$25NL - getting killed again..

for the last week or so I have been playing back down at $25NL tables as I managed to trim my BR down to about $200...

over the last 10 sessions I have played this kind of thing keeps happening to me. - I sit at a table - I play good poker for a while and win a number of reasonable pots then I get a good hand on the flop - feel sure I am ahead - in goes the money and either ..

a) I'm wrong and am in fact WB
b) I'm WA and Villain hits a runner runner str8 or some other miracle happens and has the best hand by the river.



Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (Villain)/ (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

MP ($37.15)
CO ($48.55)
Button ($32.31)
SB ($11.80)
BB (Villain)/ ($24.50)
Hero ($21.85)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
Hero calls $0.25, MP calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB (poster) completes, BB (Villain)/ checks.

Flop: ($1.25) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, Villain checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets $0.25</font>, CO folds, SB folds, Villain calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25.

Turn: ($2) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Villain checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets $1</font>, Villain calls $1, Hero calls $1.

River: ($5) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Villain bets $15</font>, Hero ???

9th hand at table - no reads
yes I know I am slowplaying this hand (badly) - although with the type of player Villain is I doubt they would have folded their trip kings at any point in the hand... (later this session Villain proved to be a bit of a calling station)

I play TAG poker - I think maybe I am being too aggressive at just the wrong time?

a number of times I have lost a buy-in pushing at a big draw e.g. TPGK + NFD - which haven't come in and Villains hand holds up...

The point of this post is to ask basically what am I likely doing wrong?

I think my game is just about to get to the pont of breaking even over the long run - or starting to show a small profit.

over 5k hands at $25NL I am down $260 (full ring)
over 7k hands at $50NL I am up $20 (full ring)

I am stuck in a downswing again and need to do something to pull myself out of it.

should I carry on playing as I am - it's mostly variance - and it will all even out?

Switch poker sites? - change is as good as a rest?

give up?

any advice, critcism and general flamage is greatly appreciated..

[Allinlife]

bet pot bet pot raise pot stack Kx

get.money.in.the.middle.with.high.equity

post more..any thing less than 10k hands is so small that it's meaningless

[soko]

You're closing the action on the turn, There is absolutley no reason to slowplay in this case because if you think you have the best hand you can easily raise and give your opponents odds that they think are good enough to call agian, and if anyone is slowplaying kings, they may reraise and you can push.

As for the river, Villian appears to be drawing and a draw hits the river, what else do you hope for?

[4_2_it]

I am not a big fan of the slow play, but I think once you get two flush draws on the river, you call and pray the flush shows up. As played, out the rest of you chips in on the river.

Normally, you probably want to bet out on the flop. Any king is coming along for the ride and the flush might scare him off. You need someone with a second best hand or a flush draw. Give the flush nice odds because you want him to hit.

If you are questioning your game, move down a level or two to build up your moral or do what I do and don't play for a couple of days or week. 5k and 7k samples are not a big deal. Don't be results-oriented. Make good decisions. Don't get discouraged when the fish suck out. They need to suck on occasion to get the poker boom going.

[EMcWilliams]

I dont really know what you are afraid of here...SHOVE IT!

I would bet about 1/2 pot on the flop, make it look like a feeler bet, a little weak. Your opponents may suspect you for a weak king or a pocket pair that didn't get help. You'll get action from a king or another pocket pair (or sometimes even an ace-high that thinks you're bluffing). Don't bet super small, but not strong enough that you run flush draws out, in fact you're hoping that they make their flush/straight if they're drawing against your full house. You want to build the pot up, and at $25NL, very very few players will suspect you for a flopped full house, and a king will probably come along for the ride. If he catches his kicker to make a bigger boat, well that's poker.

In this particular hand, I push on the river. There are so many hands that we beat (spade flushes, Kx that didn't fill up). He has been checking and calling the whole way, which usually reeks of a spade draw or a king at $25NL. If he has K2 or K5 (or an extremely unlikely K4), that's poker.

[ QUOTE ]
I am not a big fan of the slow play, but I think once you get two flush draws on the river, you call and pray the flush shows up. As played, out the rest of you chips in on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

did that - basically this hand I know I have a fh - and I am praying that one of the 2 villains is on a fd - that will hit by the river so I can stack them.

spades flush hits - villain bets big (so I put them on a spade flush) I pushed - and villain flips over K5 for a better boat...

[ QUOTE ]

If you are questioning your game, move down a level or two to build up your moral or do what I do and don't play for a couple of days or week. 5k and 7k samples are not a big deal. Don't be results-oriented. Make good decisions. Don't get discouraged when the fish suck out. They need to suck on occasion to get the poker boom going.

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks for the encouragement.

I can shrug off bad beats - thats just poker. What is starting to get to me tho is that it Keeps happening to me. out of the last 10 sessions where I have lost a buyin - 3 losses were due to donkish play - 7 were suckouts.

In that same time period - I have finished a session up a buyin *once*

I read many posts on these forums about PP $25NL being pretty easy to beat - posters who start out with $44 and in the course of a w/e build a bankroll of a few hundred $ - just playing ABC poker. I try very hard to play ABC TAG poker - and while I admit that quite often I make expensive mistakes - I don't think that long term my game is a losing one - and I am not sure how much more $ I can afford to lose to find out...

Didn't play at all yesterday - to take a break - and I am at the lowest NL already...

Last week I got so frustrated I went to a play money table - started playing super loose aggressive - hit an amazing run of cards and left up $20k - felt lots better - came back to the "real" tables and started losing again...

[pokernose]

I don't mind the slow play here, although it wouldn't fit my style. I'm too aggressive for it not to be obvious. The spade was your dream card on the river. I would shove all my chips in the pot here.


As to the down swing, I'm coming out of one myself. The first thing I suggest is to take a break. Take a week off and clear your head. Once the week is done, change some things up. I decided to learn Omaha 8 and play it a few times a week. I jumped right in to the pot limit game so that I can transfer some of my NLHE skills over. It's helping me regain my focus and improve at both games.

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
out of the last 10 sessions where I have lost a buyin - 3 losses were due to donkish play - 7 were suckouts.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is good. Losing consistently to suckouts is the sign that you are making good decisions. All you can do is get your money in while you are a favorite. The psych forum has some threads about how to handle downswings. I think you will find it worthwhile reading.

[ QUOTE ]
Losing consistently to suckouts is the sign that you are making good decisions.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have just printed this out and stuck it on my wall /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[poincaraux]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't mind the slow play here, although it wouldn't fit my style. I'm too aggressive for it not to be obvious.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is a great point. One of the big advantages of aggressive play in general is that it lets you get paid off when you actually hit a big hand.