Middle Pair

[Scotch78]

MP1 is 16/8/20)2/3/3) (VP$IP/PFR/WSD(AF-F/AF-T/AF-R)) after 90 hands.

What's your plan from here?

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (5.50 SB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero . . .

Scott

[michaelp]

Probably better to bet the flop yourself IMO. Though you are only ahead of smaller pocket pairs and AK

Having not done that, this pot doesn't seem worth the effort, unless you feel it worth paying to find out more about villian.

[Nick C]

The flop check is good. MP1 is going to autobet anyway.

So then, do I like my hand enough to checkraise? My first instinct is no.

But, anyway, here are some combos:

AA = 6
KK = 3
QQ = 3
JJ = 1
AQ = 12
KQ = 9
AJ = 8

TT = 6
99 = 6
88 = 6
AK = 12
AT = 16

I think we should discount AT a bit, though, and maybe 88 as well, since Villain hasn't been all that aggressive preflop so far.

All right, so I like check-calling the flop. And, you know, on the turn, there's a good chance Villain is betting AK again, so I don't really mind check-calling there as well. However, a lead would deny a free card, if you're not too worried about a semibluff raise. And Villain's Went to Showdown numbers are low. I guess you might be able to blast Villain off of AJ with a checkraise. But I don't really think much of your fold equity here (at least versus better hands you'd like Villain to dump).

On a blank, I think bet-folding the turn could be best, but I do worry that it might look like a bet-fold line to an aggressive TAG and invite a bluff-raise or semi-bluff raise. Also, on a blank, you'd prefer for Villain to bet an underpair again, if he will, rather than for him to either fold or raise (if you're bet-folding).

Ugh. I don't know. Playing a marginal hand out of position against a TAG is difficult. I don't really mind check-calling the whole way here.

[oxymoron]

I fold preflop UTG. If I'm going to play this I prefer to checkraise on the flop or turn knowing that this is a player that will only call (20% WTS) or raise with a hand and I can let mine go.

However, check calling this mediocre hand is terrible IMO

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold preflop UTG. If I'm going to play this I prefer to checkraise on the flop or turn knowing that this is a player that will only call (20% WTS) or raise with a hand and I can let mine go.

However, check calling this mediocre hand is terrible IMO

[/ QUOTE ]

I think there's a very real risk that Villain will 3-bet with a worse hand on the flop.

Well, a lot of 5/10 TAGs would, anyway, and that's what I'm getting used to these days.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold preflop UTG.

[/ QUOTE ]

You shouldn't.

Let me guess, your vpip is, like, 14%?

[W. Deranged]

Check-call, check-call, check-fold.

If we can be confident that villain wouldn't value bet TT or AK u/i on the river, then this is probably the best line. This gets us to the river against hands like TT and 99(which will check behind the river the vast majority of the time). It doesn't give those hands and easy opportunity on the turn to fold. We get to see both the turn and the river to try to improve. Given our hand and the board texture, the only hands that have a lot of outs on us that aren't already ahead are AK and AT (probably suited... this isn't that likely). AK is often going to bet the turn again anyway, or call a river value bet if the turn gets checked through. I think what we forgo by not betting the turn against specifically AK is made up in other ways.