Folding the flop for one bet is cool

[SNOWBALL138]

I didn't like my odds on the flop, but mainly I didn't like my position. It could easily be raised behind me. I'm not entirely happy about he 2 spades on the board either, even though I have the K of spades which is nice.

The guy who led the flop was pretty laggy. He was 55/1.2/0 or something like that. My first thought was to raise, but I didn't really think I could push out anyone with middle pair behind me, and I didn't want to fatten the pot so much that I would have to peel the turn when it blanks off.


Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 max, 10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, SB calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, SB calls.

Turn: (9 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, CO folds.

River: (12 BB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP3 folds.

Final Pot: 14 BB

[hobbsmann]

I don't fold this flop. We have two backdoor draws and over cards that might or might not be good, but I'd estimate we have 6ish outs on average and getting 11:1 I don't mind calling even though we aren't closing the action.

Does anybody think this is an ok spot to raise?

[silkyslim]

I just had a microbrew, so im gonna say raise this flop. Laggy arsehole has any 2, so you want to maximize winning chances and protect here. THe backdoor draws tilt me oer the edge. I think folding is a mistake.

[bambi]

I think raising this flop depends on the people behind you are, if they are tight i raise and take a free turn card if i dont hit, then can decide on the river if i want to call with AK UI, however if the opponents behind are a bit aggressive i would hate for this to come back to me having to call 2 more cold.

So on a normal table i call, and then when we hit the best card in the deck for us on the turn, i raise then.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
The guy who led the flop was pretty laggy. He was 55/1.2/0 or something like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's LAGgy?

This is a standard flop fold IMO, So I think you played this hand well. All you really have here is a draw to one pair, which may or may not be good if you hit it, or when you do hit it on the turn you can easily get rivered.

So you have six outs to a pair that will sometimes win the pot and other times just cost you more money when you lose. This means that you cannot count your draw as a six outer since you wont win every time you hit one of your outs. A better estimate would be that you have 3 pure outs in this situation, and if you add 1 pure out for your backdoor flushdraw you have 4 pure outs IMO.

Now you are gettin 11-1 to call with 4 pure outs, given this information it appears you have just enough to call, however there are 3 people left to act after you, so if you just call there is a decent probability that it will be raised behind you, thus lowering your true odds in this situation. Becuz of a chance of a raising coming behind you, you dont have the odds to call with your weak draw. So folding is the best move.

What about raising the flop?? What will a raise accomplish? Since there are 3 players behind you, I doubt you will be able to muscle them all out, so you will almost never get a free card with this raise, and when you run into a strong hand you will end up paying 3 bets on the flop when you could easily be drawing dead. If the pot were short handed with just one player behind you, then raising this flop makes sense since there is a decent chance the player behind you will fold thus giving you more strategic options on the turn.

[The Goober]

I think it all depends on the players behind you. If they are aggro and/or thinking, then folding is probably right b/c you could suffer from serious reverse implied odds or end up being 3-bet with JT and not know where you stand.

If its LP fish, then I think a call is in order.

Either way, I think your right that raising isn't good - too many limpers and too many limping hands could have caught some piece of this and and won't fold.

[SNOWBALL138]

Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The guy who led the flop was pretty laggy. He was 55/1.2/0 or something like that.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



That's LAGgy?

I got the stats wrong. He was 50/8/1.73. Isn't 1.73 postflop AF high for a 50vpip player? But stats aside, this guy was a super-freak. He liked to get busy with overcards/any pair/draw.

[SNOWBALL138]

Ok, this fold sucks. I have THREE, not 2, backdoor draws to go with my overcards. I have the backdoor bicycle draw, the backdoor broadway draw, and the backdoor flush draw. I guess I need to reread the counting outs section in SSHE and then say ten hail Marys and five Our Fathers.

This is totally a flop raise. I think the lead bettor is often holding cheese, and its somewhat possible that facing the field w/ two cold will at least give middle pair something to think about.

[paperboyNC]

The K/images/graemlins/spade.gif makes this an easy call. With no spade I might fold. But usually I'd peel one.

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't like my odds on the flop,

[/ QUOTE ]

?????

Why is raising better than calling?

I think that folding here is horrible due to the amount of outs we have for improvment by the turn. I think calling here is good and then we can see what happens on the turn.

We are in a position that if we improve (we have a high chance to be ahead of LAG?) we can raise and charge the whole field 2BB. This may get us a free showdown against LAG and we will have around 8-9 outs on the turn if we don't already hold the best hand.

True

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The guy who led the flop was pretty laggy. He was 55/1.2/0 or something like that.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



That's LAGgy?

I got the stats wrong. He was 50/8/1.73. Isn't 1.73 postflop AF high for a 50vpip player? But stats aside, this guy was a super-freak. He liked to get busy with overcards/any pair/draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay. Raise.

[ QUOTE ]
This is a standard flop fold IMO, So I think you played this hand well. All you really have here is a draw to one pair, which may or may not be good if you hit it, or when you do hit it on the turn you can easily get rivered.

So you have six outs to a pair that will sometimes win the pot and other times just cost you more money when you lose. This means that you cannot count your draw as a six outer since you wont win every time you hit one of your outs. A better estimate would be that you have 3 pure outs in this situation, and if you add 1 pure out for your backdoor flushdraw you have 4 pure outs IMO.

Now you are gettin 11-1 to call with 4 pure outs, given this information it appears you have just enough to call, however there are 3 people left to act after you, so if you just call there is a decent probability that it will be raised behind you, thus lowering your true odds in this situation. Becuz of a chance of a raising coming behind you, you dont have the odds to call with your weak draw. So folding is the best move.

What about raising the flop?? What will a raise accomplish? Since there are 3 players behind you, I doubt you will be able to muscle them all out, so you will almost never get a free card with this raise, and when you run into a strong hand you will end up paying 3 bets on the flop when you could easily be drawing dead. If the pot were short handed with just one player behind you, then raising this flop makes sense since there is a decent chance the player behind you will fold thus giving you more strategic options on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need to recount your outs.

Easy raise.

[ QUOTE ]


Okay. Raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really admire the way you play and everything you add to topics that you post in and am intrigued as to why raising this flop is better than waiting till the turn to put in a raise against this aggro opponent?

True

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Okay. Raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really admire the way you play and everything you add to topics that you post in and am intrigued as to why raising this flop is better than waiting till the turn to put in a raise against this aggro opponent?

True

[/ QUOTE ]

Personally, I relate this to slowplaying, and slowplaying can bite you in the ass if someone draws out to the best hand because you gave them the pot odds to do so.

Slowplaying sucks.

[ QUOTE ]

Personally, I relate this to slowplaying, and slowplaying can bite you in the ass if someone draws out to the best hand because you gave them the pot odds to do so.

Slowplaying sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

We are waiting to see if we imrpove by the turn, if we don't we lose up to 4.5 outs....

Is it not better to wait until the turn and then face the whole field with 2 big bets thus having much more chance to clear up As / Ks ?

True

[ QUOTE ]
We are waiting to see if we imrpove by the turn, if we don't we lose up to 4.5 outs....

Is it not better to wait until the turn and then face the whole field with 2 big bets thus having much more chance to clear up As / Ks ?

[/ QUOTE ]

In a pot this big, you won't fold a flush draw. You have to charge them the max. However, you have nothing right now, so there's not much to protect by waiting until the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
We are waiting to see if we imrpove by the turn, if we don't we lose up to 4.5 outs....

Is it not better to wait until the turn and then face the whole field with 2 big bets thus having much more chance to clear up As / Ks ?

[/ QUOTE ]

In a pot this big, you won't fold a flush draw. You have to charge them the max. However, you have nothing right now, so there's not much to protect by waiting until the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just meant that, wouldn't it be better to wait for an equity increase before committing our chips?

True

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
Personally, I relate this to slowplaying, and slowplaying can bite you in the ass if someone draws out to the best hand because you gave them the pot odds to do so.

Slowplaying sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

So we should be raising to protect ace high?

[ghostface]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Personally, I relate this to slowplaying, and slowplaying can bite you in the ass if someone draws out to the best hand because you gave them the pot odds to do so.

Slowplaying sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

So we should be raising to protect ace high + 6 outs to improve to a probable best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

And if lagmeister 3 bets?

[jat850]

Basic SSHE says that when a bet comes from your immediate right you, in general, you should either raise or fold. Calling this hand does not look to be right under any circumstances. A raise is the best way to try and thin the field which is the way to protect a high card hand.

Second best choice would be to fold, but lots of folks have already pointed out the lost opportunities there and you had no way of knowing before the fact that there would be a raise behind you. I suspect that raise would have disappeared had YOU been the raiser.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is a standard flop fold IMO, So I think you played this hand well. All you really have here is a draw to one pair, which may or may not be good if you hit it, or when you do hit it on the turn you can easily get rivered.

So you have six outs to a pair that will sometimes win the pot and other times just cost you more money when you lose. This means that you cannot count your draw as a six outer since you wont win every time you hit one of your outs. A better estimate would be that you have 3 pure outs in this situation, and if you add 1 pure out for your backdoor flushdraw you have 4 pure outs IMO.

Now you are gettin 11-1 to call with 4 pure outs, given this information it appears you have just enough to call, however there are 3 people left to act after you, so if you just call there is a decent probability that it will be raised behind you, thus lowering your true odds in this situation. Becuz of a chance of a raising coming behind you, you dont have the odds to call with your weak draw. So folding is the best move.

What about raising the flop?? What will a raise accomplish? Since there are 3 players behind you, I doubt you will be able to muscle them all out, so you will almost never get a free card with this raise, and when you run into a strong hand you will end up paying 3 bets on the flop when you could easily be drawing dead. If the pot were short handed with just one player behind you, then raising this flop makes sense since there is a decent chance the player behind you will fold thus giving you more strategic options on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need to recount your outs.

Easy raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you see this draw as anything more than a 4 outer you are being too optimistic.

[SNOWBALL138]

"Why is raising better than calling?

I think that folding here is horrible due to the amount of outs we have for improvment by the turn. I think calling here is good and then we can see what happens on the turn.

We are in a position that if we improve (we have a high chance to be ahead of LAG?) we can raise and charge the whole field 2BB. This may get us a free showdown against LAG and we will have around 8-9 outs on the turn if we don't already hold the best hand.

True"



I like raising better than calling because I think I have the flop bettor beat pretty often. Because there's a ten on board, its kind of hard for players behind me to call unless they have a T, 2 overcards or an overpair.

[SNOWBALL138]

Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I didn't like my odds on the flop,


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



?????

I have 3 players left to act behind me so my odds are worse than they look. If the pot were bigger, it wouldn't matter much that I wasn't closing the action. Even if there's no raise on this round, I could easily get whipsawed for an uncomfortable amount of bets on the turn. I would have to stick around if a J or a spade came off and I wouldn't be profitting from the extra money that went in.

My odds aren't awesome. 11:1 is probably 1.5 more sb than I need if I was closing the action, but because I'm not, I'd like the pot to be a little bigger. If I didn't have both of the backdoor draws, then I think a fold would be in order.

With three backdoor draws, 2 overs, and a very realistic possibility that I have the flop bettor beaten, I like raising.

[EgoSlasher]

That's a really weak fold unless the guy betting into you is the biggest rock you've ever seen. the pot is big, you have odds to call, and you have no reason to think you're outs aren't clean. Don't raise into 3 people with ace high either. This play should be automatic

[crunchy1]

Any hand that our flop raise folds out that's either ahead of us (i.e. small pocket pair) or drawing live to 5+ outs is making a mistake by folding (whether they know it or not). There's a good chance given the PF/Flop action that we'll accomplish this against at least one, if not two+, opponents. Folding out hands that should be calling is obviously an advantage to us.

[Stealthy]

Given the risk of one or both of our pair outs being counterfeited or even the chance that we are drawing nearly dead to a strong made hand I do not think that a fold is terrible by any means.

However as the flop bettor is laggy I think that a raise is in order to try and get this HU. A call does not get us very far as a large variety of hands can call profitably behind us whereby they may have folded for 2 cold. I want to continue and raise here almost purely cause of the laggy stats not cause we want to go too far with our weak drawing hand. I don't think it takes much to turn this into a fold if -

1. Aggressive players behind us still to act

2. There is a caller between us and the flop bettor

3. No spade

4. Flop bettor has not shown any laggy tendancies

then I think a simple flop fold is best.

I have been re-evaluating my play with AK recently as it is not nearly as big a winner as it should be. This is cause I often take it too far.

Calling here is the worst of all options I think. Say a player to act behind us calls after we do with A4 (when he would have folded if faced with 2 cold) look how much trouble we are in when that ace falls.

Raising just about best for me but only for the reasons stated, folding a close 2nd with calling the worst of the 3.

[Yads]

This is a pretty easy raise, IMO. The pot is big, you have a chance to thin the field. You have likely 6 outs, discounting your overcard outs and adding some backdoor draws. Getting hands that could draw out on you if you hit, as well as hands like small PPs to fold is great. You're likely even money with the LAG as he's probably betting a draw into you, but the pot is big and you have to give yourself the best chance to win it.

I guess this does depend on the players behind though.

[SoCalPat]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is a standard flop fold IMO, So I think you played this hand well. All you really have here is a draw to one pair, which may or may not be good if you hit it, or when you do hit it on the turn you can easily get rivered.

So you have six outs to a pair that will sometimes win the pot and other times just cost you more money when you lose. This means that you cannot count your draw as a six outer since you wont win every time you hit one of your outs. A better estimate would be that you have 3 pure outs in this situation, and if you add 1 pure out for your backdoor flushdraw you have 4 pure outs IMO.

Now you are gettin 11-1 to call with 4 pure outs, given this information it appears you have just enough to call, however there are 3 people left to act after you, so if you just call there is a decent probability that it will be raised behind you, thus lowering your true odds in this situation. Becuz of a chance of a raising coming behind you, you dont have the odds to call with your weak draw. So folding is the best move.

What about raising the flop?? What will a raise accomplish? Since there are 3 players behind you, I doubt you will be able to muscle them all out, so you will almost never get a free card with this raise, and when you run into a strong hand you will end up paying 3 bets on the flop when you could easily be drawing dead. If the pot were short handed with just one player behind you, then raising this flop makes sense since there is a decent chance the player behind you will fold thus giving you more strategic options on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need to recount your outs.

Easy raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you see this draw as anything more than a 4 outer you are being too optimistic.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't possibly be serious about folding here.

First, you do have more than four outs. It's not many, but you can make a straight or the nut flush with what you have. There is no possible way you could be drawing dead here.

Second, if you're folding two overcards on the flop every time you're bet into getting 11-1, people will take shots at you all night long. I don't want to cultivate that kind of predictable image. This is small stakes still, where you'll get people betting out with all sorts of hands.

Raising is probably the best play. Merely calling is not a bad play. Folding is bad, not just because you might have the best hand (unlikely) or best draw (possible), but because you're screaming to the rest of the field: I AM WEAK-TIGHT!

[Stealthy]

Sry my post did not take enough notice of the back-door draws which strenghen the hand enough to make this raise correct against most opponents.

I was trying to make the point of peeling with just overs is very often incorrect even as a pre-flop raisor with AK.

Easy raise here.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is a standard flop fold IMO, So I think you played this hand well. All you really have here is a draw to one pair, which may or may not be good if you hit it, or when you do hit it on the turn you can easily get rivered.

So you have six outs to a pair that will sometimes win the pot and other times just cost you more money when you lose. This means that you cannot count your draw as a six outer since you wont win every time you hit one of your outs. A better estimate would be that you have 3 pure outs in this situation, and if you add 1 pure out for your backdoor flushdraw you have 4 pure outs IMO.

Now you are gettin 11-1 to call with 4 pure outs, given this information it appears you have just enough to call, however there are 3 people left to act after you, so if you just call there is a decent probability that it will be raised behind you, thus lowering your true odds in this situation. Becuz of a chance of a raising coming behind you, you dont have the odds to call with your weak draw. So folding is the best move.

What about raising the flop?? What will a raise accomplish? Since there are 3 players behind you, I doubt you will be able to muscle them all out, so you will almost never get a free card with this raise, and when you run into a strong hand you will end up paying 3 bets on the flop when you could easily be drawing dead. If the pot were short handed with just one player behind you, then raising this flop makes sense since there is a decent chance the player behind you will fold thus giving you more strategic options on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need to recount your outs.

Easy raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you see this draw as anything more than a 4 outer you are being too optimistic.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't possibly be serious about folding here.

First, you do have more than four outs. It's not many, but you can make a straight or the nut flush with what you have. There is no possible way you could be drawing dead here.

Second, if you're folding two overcards on the flop every time you're bet into getting 11-1, people will take shots at you all night long. I don't want to cultivate that kind of predictable image. This is small stakes still, where you'll get people betting out with all sorts of hands.

Raising is probably the best play. Merely calling is not a bad play. Folding is bad, not just because you might have the best hand (unlikely) or best draw (possible), but because you're screaming to the rest of the field: I AM WEAK-TIGHT!

[/ QUOTE ]
You are misanalyzing the situation here. The hero indeed only has 4 pure outs here, 3 pure outs for his overs, and 1 pure out for his backdoor flush. There is a reason why I am ignoring the backdoor straight out, since it would be runner runner gutshot, this should be counted as .5 pure outs, however given the heros poor relative postion in this hand(meaning if the hero does turn a gutshot draw, it could very easily get raised behind him on the turn) the backdoor straight should be discounted to 0 pure outs.

I'll move on to your next statement. "There is no possible way you could be drawing dead here" In multiway pots, there are actually many times when you will drawing dead with AK. All it takes is for someone to have A4, and another guy to have KT, and poof, the hero is drawing dead, or someone to have two pair or a set.

Also, generally speaking there are many times you should call with just overcards getting 11-1, but NOT IN THIS SITUATION. There are 3 people to act after the hero, the hero's relative position in the hand is horrible, the odds of a raising coming behind the hero are too significant to ignore. This factor lowers the hero's true odds to the point where the hero should fold. If you think the hero is getting 11-1 in this hand you are being naive.

Raising is the worst play here becuz all the hero has is a weak draw with horrible relative position, this is not a time to put more money in the pot. Calling is -EV becuz of all the reasons ive stated, but I will admit that if the hero always made these -EV calls he wont be losing much, but -EV is still -EV. Folding is the best play.

About "screaming weak tight" I dont think the hero should care about what others think of him, his job is to make the best decisions possible, and folding is the best decision.

To conclude, the pot odds the hero is getting is an illusion becuz of the heros bad relative position, and it is this bad relative position that makes folding better than calling and raising the worst of the 3 options.

[einbert]

This is one of the very few situations where I would raise in a multiway pot with an unimproved AK.

[daveymck]

I am surprised there is so much discussion on this seems a pretty standard raise to me, we are in an ideal position to protect our hand, if we can push out anyone with a pair behind or a baby flush draw whatever then we have improved our chances of winning the pot which is a decent size.

Yes sometimes we are behind to a set or whatever but then we act according ly on later streets as information comes to us , at this point there is no reason or info to make us fold and we want to make it as difficult as possible for those behind us so calling along is not good play.

If we were last to act and facing two or had everyone limp along then we can make more of a judgement call or fold, but here we can potentially use our bad position in our favour by getting the early raise in.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Okay. Raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really admire the way you play and everything you add to topics that you post in and am intrigued as to why raising this flop is better than waiting till the turn to put in a raise against this aggro opponent?


[/ QUOTE ]

Get rid of the other dudes in the pot, who likely are not wrong to call one bet on the flop and may indeed have to fold better hands to the raise (bottom pair, etc.)

[SNOWBALL138]

[ QUOTE ]
You are misanalyzing the situation here. The hero indeed only has 4 pure outs here, 3 pure outs for his overs, and 1 pure out for his backdoor flush. There is a reason why I am ignoring the backdoor straight out, since it would be runner runner gutshot, this should be counted as .5 pure outs, however given the heros poor relative postion in this hand(meaning if the hero does turn a gutshot draw, it could very easily get raised behind him on the turn) the backdoor straight should be discounted to 0 pure outs.

I'll move on to your next statement. "There is no possible way you could be drawing dead here" In multiway pots, there are actually many times when you will drawing dead with AK. All it takes is for someone to have A4, and another guy to have KT, and poof, the hero is drawing dead, or someone to have two pair or a set.

Also, generally speaking there are many times you should call with just overcards getting 11-1, but NOT IN THIS SITUATION. There are 3 people to act after the hero, the hero's relative position in the hand is horrible, the odds of a raising coming behind the hero are too significant to ignore. This factor lowers the hero's true odds to the point where the hero should fold. If you think the hero is getting 11-1 in this hand you are being naive.

Raising is the worst play here becuz all the hero has is a weak draw with horrible relative position, this is not a time to put more money in the pot. Calling is -EV becuz of all the reasons ive stated, but I will admit that if the hero always made these -EV calls he wont be losing much, but -EV is still -EV. Folding is the best play.

About "screaming weak tight" I dont think the hero should care about what others think of him, his job is to make the best decisions possible, and folding is the best decision.

To conclude, the pot odds the hero is getting is an illusion becuz of the heros bad relative position, and it is this bad relative position that makes folding better than calling and raising the worst of the 3 options.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you make a lot of good points. I wish someone would address them instead of just responding "clear raise and it isn't even close. do you see why? nyuck nyuck"

But I think you're ignoring the very very real possibility that I have the flop bettor beaten. What would you say if I was about 55 percent sure than I had the flop bettor beaten? Then I think you have to promote raising from "the worst of three options" to a pretty good choice.

[SoSo]

Bob Ciaffone would be pleased, although i would have peeled the flop getting 11:1.

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
To conclude, the pot odds the hero is getting is an illusion becuz of the heros bad relative position, and it is this bad relative position that makes folding better than calling and raising the worst of the 3 options.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think that you're overvaluing your stance on this factor. Hero's relative position is actually very good on the flop.

Put yourself in the other players position (the ones to act after Villian on the flop). These players limped PF - likely with speculative hands - and Hero raised from the blinds. Now the SB leads out the flop. I think this put's Hero in a very good position.

Like SNOW said - there's a decent chance that A-high is good HU against the LAGgy SB. Raising in this spot really puts some pressure on the remaining players left to act. Not only are they facing Hero's second raise - but they also must fear a re-reraise from the SB.

I think there's a pretty good chance that they all fold here. I also think that there's a least one hand in those three that is folding a hand ahead of Hero on the flop (or at least a hand that actually had outs to continue).

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
To conclude, the pot odds the hero is getting is an illusion becuz of the heros bad relative position, and it is this bad relative position that makes folding better than calling and raising the worst of the 3 options.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think that you're overvaluing your stance on this factor. Hero's relative position is actually very good on the flop.

Put yourself in the other players position (the ones to act after Villian on the flop). These players limped PF - likely with speculative hands - and Hero raised from the blinds. Now the SB leads out the flop. I think this put's Hero in a very good position.

Like SNOW said - there's a decent chance that A-high is good HU against the LAGgy SB. Raising in this spot really puts some pressure on the remaining players left to act. Not only are they facing Hero's second raise - but they also must fear a re-reraise from the SB.

I think there's a pretty good chance that they all fold here. I also think that there's a least one hand in those three that is folding a hand ahead of Hero on the flop (or at least a hand that actually had outs to continue).

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you and Snow are being very optimistic, but I do think you are right as far as I am overvaluing my stance on this one. I think I have written too much in this thread already, and its all over one small bet. I may be wrong in my analysis but for now I am convinced that folding is the best move here, then calling, and then raising. I am not trying to be argumentative, I think I have made it clear what my stance is. Its time to move one and agree to disagree. This was a good thread.

[SNOWBALL138]

SB had Ad9s, and UTG had 8cTc. I suspect more than a few people figured that out from reading the betting action though.
SB dragged the pot.

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
SB had Ad9s, and UTG had 8cTc. I suspect more than a few people figured that out from reading the betting action though.
SB dragged the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]
What do you estimate the chance of T8s folding to your flop raise was?

[SNOWBALL138]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SB had Ad9s, and UTG had 8cTc. I suspect more than a few people figured that out from reading the betting action though.
SB dragged the pot.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


What do you estimate the chance of T8s folding to your flop raise was?

[/ QUOTE ]


Maybe five percent. I saw him go to the river with ace high and call a final bet. Also he went to the river with middle pair another time. His WTSD was 42%

[ErrantNight]

i haven't even read this thread but i stopped here when i saw "all it takes is for someone to have and another guy to have A4 and another guy to have KT and poof, hero is drawing dead" because... that's just so amazingly false I can't even describe it.

Folding this flop is horrible. Now i'll read.

[ErrantNight]

you're so wrong on this.

(a) you probably don't have the flop bettor beaten. at least not yet.

(b) with opponents behind you, it's just as likely you actually have better odds than your immediate odds as it is you'll face worse odds if someone raises

(c) even if someone raises, you have sufficient equity to continue, rather easily

(d) your opponents most likely hands (to bet, call, or raise behind with) you have redraws against. possibly even cards that improve their hands, but give you a better hand

(e) if a J comes off your continuation will be depend on the actions

(f) if a spade comes off your equity is huge and continuing is easy

[ErrantNight]

yup.

but even if you didn't have 3 backdoor draws you should have come to the same conclusion.

[ErrantNight]

it's not time to move on.

you're not making a one small bet mistake.

you're making a POT mistake whenever you fold what would turn out to be the winning hand.

in other words, folding this flop is not only grossly incorrect, but it is a HUGE mistake that will cost you a LOT of money in both the short and long term.

making incorrect folds with this much equity in large pots is a terrible error.

[ErrantNight]

[ QUOTE ]

Slowplaying sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

No it doesn't. Here it does.

[ErrantNight]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a standard flop fold IMO

[/ QUOTE ]

You're a losing player.

[damaniac]

I agree with the strategy suggestion but I don't think with the analysis of the cost of the mistake.

Isn't it better to consider the cost of our mistake as a combination of the times we are behind and save money by folding and the times we are ahead and we lose the pot. The mistake isn't the whole pot but some fraction thereof based on how often we're good (and likely to be good at the end) as well as how many more bets on average we're losing when we continue and lose, etc. But "losing the entire pot" as a mistake is only the case if you would always finish with the best hand in a given situation right?

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
it's not time to move on.

you're not making a one small bet mistake.

you're making a POT mistake whenever you fold what would turn out to be the winning hand.

in other words, folding this flop is not only grossly incorrect, but it is a HUGE mistake that will cost you a LOT of money in both the short and long term.

making incorrect folds with this much equity in large pots is a terrible error.

[/ QUOTE ]

How often will you actually make the winning hand though?

It's obviously NOT a Pot-Sized mistake. We don't have 100% equity, obviously. We may not have 10% equity. I agree that I probably call here but I don't think folding is anything more than a 1 SB mistake. Think about it, we'd need to be getting an even money overlay on our call here to make folding be more than a 1 SB mistake. Do you really think we're winning this that often?

People need to stop thinking about "mathematical catastrophes" and stuff like that. This may be a costly error, but it's not a "POT mistake."

[ErrantNight]

your equity in this hand after that first bet goes in is much greater than 10%. folding here really is terrible.

no, it's not a pot mistake until the river when/if you're put to a decision for the entire pot.

and raising is better than calling.

[ErrantNight]

you're right. i was exaggerating and it was detrimental to my argument. to be more specific, what i said was flat out WRONG.

that said, so folding this flop, particularly as a standard play.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
This is one of the very few situations where I would raise in a multiway pot with an unimproved AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too...

I went on numerous tirades over the summer about how I thought people raised overcards too often, but, frankly, I can't see anything else I like doing here. This just happens to be a spot where it's going to be right. Pot size and relative position are the determining factors.

[SNOWBALL138]

quote] (a) you probably don't have the flop bettor beaten. at least not yet.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think he's betting any 2 overcards here, but he's also betting any pair. Assuming that he's completing any 2 there are more hands that contain two overcards than there are hands that contain a pair as far as I know. Maybe its less than half the time, but I doubt it.

[ QUOTE ]
(b) with opponents behind you, it's just as likely you actually have better odds than your immediate odds as it is you'll face worse odds if someone raises

[/ QUOTE ]

It doesn't matter if I'm just as likely to get better odds as I am to get worse odds, because the times I get worse odds are horrible, and the times I get better odds aren't really that great. You can't weight these two outcomes equally. When you get raised, your odds are almost cut in half. When you get overcalled they are increased by much less.

[ QUOTE ]
(c) even if someone raises, you have sufficient equity to continue, rather easily


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but I would wish that I had folded once it gets raised behind me. Calling two bets one at a time is just as
-EV as calling two cold.

[ QUOTE ]
(e) if a J comes off your continuation will be depend on the actions

(f) if a spade comes off your equity is huge and continuing is easy

[/ QUOTE ]
true.

[SNOWBALL138]

"I am surprised there is so much discussion on this seems a pretty standard raise to me, we are in an ideal position to protect our hand, if we can push out anyone with a pair behind or a baby flush draw whatever then we have improved our chances of winning the pot which is a decent size.
"

why would someone fold a small flush draw?
I agree with everything else you said. I think its a closer decision than other people are making it sounds though. I don't think I'm giving up a lot by folding, but I'm definitely giving up something, and pushing every edge you can find is what winning poker is about.

[ErrantNight]

your opponent is not betting any two overcards here. get that out of your head. he's betting pairs, flush draws, or straight draws. overcards check to the raiser the vast majority of the time. should you account for the possibility as an outside chance? perhaps... but you shouldn't presume that it's anything more than unlikely.

and it matters HUGELY if you're just as likely to get better than worse odds. and one of the MOST important things about this hand is that the turn will frequently give you, if not the best hand, redraws to the best hand. which means your implied odds can be large, and the turn can be easy to play. further, your opponents may face severe reverse implied odds.

If it gets raised behind you, you're certainly not happy, but it doesn't happen that frequently, and when it does, you've got enough chances to improve that it's not a travesty.