway, here's the hand in question:

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Button 3-bets, SB caps, 1 fold, Hero...

Nick C

12-06-2005, 02:45 AM

I guess the odds you're getting aren't so bad. But I don't like playing just for a straight. And versus two cold-callers, a 3-bettor, and a capper, I'm worried that's what I'd be doing.

So I think I'd fold.

toss

12-06-2005, 02:47 AM

Seems like you'll get 9:1 at best if you're lucky. My cards are hitting the muck. Too much risk of domination too.

BWebb

12-06-2005, 02:48 AM

I'm guessing BB capped as the hand history only shows a call.

Nick C

12-06-2005, 02:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Seems like you'll get 5:1 at best if you're lucky. My cards are hitting the muck. Too much risk of domination too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since we've already invested 2 SBs, it's more like 9:1 if we're lucky.

Nick C

12-06-2005, 02:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm guessing BB capped as the hand history only shows a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Look at the second hand.

toss

12-06-2005, 02:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Seems like you'll get 5:1 at best if you're lucky. My cards are hitting the muck. Too much risk of domination too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since we've already invested 2 SBs, it's more like 9:1 if we're lucky.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've no idea what you're talking about /images/graemlins/grin.gif

*Walks away whistling.*

BWebb

12-06-2005, 03:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm guessing BB capped as the hand history only shows a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Look at the second hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doh! Yeah, fold.

Nick C

12-06-2005, 03:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
*Walks away whistling.*

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/laugh.gif

private joker

12-06-2005, 03:07 AM

9:1 sounds good on paper, but KQo is a payoff hand and subject to terrible reverse implied odds, right? Still, maybe I can get away from it postflop if I don't flop something great. But what if I flop something like 2 spades and a gutshot, etc... it's a tough decision, hence the post. Keep talkin'.

toss

12-06-2005, 03:56 AM

The pain of playing it makes me want to fold. Now if they were sooted...

SackUp

12-06-2005, 05:14 AM

Me no likely. I'm tossing preflop.

1) Chances that we are dominated is very high.
2) Getting away even if we are dominated might be damn hard.
3) KQ is a crappy multiway hand and we are oop in a 5 player pot.

Even with the huge pot I really don't think we can play this when basically just gunning for a straight.

Shillx

12-06-2005, 05:28 AM

How often will you flop a doozy?

By the looks of it, you will flop either a straight/OESD/2 split/trips just about 7% of the time. All of these hands comblined figure to win $$ postflop on average, so you would need a bit over 13:1 to call here (if they broke even postflop, less if they win). Of course it depends how much $$$ you can pull with these hands postflop and how well you can manage lesser flops like gutshots and one pair hands. I don't know if a good player can call, but if you do call, you have to be very careful and not trap yourself postflop with a weak hand. Playing for the big flop might sound like a weak way to play in a huge pot, but you can ill afford to make mistakes with this kind of underlay. I guess I would fold here.