View Full Version : Chase the low draw?
Boolean
12-06-2005, 12:22 AM
I've found that I'm not sure how to deal with these types of hands. What kind of odds do you look for when you have just a backdoor draw to the nut low, or would you fold it regardless? Hand in question:
PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Omaha/8 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG folds, Hero calls.
Flop: (9 SB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, SB calls, BB calls, Hero calls.
Turn: (6.50 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, SB calls, BB calls, Hero calls.
River: (10.50 BB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, SB calls, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 calls, SB calls.
When I made my low, I decided to go for a check-raise here, figuring I probably have half the pot at this point. Thoughts?
Final Pot: 16.50 BB
benwood
12-06-2005, 01:52 AM
3rd:You're only going to backdoor this low about 1 time out of 6, & then you're only going to get 1/2 of the pot(or maybe only 1/4),but it's not all or nothing.If you miss on the first card,you can throw your hand away.On the flop,you're fetting 12 to 1 from the pot to peel one off,& nobody's behind you to possibly pop it.Looks right to me.
River:I like the check-raise.Looked like a good chance that MP1 was going to bet,& your position was perfect.Well played,imo. Ben.
I don't play much limit, but I believe the correct line is fold preflop (maybe call, right conditions), fold flop, fold turn, and call river.
I play pot limit only now but started at limit. Fold the flop. The only thing thats looks good to you is the Ace but the problem is you have a high board that you will have to chase to the river for your low. This will kill you in pot limit as well as limit, it will just take a little longer in limit to clean you out. Oh, and call the river.
I wouldn't even play this hand. I don't like playing hands that need somewhat major help and even if/when you get it you could still take a beat kinda easily.
benwood
12-06-2005, 04:30 AM
Folding the turn with this is absurd.
benwood
12-06-2005, 04:35 AM
On the river,the call is best if you don't like money.
benwood
12-06-2005, 05:00 AM
Hand 1:Yes,6432 single suited is a marginal hand but not unplayable.It plays considerably better in limit than no-limit.In Bill Boston's book,he shows that it takes some part of the pot over 24%of the time in a 10 handed game.Not bad.
Boolean - I think you want to see the flop as cheaply as possible with this starting hand. Ideally you want to see the flop for one small bet. That's because whether to continue or not is highly dependent on the flop, and because pre-flop raises tend to come from hands with better low possibilities (A24X, A35X, etc.). You might raise yourself with the hand if you raise a lot with A2XY (to disguise raises with A2XY), but you should generally hate to limp and then call a raise.
Trouble is, from MP1, you can't very well tell if there will be a raise behind you. One could make a good case for folding your 2d3d4h6d hand before the flop from MP1.
The above written, in a passive game, (rightly or wrongly) I'd probably limp and hope for the best from MP1 holding 2d3d4h6d. (But you can make a good case for folding 2d3d4h6d from mid-position).
Well... you did limp and then got raised. Ugh. At any rate, you call the raise and the raising ends there. Fine.
Now the flop comes with good news and bad news. The good news is there's an ace on the flop. The bad news is there are only 195 two-card combinations possible on the turn and river that make you the nut low. That's out of 990 possible two-card combinations. (Never a guarantee I counted perfectly - but 195 seems about right).
There are also some two-card combinations that make a non-nut low for you, but after a flop where you have no reasonable chance at high, you don't really want to count back-door non-nut low draws as worth much.
At any rate, after this flop you have about one chance in five of making the nut low for half (or less) of the pot. It's not a good enough chance to continue. The point is, when all you have is a backdoor low draw, you simply don't have favorable odds to continue.
Therefore you should fold after this flop.
But you continue and the turn is favorable, so again you continue. Fine. (Whatever you should have done on the previous betting round is water over the dam).
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When I made my low, I decided to go for a check-raise here, figuring I probably have half the pot at this point. Thoughts?
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After two checks with just one player yet to act, I think betting directly is your best course of action, better than going for a check-raise. You have a better chance of scooping if you bet directly (with everybody folding to your bet - happens quite a bit, actually).
More likely you will get half the pot three times out of five and a quarter or sixth of the pot two times out of five - (something like that).
Buzz
My VPIP is ~ 20%, which means I am on the tighter side of selecting starting hands (I play only limit, either 5-10 or 10-20).
I would play 2-3-4-6 from any position for one bet. I would never fold this hand unless I was sure I was going to have to play it for more than that, and even then I probably would play it unless I had reason to believe that most of the aces were out.
The hand has too much scoop potential on a low flop (especially suited, as yours is). Just play it well post-flop. That means folding on this flop without hesitation. Chasing like this is the expressway to losing.
I think you've got to fold this flop. You've realistically got no chance for high, so even if you make the low, you're playing for 1/2 the pot. The only high shot you've really got is a back door flush, and backdoor wheel, but the board is already paired.
Once you see the turn, you have to see the river since a card you were waiting for hit.
River check-raise is good, but I would have folded this flop.
Flop is a call IMO getting 8:1. The turn is a good card for your hand IF villain doesnt have A's full. River play is standard.
Dont take one off like this in PL, ever, though.
Tex
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Flop is a call IMO getting 8:1.
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Tex - But he's not getting 8 to 1.
He's only (realistically) playing for half the pot after this flop and since he needs two favorable cards, assuming the turn is favorable, he'll have to call another bet on the turn. That considered, I think he's getting no more than 3 to 1 implied pot odds for his portion of the pot. Meanwhile the odds against his making a winning low are in the neighborhood of 4 to 1.
Thus he truly does not have favorable odds to chase.
Buzz
His real implied odds were really closer to 5:1 when it was all said and done.
Assuming his will be the only nut low, and he can raise the river, which he did, and a great percentage of the time his low will take 50% of the pot, I find it correct to peel one here.
Sure it's close, but when I looked at the hand again and saw that he had company in the hand, I like the flop call.
Tex
Hi Tex - Try this:
Make four piles of chips.
Start each pile with two blue chips to represent the two small bets on the first betting round.
Next put three blue chips on three of the piles and three red chips on Hero's pile. These chips represent everybody's contribution on the second and third betting rounds, assuming a bet each round, no raises, and no folds.
Finally put four white chips on Hero's pile and four blue chips on the other three piles. These represent Hero being able to get in a double bet on the river with all three opponents calling.
Now stack Hero's pile on top of another pile and remove the four white chips from this pile. Hero has the three red chips of his own plus eleven blue chips. That's for the times he doesn't get quartered or sixthed.
Now put the four white chips back on top of Hero's pile and divide it into two equal piles. (When hero gets quartered, he only gets a quarter of the chips in the pot). Then again remove the four white chips from Hero's (fourth of the pot) pile. This time hero has the three red chips plus two blue chips. That's for the times Hero does get quartered. (We'll include getting sixthed with getting quarted and count them the same as getting quartered to keep it simple here).
***
Now
(1) make three stacks of eleven blue chips and two stacks of two blue chips, a grand total of 37 blue chips.
(2) Next, evenly divide them up into five piles. (Doesn't quite work, so make two of the five piles with an extra chip. No big deal.)
(3) Put three red chips on top of each pile.
The blue to red ratio represents Hero's implied pot odds after the flop, assuming Hero will split the low two times out of five, as is statistically expected.
Think Hero only splits low one time out of five? I don't, but fine. In that case make four stacks of eleven blue chips, one stack of two chips, and then divide the 46 chips evenly into five piles. (Again there will be one extra chip, so just make one pile on chip higher than the others). Now put three red chips on top of each pile. The blue to red ratio represents Hero's implied pot odds after the flop, assuming Hero will split the low one time out of five.
Looks to me like Hero is getting about three to one implied pot odds after the flop. And that's assuming Hero only has to split the low one time out of five, which, honestly, is low for a game of this looseness.
There is nothing tricky here (at least not intentionally). It's just straightforward reasoning, and probably giving the benefit of any doubt to Hero.
We could do it algebraically instead of graphically with the chips and it would work out about the same.
I don't care if I win this argument or not, Tex. If I'm wrong I sure hope you can show me how and straighten me out.
Otherwise, if I'm right, I hope I have straightened you out. I'm totally convinced that Hero doesn't have favorable odds to purely draw for low after a flop with only one low card.
And even if the betting had been capped on the first betting round, Hero still wouldn't have favorable odds to draw for low after this flop.
(But sometimes, as with this turn and river, or when you pull the handle of a low pay-off slot machine, you go against the odds and end up winning).
Thanks in advance for any corrections to my logic.
Regards,
Buzz
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Hi Tex - Try this:
Make four piles of chips.
Start each pile with two blue chips to represent the two small bets on the first betting round.
Next put three blue chips on three of the piles and three red chips on Hero's pile. These chips represent everybody's contribution on the second and third betting rounds, assuming a bet each round, no raises, and no folds.
Finally put four white chips on Hero's pile and four blue chips on the other three piles. These represent Hero being able to get in a double bet on the river with all three opponents calling.
Now stack Hero's pile on top of another pile and remove the four white chips from this pile. Hero has the three red chips of his own plus eleven blue chips. That's for the times he doesn't get quartered or sixthed.
Now put the four white chips back on top of Hero's pile and divide it into two equal piles. (When hero gets quartered, he only gets a quarter of the chips in the pot). Then again remove the four white chips from Hero's (fourth of the pot) pile. This time hero has the three red chips plus two blue chips. That's for the times Hero does get quartered. (We'll include getting sixthed with getting quarted and count them the same as getting quartered to keep it simple here).
***
Now
(1) make three stacks of eleven blue chips and two stacks of two blue chips, a grand total of 37 blue chips.
(2) Next, evenly divide them up into five piles. (Doesn't quite work, so make two of the five piles with an extra chip. No big deal.)
(3) Put three red chips on top of each pile.
The blue to red ratio represents Hero's implied pot odds after the flop, assuming Hero will split the low two times out of five, as is statistically expected.
Think Hero only splits low one time out of five? I don't, but fine. In that case make four stacks of eleven blue chips, one stack of two chips, and then divide the 46 chips evenly into five piles. (Again there will be one extra chip, so just make one pile on chip higher than the others). Now put three red chips on top of each pile. The blue to red ratio represents Hero's implied pot odds after the flop, assuming Hero will split the low one time out of five.
Looks to me like Hero is getting about three to one implied pot odds after the flop. And that's assuming Hero only has to split the low one time out of five, which, honestly, is low for a game of this looseness.
There is nothing tricky here (at least not intentionally). It's just straightforward reasoning, and probably giving the benefit of any doubt to Hero.
We could do it algebraically instead of graphically with the chips and it would work out about the same.
I don't care if I win this argument or not, Tex. If I'm wrong I sure hope you can show me how and straighten me out.
Otherwise, if I'm right, I hope I have straightened you out. I'm totally convinced that Hero doesn't have favorable odds to purely draw for low after a flop with only one low card.
And even if the betting had been capped on the first betting round, Hero still wouldn't have favorable odds to draw for low after this flop.
(But sometimes, as with this turn and river, or when you pull the handle of a low pay-off slot machine, you go against the odds and end up winning).
Thanks in advance for any corrections to my logic.
Regards,
Buzz
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Buzz, I tried this out, but I seem to be doing something wrong, and I suspect that I just am misunderstanding something you sort of went over too quickly here. Could you just embellish on this procedure a little more? It seems like you're leaving out some important details to conserve space or to sneak under a self-imposed word count, but I think that by condensing it you may have inadvertantly skipped a step or something.
TIA
benwood
12-07-2005, 01:27 AM
Buzz,I'm sure that you are correct when you say that the implied pot odds for him to win his portion are no more than 3 to 1 & that the odds against him making a winning low are around 4 to 1.However,it seems to me that these backdoor shots are a little bit diferent from a situation where you draw twice at the same thing,like an inside straight draw,for example.In this case,before the flop Boolean has 27 cards out of 45 to pick up a low draw,3 to 2 in his favor to do this.If he misses on obtaining the pick-up,he throws his hand away.When he "hits",he will receive about 4 to 1 from the pot to draw to either 20 or 21 cards out of 44,about 6 to 5 against.I know that having the ability to throw your hand away 1/2 way through the situation when it's not developing must improve the total situation quite a bit,but I'm not a good enough mathmatician to get a good handle on this.If you or one of the other posters could show me how it works,I would appreciate it greatly,Thanks. Ben.
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Buzz,I'm sure that you are correct when you say that the implied pot odds for him to win his portion are no more than 3 to 1 & that the odds against him making a winning low are around 4 to 1.However,it seems to me that these backdoor shots are a little bit diferent from a situation where you draw twice at the same thing,like an inside straight draw,for example.In this case,before the flop Boolean has 27 cards out of 45 to pick up a low draw,3 to 2 in his favor to do this.If he misses on obtaining the pick-up,he throws his hand away.When he "hits",he will receive about 4 to 1 from the pot to draw to either 20 or 21 cards out of 44,about 6 to 5 against.I know that having the ability to throw your hand away 1/2 way through the situation when it's not developing must improve the total situation quite a bit,but I'm not a good enough mathmatician to get a good handle on this.If you or one of the other posters could show me how it works,I would appreciate it greatly,Thanks. Ben.
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I think part of the problem is still that you're still playing for half the pot. The flop is high, paired, with a 2 flush. You have NO chance for high unless your opponents are complete idiots, and even then you might be drawing dead for high.
Let me try my hand at the math. If it's 3 to 1 with implied pot odds, and 3 to 2 in favor to pick up a low card on the turn. That's fine, but if there's a low card, you have to pay off ANOTHER bet on the turn to see the river. That's 1.5 big bets right there for 1/2 the pot. (I'll edit this in a second)
Edit:
Okay:
On the flop, there are 9SB in the pot, it's 11 SB in the pot when Hero makes the decision to call. According to Buzz, it's not the 6 to 1 odds, but you have to discount the odds for the times you get quartered so Buzz gives it about 3 to 1 to draw to a backdoor low. Assuming you make the call, there are 6.5 BB in the pot for the turn. There's a 3 to 2 shot to find a low card, in which case you need to likely call AT LEAST 1 more bet on the turn. So, instead of 1SB on the flop, it's a 6 to 5 shot of 1.5 BB. After turn betting, it's 10.5BB and let's say you're about 3 to 2 to hit your river low. You can check/raise as hero did to get to 16.5BB (but that might not always happen, since someone might fold). So, it's not just the 1SB on the flop, but 1SB for a 3 to 2 shot at risking 1 BB, for a 6 to 5 shot at getting 8.5BB.
Okay, I'm now confused. Someone help me out here?
Either way, you're drawing for a backdoor low with no chance at a scoop in a not mid size pot. I fold this without a second thought on the flop.
I wrote originally that 195 of the 990 possible two-card combinations for the turn and river make Hero the nut low.
I just re-tabulated and got 219. I must have transcribed a number wrong the first time or punched a number into my calculator incorrectly or somthing. I should have checked it more carefully yesterday before posting.
At any rate today I get 219 as the total number of possible two-card combinations for the turn and river than enable the nut low for Hero. I’ve checked the 219 a bunch of times, so that I think 219 is correct.
Thus I think the correct odds against Hero making the nut low are 771 to 219, or about seven to two, rather than about four to one.
My apologies for my error. Hope I’ve finally got it correct.
Doesn’t make much of a difference in terms of the final conclusion drawn (that Hero doesn’t have favorable odds to draw for a back-door low). But drawing for runner-runner low is not quite as bad as I represented it yesterday.
Again, my apologies for the error.
Buzz
I wrote:
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Meanwhile the odds against his making a winning low are in the neighborhood of 4 to 1.
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Change to: Meanwhile the odds against his making a winning low are in the neighborhood of <font color="red">3.5 to 1</font>.
Sorry for my error.
Buzz
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Let me try my hand at the math. If it's 3 to 1 with implied pot odds, and 3 to 2 in favor to pick up a low card on the turn. That's fine, but if there's a low card, you have to pay off ANOTHER bet on the turn to see the river. That's 1.5 big bets right there for 1/2 the pot. (I'll edit this in a second)
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Hi Jedi - Yes, that's the general idea. Thanks for the help.
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Okay, I'm now confused. Someone help me out here?
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There are two different major factors involved.
The first is that when Hero does make the nut low, he will not necessarily be the only one making the nut low.
The second has to do with (as Greg puts it) Hero "paying a tax" when he splits the pot. If Hero puts one chip into a three chip pot and wins the whole (four chip) pot, Hero wins three chips. But if Hero only wins half of the (four chip) pot, Hero actually only wins one chip.
And if Hero puts one chip into a three chip and wins a quarter of the pot, Hero breaks even and doesn't really win anything at all. (In real life, you don't count getting your own chip back as winning a chip; that logic only works in simulations).
I'm going to respond to Ben and maybe that will make it clearer. I thought my blue chip, red chip, white chip example worked, but FatNutz writes that it doesn't. I'll look at that again and then get back in my response to Ben. Might take me a while.
Meanwhile, may the force be with you.
Buzz
chaos
12-07-2005, 09:40 AM
I think of it this way:
The pot has 16.5 BB and you win half or 8.25BB. You put in .5 BB on the flop, 1 BB on the turn, and 2 BB on the river for a total of 3.5 BB. So in your half of the pot your profit is 4.75 BB.
While you were drawing you put in 1.5 BB to win 4.75 BB. So you got just over 3 to 1. This assumes you never get quartered or worse. So you odds are actually less. The odds of making a backdoor low are higher than the odds the pot is laying you so drawing to a backdoor low loses money.
Without backdoor straight/flush draws, yeah, he doesn't. But sometimes OP will make a two way hand here. When I said he was getting 8:1 to peel (?) I was taking into consideration he had a live backdoor high draw.
Also, his implied odds when he makes his low are decent, considering this hand was 4-way if I remeber correctly.
The hand is completely different if he just has 2,3.
A 5 on the turn gives him a semi-wrap, and any 2,3 or 4 gives him a wheel draw. Not to mention that any 5,6,7,8 gives him an uncounterfeitable low draw.
I think the only reason I'm really advocating a flop call is that this hand is 4-way, and some of the time OP will make a two way hand with his backdoor draws.
I also reccomend playing this game primarily on the turn, I feel flop play is secondary.
Also, I think a loose aggressive PF and flop strategy is correct in many O8B games, and that the turn is when you have to make more adjustments to your play.
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Without backdoor straight/flush draws, yeah, he doesn't. But sometimes OP will make a two way hand here. When I said he was getting 8:1 to peel (?) I was taking into consideration he had a live backdoor high draw.
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The board is paired (with high cards) with multiple opponents. What odds do you give of the backdoor high holding up, even if it hits?
gergery
12-07-2005, 04:45 PM
Taking a card off on the flop here is probably close to EV neutral
You are getting 12:1 there. Your low is worth ~3 outs and the backdoor straight and flush are probably worth 1 out. And with 4 outs you need ~10:1 odds so you just barely have it. But given the fact that you may face flop/turn aggression, might miss the river check-raise, might lose some opponents and their implied odds, and most importantly, might get quartered, makes it pretty close to even.
-g
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Good enough to peel one.
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I disagree. I discount the backdoor outs down to near zero. Normally, each backdoor flush/straight draw is worth 1 out each. I'd discount this to about .1 outs with the paired board and high hand. What kind of hands are staying in on this flop? Even if you're not drawing dead for high, any hand that contains a Ten in it would be staying in and taint your flush/straight outs. I think the discussion really should be limited to the backdoor low draw because of this. I could be wrong, but when you're looking for backdoor draws at 1/2 the pot which might not even be good if it hits, it just seems like a recipe for disaster.
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Good enough to peel one.
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I disagree. I discount the backdoor outs down to near zero. Normally, each backdoor flush/straight draw is worth 1 out each. I'd discount this to about .1 outs with the paired board and high hand. What kind of hands are staying in on this flop? Even if you're not drawing dead for high, any hand that contains a Ten in it would be staying in and taint your flush/straight outs. I think the discussion really should be limited to the backdoor low draw because of this. I could be wrong, but when you're looking for backdoor draws at 1/2 the pot which might not even be good if it hits, it just seems like a recipe for disaster.
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I second this. Flop fold seems trivially obvious to me.
Alright. Let's play heads up then, fish.
Tex
Spoof from edauers post in MHLHE
gergery
12-07-2005, 09:36 PM
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Good enough to peel one.
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I disagree. I discount the backdoor outs down to near zero. Normally, each backdoor flush/straight draw is worth 1 out each. I'd discount this to about .1 outs with the paired board and high hand. What kind of hands are staying in on this flop? Even if you're not drawing dead for high, any hand that contains a Ten in it would be staying in and taint your flush/straight outs. I think the discussion really should be limited to the backdoor low draw because of this. I could be wrong, but when you're looking for backdoor draws at 1/2 the pot which might not even be good if it hits, it just seems like a recipe for disaster.
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I second this. Flop fold seems trivially obvious to me.
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It seemed obvious to me too until I ran my excel spreadsheet counting specific cards with specific results. depending on what assumptions you want to use its relatively close.
-g
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Good enough to peel one.
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I disagree. I discount the backdoor outs down to near zero. Normally, each backdoor flush/straight draw is worth 1 out each. I'd discount this to about .1 outs with the paired board and high hand. What kind of hands are staying in on this flop? Even if you're not drawing dead for high, any hand that contains a Ten in it would be staying in and taint your flush/straight outs. I think the discussion really should be limited to the backdoor low draw because of this. I could be wrong, but when you're looking for backdoor draws at 1/2 the pot which might not even be good if it hits, it just seems like a recipe for disaster.
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I second this. Flop fold seems trivially obvious to me.
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It seemed obvious to me too until I ran my excel spreadsheet counting specific cards with specific results. depending on what assumptions you want to use its relatively close.
-g
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OK I'll bite. What assumptions? runner runner highs are going to win x% or something? Low's won't get quartered?
It'd be cool if you could share the spreadsheet. I think Gooper did that once somehow.
gergery
12-07-2005, 10:13 PM
Don't know how to do that. PM me i'll email it
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PM me i'll email it
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Yeah like I'm going to give you my email address so you can track me down and sodomize me? Nice try you sick fk.
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It seemed obvious to me too until I ran my excel spreadsheet counting specific cards with specific results. depending on what assumptions you want to use its relatively close.
-g
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Gergery,
What kind of assumptions are you making about other hands that are staying in? Any Ten will stay in the hand, and if it's not an ATxx hand, he's still got as many as 9 outs to have you drawing dead for hi. There may even be a hand with 2 diamonds in it, sticking around for some other draw and have you drawing dead to the diamonds.
I just don't see that the backdoor hi possibilities help in any way with this paired/2 flush flop. I think the analysis should really only be confined to the backdoor low draw.
gergery
12-08-2005, 02:31 AM
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It seemed obvious to me too until I ran my excel spreadsheet counting specific cards with specific results. depending on what assumptions you want to use its relatively close.
-g
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Gergery,
What kind of assumptions are you making about other hands that are staying in? Any Ten will stay in the hand, and if it's not an ATxx hand, he's still got as many as 9 outs to have you drawing dead for hi. There may even be a hand with 2 diamonds in it, sticking around for some other draw and have you drawing dead to the diamonds.
I just don't see that the backdoor hi possibilities help in any way with this paired/2 flush flop. I think the analysis should really only be confined to the backdoor low draw.
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I was assuming no value for high, since i think that will be good <2% of the time. and you see no flop/turn raise and get quartered ~20% of time and its ~EV neutral. give or take.
-g
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It seemed obvious to me too until I ran my excel spreadsheet counting specific cards with specific results. depending on what assumptions you want to use its relatively close.
-g
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Gergery,
What kind of assumptions are you making about other hands that are staying in? Any Ten will stay in the hand, and if it's not an ATxx hand, he's still got as many as 9 outs to have you drawing dead for hi. There may even be a hand with 2 diamonds in it, sticking around for some other draw and have you drawing dead to the diamonds.
I just don't see that the backdoor hi possibilities help in any way with this paired/2 flush flop. I think the analysis should really only be confined to the backdoor low draw.
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I was assuming no value for high, since i think that will be good <2% of the time. and you see no flop/turn raise and get quartered ~20% of time and its ~EV neutral. give or take.
-g
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I see. The discussion we were having with TxRedMan was really centered on the possibilities of the backdoor high adding value to the hand. I didn't think it did, but even if it doesn't, you're still saying that taking one off on the flop is neutral EV? Something just seems wrong there. I'll have to reread everything, but taking one off here for a backdoor low, no high possibility, for a potential 1/2 of the pot just seems to be contrary to everything I've been taught about Omaha.
gergery
12-08-2005, 03:40 AM
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It seemed obvious to me too until I ran my excel spreadsheet counting specific cards with specific results. depending on what assumptions you want to use its relatively close.
-g
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Gergery,
What kind of assumptions are you making about other hands that are staying in? Any Ten will stay in the hand, and if it's not an ATxx hand, he's still got as many as 9 outs to have you drawing dead for hi. There may even be a hand with 2 diamonds in it, sticking around for some other draw and have you drawing dead to the diamonds.
I just don't see that the backdoor hi possibilities help in any way with this paired/2 flush flop. I think the analysis should really only be confined to the backdoor low draw.
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I was assuming no value for high, since i think that will be good <2% of the time. and you see no flop/turn raise and get quartered ~20% of time and its ~EV neutral. give or take.
-g
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I see. The discussion we were having with TxRedMan was really centered on the possibilities of the backdoor high adding value to the hand. I didn't think it did, but even if it doesn't, you're still saying that taking one off on the flop is neutral EV? Something just seems wrong there. I'll have to reread everything, but taking one off here for a backdoor low, no high possibility, for a potential 1/2 of the pot just seems to be contrary to everything I've been taught about Omaha.
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that also assumes all the players who stayed in this hand actually stay in, ie. 4 on turn, 2 on river. I'm not saying its good, i'm just saying its close. Personally, I'd have folded on the flop. my point is only that its closer than it appears. and you can make some assumptions (ie. tight agro table) where its EV-
-g
Hi Ben - Keep in mind that I'm not a mathematician - just someone like you trying to make sense of it all.
Conclusion: Fold after a flop with only one low card when you have a back-door low draw but only a poor chance to win for high.
I'll explain this below.
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it seems to me that these backdoor shots are a little bit diferent from a situation where you draw twice at the same thing,like an inside straight draw
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Quite different.
I generally use two-card combinations in these situations, rather than two-card permutations. I'll do the math using two-card combinations.
After you have seen the four cards in your own hand and the three cards of the flop, there are 45 unseen cards for the turn and thus 990 unseen two-card combinations for the turn and river. If the 990 is unfamiliar to you, there are at least two ways to calculate the 990:
C(45,2) = 990. 45!/(2!*43!) = 990. Or simply (45*44)/(1*2) = 990.
At any rate, if you do not care about which card comes first, from the vantage point of a player who has seen one four-card hand plus the three-card flop, 990 is the total number of possibilities for the turn plus the river in Omaha-8. (Unless there are exposed cards, that’s our vantage point when we’re playing Omaha-8). Each of these 990 two-card possibilities is called a two-card combination.
Note that the result of dividing by 990 is not much different than dividing by 1000. And to divide by 1000, all you do is move the decimal point three places.
In truth, suits are very important in Omaha-8, much more important than in Texas hold ‘em. In a typically pre-flop-loose game, high is won by a flush somewhere in the neighborhood of one hand out of every four that goes to the showdown. (Many times flushes are beaten by higher flushes, full houses, quads or straight flushes). But at any rate, suits figure prominently in the play of hands in Omaha-8.
However, for the purpose of purely figuring your chances of making low, suits don’t matter. Holding 2346 after a flop of AAT, you will end up with:
• a wheel 36/990 (the nut low plus a chance to win high)
• the nut low 183/990 (but no realistic chance at high)
• the 2nd nut low 27/990, and
• no low 744/990.
The above is tabulated and calculated, not simulated.
I think the above break-down is correct. The numbers 24, 195, 27, and 744 are subtotals from a 90 line chart I made listing every possible two card combination given this hand and this flop. My method was tedious and there were lots of places to go wrong - but I've checked it over this time and feel certain my numbers are correct.
I’ll save the chart for a while, and if you or anyone else I believe wants to see it, I’ll replace each tab with five dots and post it. No big deal - just seems pedantic for me to post it without a request to do so.
I read a number incorrectly and didn't check my math the first time through. My bad. You don't really need a complete complete chart and I didn't make one for the first post or the correction. But I did make a full chart this time.
The exact numbers from the chart aren't something to remember. What you have to remember is the conclusion shown in the second paragraph of this post.
At any rate, whether to continue or not after the flop always depends on various factors which vary from game situation to game situation.
One of the factors, the possibility of making the nut low hand, purely involves the cards you, yourself, hold and the particular cards on the flop. This does not vary from game to game.
Although the particular combination of opponents I face varies from table to table and varies from the start of a session to the end at any particular table, I don’t think I ever face a combination of opponents such that I have favorable odds to show a profit by playing what is almost purely a back-door low draw after the flop. Thus the conclusion shown in bold type in the second paragraph of this post.
It’s not the starting hand, 2346s, that is poor here. It’s the combination of the starting hand with the flop, 2346s/ATTn.
There is a slight chance this 2346s hand will win high after a flop of ATTn seen by five opponents, but that chance seems too slight to give much consideration. Hero’s best chance (by far) to win high involves making a wheel, but with three (out of five) opponents staying after this flop, even if we give the three non-folding opponents random cards, Hero only scoops about 2%, and that is almost exclusively with a wheel when no opponent makes a full house or backs into a winning flush.
Of the 2.7% Hero ends up making the 2nd nut low, I think Hero will not lose to the nut low about half and will lose to the nut low about half.
Thus I think Hero with 2346/ATT probably will:
• scoop ~2%,
• win half the pot for low ~13%,
• win a quarter or a sixth of the pot ~9%, and
• lose ~76%.
Since it’s very difficult to know what kind of hands Hero’s three opponents would be playing after this flop, I’m just making semi-educated guesses, based mainly on simulations and my own experience.
In real life, I think after both a turn and a river both favorable to Hero, at least one of Hero’s three opponents very well may fold, and if that doesn't happen, then I think Hero is probably getting quartered or sixthed. When Hero ends up with a scooper, somebody who flopped trips but didn’t improve may pay him off, but there’s also a distinct possibility Hero may end up not collecting from anybody when he makes a wheel that is a scooper.
When I wrote my blue, red, white colored chips example for Tex, I was bending over backwards to give Tex's point of view the benefit of the doubt. I thought the chip stacking demonstration might be able to clearly and graphically demonstrate that Hero did not have 8 to 1 implied pot odds, nor even 4 to 1 implied pot odds. Maybe the directions for the colored chips example were not entirely clear. I could possibly make them clearer if someone I believe thinks that might be helpful to him/her.
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In this case,before the flop Boolean has 27 cards out of 45 to pick up a low draw,3 to 2 in his favor to do this.If he misses on obtaining the pick-up,he throws his hand away.When he "hits",he will receive about 4 to 1 from the pot to draw to either 20 or 21 cards out of 44,about 6 to 5 against.
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That approach is going to involve permutations rather than combinations. I don't think permutations is the easiest way to look at this situation. (See above).
However, I guess you can use permutations to get the solution.
If you do, I think Hero folds when the turn is A, 9, T, J, Q, or K, a total of 21 (not 18) cards, and you end up with:
• 21/45 Hero loses one bet and folds,
• 8/45*24/44 Hero loses one small bet plus one big bet and folds,
• 8/45*20/44 Hero makes nut low,
• 3/45*23/44 Hero loses one small bet plus one big bet and folds,
• 3/45*21/44 Hero makes nut low,
• 4/45*24/44 Hero loses one small bet plus one big bet and folds,
• 4/45*9/44 Hero makes a wheel
• 4/45*11/44 Hero makes nut low,
• 9/45*23/44 Hero loses one small bet plus one big bet and folds,
• 9/45*4/44 Hero makes a wheel,
• 9/45*11/44 Hero makes nut low.
• 9/45*6/44 Hero makes 2nd nut low.
Phew! I think that's all of it. I haven't computed, and collected terms, but I think if you leave all the denominators alone, you probably end up with twice the totals I did using 990 above.
The denominators for this second method are all going to be 1980 because this second method uses permutations rather than combinations. Notice that 1980 is twice as big as 990.
Lot's of places to go wrong in these (rather tedious) computations. At any rate, I think you can approach the solution in either of the two ways outlined above (basically by using either combinations or permutations).
I feel a bit sheepish trying to explain this, since I'm not a mathematician.
Buzz
P.S. What the heck, let's see if it works:
• 21/45*44/44 = 924/1980.... -1
• 8/45*24/44 = 192/1980.... -3
• 8/45*20/44 = 160/1980.... nut low,
• 3/45*23/44 = 69/1980.... -3
• 3/45*21/44 = 63/1980.... nut low,
• 4/45*24/44 = 96/1980.... -3
• 4/45*9/44 = 36/1980.... wheel
• 4/45*11/44 = 44/1980.... nut low,
• 9/45*23/44 = 207/1980.... -3
• 9/45*4/44 = 36/1980.... wheel,
• 9/45*11/44 = 99/1980.... nut low.
• 9/45*6/44 = 54/1980.... 2nd nut low.
Collecting terms:
• 924/1980.... -1
• (192+69+96+207)/1980.... -3
• (160+63+44+99)/1980.... nut low
• (36+36)/1980.... wheel
• (54)/1980.... 2nd nut low
Combining terms:
• 924/1980.... lose one small bet
• 564/1980.... lose three small bets
• 366/1980.... nut low
• 72/1980.... wheel
• 54/1980.... 2nd nut low
Looks like the numerators add up to 1980. (That's my first check).
And the wheel, nut low, and 2nd nut low permutation totals are twice as much as for combinations shown above. (That's my second check).
Now we just have to decide what the nut low is worth and what the wheel is worth.
I don't think they're worth enough to me to make up my losses by continuing after the flop when drawing mainly for runner-runner low in my typical games.
O.K., I think I'm done.
Again, let me emphasize I'm not a mathematician, just an Omaha-8 player and enthusiast.
Buzz
chaos
12-09-2005, 10:08 AM
Nicely done!
Boolean
12-09-2005, 01:55 PM
Wow, just wow. My little post has really encourage some really great discussion. I for one want to thank you all, most of all Buzz for his incredible analysis, for your insight. I will be taking Buzz's conclusion to heart as it makes complete sense to me. Also, thanks for the insight on the preflop call. It's a marginal hand, I know. I like playing marginal hands from time to time, leftover from my Hold'em days. I'll quit that.
Again, thanks all.
[ QUOTE ]
When I wrote my blue, red, white colored chips example for Tex, I was bending over backwards to give Tex's point of view the benefit of the doubt. I thought the chip stacking demonstration might be able to clearly and graphically demonstrate that Hero did not have 8 to 1 implied pot odds, nor even 4 to 1 implied pot odds. Maybe the directions for the colored chips example were not entirely clear. I could possibly make them clearer if someone I believe thinks that might be helpful to him/her.
[/ QUOTE ]
The colored chips example was one of the first I saw Buzz use to show how much more valuable scooping is rather than splitting. If you haven't gone through these exercises yourself yet, I suggest you do so. Greg Raymer talks about liking split pot games because opponents make more mistakes. Understanding these split-pot concepts will go a long way to correcting these mistakes.
gergery
12-09-2005, 02:40 PM
So what is the conclusion then –how much of a mistake is chasing here, and what odds does Hero need to make chasing correct?
Nitpick – win half 13%, win a quarter 9% -- that seems awfully high, I’d think you get quartered less than that.
Great work as always buzz,
-g
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Again, let me emphasize I'm not a mathematician, just an Omaha-8 player and enthusiast.
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Thats an understatement. Nice work Buzz.
benwood
12-09-2005, 09:40 PM
Buzz & Gergery:Thanks a lot. You guys are the stone cold nuts.
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So what is the conclusion then
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Hi Greg - I think whether or not you can show a profit with this hand after this flop and early betting depends on how many of your opponents chase and whether there are raises on the 2nd and 3rd betting rounds.
If they all chase to the river and there’s no more raising, then I think you average a profit by continuing after the flop. However, if they make it expensive for you to chase, and if one or more of them drops out, then you’d do better to fold.
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how much of a mistake is chasing here....?
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I would classify taking one off here as a small mistake.
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what odds does Hero need to make chasing correct?
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Very difficult to estimate because we don’t know how Hero’s opponents are going to play on subsequent betting rounds.
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Nitpick – win half 13%, win a quarter 9% -- that seems awfully high, I’d think you get quartered less than that.
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Very reasonable. Not a nit-pick at all. Thanks for the calling attention to the matter. After giving it more consideration, I think <font color="red">win half 15%, win a quarter 7%</font> is better here. I'll try to explain.
I think getting quartered or sixthed for low depends somewhat on what the nut low is, and it also depends on how many opponents were originally dealt cards (and to a lesser extent on how many opponents actually saw the flop). I think typical opponents will see the flop when dealt A2XY, A3XY, or 23XY.
Then, when the nut low ends up being ace-deuce, ace-trey, or deuce-trey, in a typical nine player low limit game, I think:
• 61.07%, you have sole possession of low,
• 34.68, you get quartered for low,
• 4.17%, you get sixthed for low, and
• 0.08%, you get eighthed for low.
I don’t try to remember those numbers. And anyhow they’re a bit different for more or less than nine opponents being dealt cards, and they also depend on the propensity of your opponents to play starting hands with A2XY, A3XY, or 23XY. Rather than remember those exact numbers, I remember that you tend to not split the low about 3/5 and you tend to get quartered (or sixthed) the other 2/5 with any of these three hands.
There are varous factors operating here, some in opposition to others. At any rate, I can easily remember 3/5 and 2/5 - and that’s at least in the ball-park, which is good enough for me under game conditions.
In my experience, players typically “take one off” when they have a nut-low back-door draw.
But you’re right. I estimated the magnitude of getting quartered on the basis of the 23XY being the nut-low on the river (as it actually was in this case). If 24XY or 34XY ends up as the nut low on the river, then I think at least some players will have folded a hand that would have quartered Hero. After a flop of ATT, when Hero does back-door the nut-low with 2346, the deuce-trey combination is actually only used about 59% of the time, with the deuce-four or trey-four combination being used the other 41% of the time. (You can never make the nut low using a card other than a wheel card from your hand - so that any combination involving the six from 2346 is not the nuts for low).
Obviously how often you get quartered or sixthed depends on how pre-flop tight your opponents are, but I think almost all of my opponents, rightly or wrongly, are going to tend to see the flop with A2XY, A3XY, or 23XY. (X and Y, rightly or wrongly, can typically be almost anything).
When it comes to A4XY, a few will tend to fold.
When it comes to 24XY, or 34XY, a few more will tend to fold.
At any rate, since some of your opponents will tend to pre-flop fold 24XY or 34XY, I agree "win half 13%, win a quarter 9%" is a bit high. I think win half 15%, win a quarter 7% is probably better for 2346 after a flop of ATT. (Win half 16%, win a quarter 6% seems too low for getting quartered or sixthed). Keep in mind that to keep it simple, I’m giving Hero the same credit in chips won for getting sixthed as getting quartered. Although the chance of getting sixthed is not great enough to cause much concern, it’s not minuscule either. The ratio of getting quartered for low to getting sixthed for low with A2XY, A3XY, or 23XY in a typical nine handed game is roughly eight to one. (However, the probability of getting eighthed is miniscule and not much different from getting sixthed anyhow).
Does that extra little bit (win half 15%, win a quarter 7% instead of win half 13%, win a quarter 9%) make it over the hump so that playing a nut back-door low draw with back-up becomes +ev? Gee, I don’t know. I don’t think so, but it’s really hard to know with much certainty how a group of unknown opponents are going to play after an ATT flop.
I have played in a private games where Hero should probably “take one off” here. I hate to admit that because I think it’s generally bad advice to suggest or imply drawing exclusively for back-door lows is worth while. That’s just my opinion.
Although it seems only a small mistake to take one off here, you can dribble away a lot of chips making small mistakes against decent opponents. In addition, when you chase on the second betting round, you tend to get stuck for additional bets on later betting rounds because of the size of the pot.
That's just my opinion.
Buzz
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