Tourney hand, cash game hypothetical

[cjmewett]

This was presented to me as a tournament hand, and some debate ensued re: how the hand should be played in a cash game. I've converted to units appropriate to $1/$2. Obviously the stacks are gonna be short for cash game discussions, but it shouldn't affect the math.

Villain in MP has $50. Hero covers.

SB posts
BB posts
Hero (UTG+1) open-limps with J /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/spade.gif
Two more limpers, including button, blinds call

FLOP ($12)
9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Hero leads for $16, one fold, button pushes for $48, folded around to hero. $32 to call, $76 in pot. Hero's action?

Intuitively I said clear fold, but I ran the numbers and figured a close call (need ~65%ish certainty that villain hasn't already filled to be profitable). I coulda messed up the math, though. Let's not consider the action up to this point, either; it's not mine and I don't agree with it, so you're preaching to the choir.

If somebody could run out the math on this I'd be appreciative. I know it's a very basic question, but I'm trying to prove a point.

[rwanger]

Not going to do the math right now (at work), but if your numbers are correct, then you'd obviously call right?

I can say with 99% certainty that no one in the history of poker has pushed a flopped boat as the villian in this scenario. Or call me crazy, maybe they were worried giving free cards to running quads or the straight flush draw?

[cjmewett]

[ QUOTE ]
I can say with 99% certainty that no one in the history of poker has pushed a flopped boat as the villian in this scenario.

[/ QUOTE ]I think this is very wrong. Fastplaying is the new slowplaying. A flop overbet looks like you're gonna get action, so as a shortstack why not get it in there? I push Q9/99 here a lot.

[rwanger]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is very wrong. Fastplaying is the new slowplaying. A flop overbet looks like you're gonna get action, so as a shortstack why not get it in there? I push Q9/99 here a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was exaggerating slightly, but do you seriously push boats in position with such a short stack? Maybe I understand headsup if you know your opponent will probably call anyway. But multiway? With a short stack? If you aren't looking for as much action as possible here in a tourney, I think you may be missing out on some chips.

It's happened to me a few times lately where I pushed weaker hands than a boat against an opponent who I thought would call, only to have them fold. In position, with this short of a stack, just call. You'll be easily able to get it in on the turn and river, with bets small enough that an opponent with any piece of the board won't be able to fold.

I love fastplaying sets and flopped straights, but generally NOT fullhouses, especially against a board with VERY legitimate flush and straight draws. Fullhouses will almost exclusively be outdrawn by hands that wouldn't have folded anyway (like JsTs, or AQ).