Does a tiny baiting river bet ever work?

[rwanger]

Let's say you're down to the river and have a hand that's pretty good but not invincible (like 2 pair, maybe trips, or even 1 high pair).

Given the action, it's pretty clear that no one has anything, and you've built a LAGgish image, where people are aware that you can bluff, and will try to buy pots with position.

You're in position and it gets checked to you. Does it work to make a tiny bet, hoping for someone to try and bluff raise you off your hand?

Thinking about it, this may have value, but I'm not sure. If you make a reasonably sized bet, everyone is going to fold. So if you bet small (like 1/5th of the pot or so), someone could take a shot at you? Even if they have a HUGE hand, they probably won't make a HUGE checkraise either, because they don't think your hand is that good, and want to give you the chance to call with something weakish.

Is this just crazy enough to work?

[Ghazban]

I don't think it works so well in position. You will already get a lot of pretty loose calls when there hasn't been much action on earlier streets and you put in a bet last to act on the end.

Betting small to induce a raise works much better out of position as some players in these games are aware of the blocking bet concept and will raise when they feel you are trying to get a cheap showdown.

[JKratzer]

You'd have to be against a pretty aggressive opponent for this to work. I think much more often someone will look you up with a weak hand, hoping to catch you bluffing.

In situations like you described, with the right image, I like to make "bluff-size" bets. Say, 3/4 pot - full pot seems about right. This works out great if one or more of your opponents likes to make big calls. They think you're full of it and call with middle pair.

JKratzer

[Kirkrrr]

From my experience, if the action went
Flop: check check check check,
Turn: check check check check
River: check, etc etc ...
.. no one has a hand they are willing to invest any chips with, so no brilliant strategy can make someone wake up all of a sudden, take interest, and decide to aggressively go after it. Bet half-pot, hope someone calls. Majority of the time, no one will.

Kirk

[Leptyne]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think it works so well in position. You will already get a lot of pretty loose calls when there hasn't been much action on earlier streets and you put in a bet last to act on the end.

Betting small to induce a raise works much better out of position as some players in these games are aware of the blocking bet concept and will raise when they feel you are trying to get a cheap showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. This is a blocking bet OOP. With position I try to make it look like a steal, maybe pot + 10%, or a "call me" bet, maybe ~1/2 pot. All of these require thinking players.

Of course thinking players are going to check in front to induce a bluff. Know your opponents, keep notes, vary your play. Give the fish an occassional break.

[rwanger]

[ QUOTE ]
Give the fish an occassional break.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, maybe I should do that occasionally /images/graemlins/smile.gif

But seriously, your opponent must be someone you think is capable of making a move on you because he thinks you're making a move. What if you value bet 1/2 the pot, and then he raises? You've pegged him as a player capable of making amove on you, but you have no idea if he's raising with the goods or making a move. And it's expensive as hell to find out.

If you put him on nothing, make a suspicious "raise-me" bet, his raise will be easier to call, and more likely to be a move (since it's going to be hard for him to make a move on you when you bet 1/2 the pot or the full pot on the river).

BTW...this is me trying to convince myself it's something I should try out once or twice. But I'm half expecting that the ensuing discussion will talk me out of it.

Ive had some success with this play in the right situations. Often, if I am certain my opponent has a missed draw, and I have position on him, I will fire a simply insulting bet. He knows he cannot call as there is 0% chance he is ahead, and folding to a bet like that would be embarassing to him and show everyone at the table what a fish he is. Whats his only option if he wants to go out like a man? You got it. He pops me and pays me off.

This isn't considering a small multiway pot, this is HU where villain has been fishing + missed and you are fairly certain of it. If action is multiway check check check on all 3 streets, someone might call your tiny bet with a tiny piece of the board, and this would be a value bet. You could likely bet much more and get looked up by worse holdings. Then again, I hope it didnt go c/c/c on flop and turn if you had any of the hands you described /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[tdomeski]

Very few people will bluff check raise a small bet into a small multiway pot on the river. If you have a good image you can just bet the pot on the river when checked to with those holdings and expect to be called by worse.

[rwanger]

Just as a clarification, I started thinking about this after reading this (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=4103415&an=0&page=1# Post4103415) thread. In that case, there had been a bet, a call, a huge raise, and two calls on the flop. It was checked around on the turn, then checked to hero on the river.

So, to simplify, I am not talking about a scenario where it gets checked all the way around. There has to have been SOME betting on earlier streets, both so that the pot is worth taking in said manner, and because you'd need to be able to come up with some sort of legit read on your opponent(s).

[Leptyne]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say you're down to the river and have a hand that's pretty good but not invincible (like 2 pair, maybe trips, or even 1 high pair).

Given the action, it's pretty clear that no one has anything, and you've built a LAGgish image, where people are aware that you can bluff, and will try to buy pots with position.

You're in position and it gets checked to you. Does it work to make a tiny bet, hoping for someone to try and bluff raise you off your hand?

Thinking about it, this may have value, but I'm not sure. If you make a reasonably sized bet, everyone is going to fold. So if you bet small (like 1/5th of the pot or so), someone could take a shot at you? Even if they have a HUGE hand, they probably won't make a HUGE checkraise either, because they don't think your hand is that good, and want to give you the chance to call with something weakish.

Is this just crazy enough to work?

[/ QUOTE ]

EVERYONE'S A PUSSY! Pussy Link (Natedogg's (Tafkan) Rule of Thumb)

Ever since I read this I put it into practice. It works extremely well. In this case it means unless I'm trying to put a play on a specific opponent, which is not often, then I'm going to put in a bet that is sized to take down the pot and I will fold to a check-raise.

[rwanger]

Link doesn't work.

[Leptyne]

[ QUOTE ]
Link doesn't work.

[/ QUOTE ]

Copied and pasted from MS Word copy. Try this one copied from the Archives.

Pussy Link (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=plnlpoker&Number=171029&Fo rum=,f5,&Words=&Searchpage=1&Limit=25&Main=170951& Search=true&where=bodysub&Name=315&daterange=1&new erval=&newertype=&olderval=&oldertype=&bodyprev=#P ost171029)

I checked this link before posting and this should take you right there.

[savman]

Ghaz,

with regard to the weak lead oop i think this is a great play to use against an agressive opponent and FAR superior than checking to induce a bluff from an aggro opponent. sometimes when i am oop against an aggro opponent and i have been betting the whole way and i feel like he is on a draw....i check. then i puke b/c i keep telling my self i should have be weak into the pot. the weak bet still gives our aggro villain a chanve to bluff at the pot, plus if he improved to some sort of weak hand. e.g. Kxx flop two tone and say he is calling with A10s and rivers a ten, checking to induce a bluff here is horrible, and i am pissed when i do it, if i bet weak he can still bluff with a missed draw but he can also look me up with some weak hand he "accidentally" made along the way. not to mention some of the time my read is off or it is a stubborn QQ JJ, who then sends me an x-mas card for giving him a cheaper showdown.

[rwanger]

[ QUOTE ]
Ghaz,

with regard to the weak lead oop i think this is a great play to use against an agressive opponent and FAR superior than checking to induce a bluff from an aggro opponent. sometimes when i am oop against an aggro opponent and i have been betting the whole way and i feel like he is on a draw....i check. then i puke b/c i keep telling my self i should have be weak into the pot. the weak bet still gives our aggro villain a chanve to bluff at the pot, plus if he improved to some sort of weak hand. e.g. Kxx flop two tone and say he is calling with A10s and rivers a ten, checking to induce a bluff here is horrible, and i am pissed when i do it, if i bet weak he can still bluff with a missed draw but he can also look me up with some weak hand he "accidentally" made along the way. not to mention some of the time my read is off or it is a stubborn QQ JJ, who then sends me an x-mas card for giving him a cheaper showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

Define "weak bet".

You bring up a good point, but I am talking about making a bet that isn't even worth the money if called, only if bluff-raised. But maybe that answers the question. H

ow much you'd make betting 1/5 3 times, versus 3/5 every time. Maybe the 3/5 would be called often enough to make it profitable.

But I've been VERY aware of my WAWB situations lately, and there is no reason to make a standard bet in that situation because it is only called/raised when you're behind.

I'm not looking for a solution for what to do on every river situation, just the ones where you have a good read on your opponent and "know" that he has nothing.

[savman]

rwanger,

by weak bet i mean 1/5 pot or so. when i make this bet i am almost certain he was on a draw. if i make a 3/5 pot bet and he has made a weak hand like middle pair how often is he calling? well this is opponent dependant but i have no way of knowing he has made a weak hand, sure if i knew it he rivered 2PTK, or was a stubborn qq etc. i would make a larger bet; but, since i think he is almost always on air i like the 1/5 bet.


when u say weak bet do u mean a bet weaker than 1/5? i rarely, if ever, make a bet less than 1/5 pot and hardly ever make a 1/5 pot bet. but i think 1/5 pot bet has value when villain has made very weak hand that has some showdown value. if nothing else he may calling thinking "hey i have a pair and it is only x amount of dollars to call", and really think nothing of the call; whereas hero can squeak out a little more value from what is essentially a missed draw.

[pokerjoker]

bet pot. make it look like a bluff and hope to get called by a weaker hand. I have almost never seen anyone check raise when someone on the end bets a small bet.

Pretend you are in EP and have mid pair. Why on earth would someone who could just check it at the end bet 1/5 pot? its too small for a bluff. its too small for value.

At least if u bet pot ur opponent has to decide if its a bluff or value bet. If you can make it look like a missed flush draw or something thats even better.

The only time I could ever consider betting a small ammount is against an uber donkey that reraises ANY small bet. I would also have to read that he doesn't have a hand and would fold if I potted it to him so they only way to get money in is to induce a bluff.

[ninjia3x]

[ QUOTE ]


You're in position and it gets checked to you. Does it work to make a tiny bet, hoping for someone to try and bluff raise you off your hand?

Is this just crazy enough to work?

[/ QUOTE ]

In my exprience no, not many ppl check/raise to re-steal on the river with air. It just doesn't happen very often at all. And when u do get CR big, u might even be beat. Bad idea.