KQs - turn chase?

[pokernicus]

Recently joined table, so no real reads. Comments on flop and turn play are especially welcome.

2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, CO folds, Button folds, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.25 BB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (9.25 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 11.25 BB

[shark6]

I'd check the flop.

You bet PF because you have a pot equity edge. However, with that flop you no longer have a pot equity edge and you aren't folding out 3 cold callers plus the BB. So check/call flop, check/fold turn UI unless you have odds to continue.

[KNOCKAHOMA]

Semi-bluffing with 2 overs and a gut shot on the flop is OK, but after being raised I may have folded on the flop. I definetly check/fold the turn. Looks like you probally pulled in some chips when the Q hit, but over the long haul chasing=losing.

[MrEngenic]

Flop is so so, lot's of players and you don't want to be raised. Turn call is fine you only need 5 outs to continue.

I'm not sure what to do on the river if I hit. Probably check/raise a straight, check/call a Q and bet a K.
I'm interested in what others have to say about donking a Q. I generally don't like donking

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure what to do on the river if I hit. Probably check/raise a straight, check/call a Q and bet a K.
I'm interested in what others have to say about donking a Q. I generally don't like donking


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm more inclined to checkraise a stright and a queen, and bet a king.

[MrEngenic]

Checkraise a Q? I'm not sure I would be so gutsy isn't that taking it a bit too far? What if he 3bets. Fold? I hate checkraising river and folding to a 3bet with decent hands.

[krimson]

I think the turn "chase" is the most obvious part of this hand? 4 fully clean outs to a gutshot, and the overs are worth 3-4. Getting 1:8.25 in a HU pot, easy call.

Flop i'm not so sure, with all those players who cold-called two acting after me I may just c/c this. The pot is too big to really imagine your shaking off any dominating hands here unless you think AQ will fold for 1 bet.

River looks good, he may not like the overcard that just fell, and i'd rather go 1-2 bets then 0-3.

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
Checkraise a Q? I'm not sure I would be so gutsy isn't that taking it a bit too far? What if he 3bets. Fold? I hate checkraising river and folding to a 3bet with decent hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Honestly, what 3-betting hands here do you possibly beat? If you c/r a queen here, its a very easy fold to a raise. If you can't find the fold button, then just bet. But not being able to fold there is not good.

I don't often advocate a raise then fold for one more bet. I think its overused round here and some folks get a bit too carried away. But I think this could be a good spot for it....

[ QUOTE ]
Semi-bluffing with 2 overs and a gut shot on the flop is OK, but after being raised I may have folded on the flop. I definetly check/fold the turn. Looks like you probally pulled in some chips when the Q hit, but over the long haul chasing=losing.

[/ QUOTE ]

After the flop raise your getting like 1:13 to call back that raise, with two overs and a gutshot. I cant imagine folding there.

[gopnik]

cannot fold the turn, you are getting better than 8:1 odds with 4 clean outs and 6 dirty outs. So, with a discount, have 7 outs. It would be a bad fold getting 8:1 with 7 outs.

[The_Curtain]

I would bet the flop. Some PF raiser always autobet which isn't the best, but I don't think this one of those times. With two overs, a gut shot and a bd flush draw your hand is pretty strong. The raise behind you actually could be beneficial and increase your equity if it folds a hand you are reverse dominated by.

Turn is defiantly a c/c, I wouldn't want to have to pay two for the river. Getting 8-1 with two overs and an 11-1 draw to the nuts this is an easy call.

River is a value bet.

[pokernicus]

Thanks for all your replies! Here's my analysis on the hand. Comments are always appreciated.

I was a little unsure whether the flop bet was correct. At the time, I figured that if I get at least some people to fold then there's a worthwhile equity gain (i.e., I am buying outs as if I make a hand like a pair of Queens or Kings, it has a better chance of being the best if fewer people are in the hand).

When SB raised, I put him on either a hand with a Jack or a set (in either case, there are straight possibilities, so he didn't want anyone to see the turn for cheap). In terms of possible combinations, a hand with a jack is at least as likely (if not more likely).

With gutshot outs (4 outs), overcards (normally 6 outs, but probably best to discount to about 3 outs), and a backdoor flush (about another 1.5 outs or so), calling the flop raise is a no brainer.

I have the correct odds to call the turn (assuming he doesn't have a set).

On the river, I thought check-raising might be an option. But there were two reasons I didn't go for it:

1) If I check the river, I have basically played my hand like a draw, and if my opponent puts me on a busted draw, he probably doesn't think I am likely to call any bet, so he might just check the hand through. Not to mention that if all he has is a pair of jacks at this point, then the Q is not a card he likes to see on the river (an overcard that completes a straight -- as KTs is a small possibility for a hand I might have).

2) If I check raise, he might fold a pair of Jacks, but three bet with a hand that beats me.

This makes me think that a straightforward value bet on the river is my best option.

Here are the results in white:
<font color="white">My opponent showed down AsJs for a pair of jacks, and MHIG.</font>