20/40 river play

[private joker]

Nice 20/40 game at Commerce.

Four limpers to me in the BB with black eights. I check my option.

Flop comes 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif

SB, a loose but weak player, bets out. I raise, a LAGgish (but thinking) player in MP cold-calls, folded to SB who calls.

Turn is Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB checks, I bet, MP and SB call.

River is 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

SB checks...

Is this a standard bet/fold? Am I better off checking to induce a bluff from MP's potential missed draw? Is a worse hand calling a bet here?

[Solami17]

Since you are taking the innitiative with 2 others in the hand, a bet/fold here is probably best. The flush is there and the Q may have hit someone, but it depends on what hands you put the others on

[gaming_mouse]

joker,

LAGs like to bluff at scary, drawy boards. i think induced bluff >> value here. will LAG call with any pair?

[Chris Daddy Cool]

a LAGish thinking player will still realize that he has to bluff out two other opponents when he knows his hand will look like a missed draw to them, so i think his bluffing freqency is a little less than you you'd think.

there are still plenty of hands IMO that call this river bet, esp. SB with his 7.

I'd value bet it and cringe when someone flibs Q4 or Q8... I think the sb has either J5 or J7.... certainly fold to a raise

[brettbrettr]

edit: I misread it. I'd bet here. I'm not sure that MP would try to run a bluff on two guys, and SB will probably call with top pair. If they're both on draws, you weren't getting another bet anyway.

[ErrantNight]

he'll call with a 7

[ErrantNight]

not when it looks like they missed against 2 opponents

[DeathDonkey]

[ QUOTE ]
a LAGish thinking player will still realize that he has to bluff out two other opponents when he knows his hand will look like a missed draw to them, so i think his bluffing freqency is a little less than you you'd think.

there are still plenty of hands IMO that call this river bet, esp. SB with his 7.

[/ QUOTE ]

Totally agreed, just using some simple assumptions, MP has to bet 50% of the time here to be worth as much as just betting yourself, letting him fold, and getting SB to pay off.

-DeathDonkey

[onegymrat]

Hi Joker,

It depends on the aggressiveness of your opponents. As a new player, I would definitely check/call, but I don't know how well you know the table. I would not want to bet/fold against an unknown and have the potential to get moved off the pot with a 7 (which MP sounds like), yet there are hands that beat you with the way the weak players play at Commerce (Q or 6). You should be very interested in seeing a showdown rather than being "clever" and bet/folding.

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
Nice 20/40 game at Commerce.

Four limpers to me in the BB with black eights. I check my option.

Flop comes 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif

SB, a loose but weak player, bets out. I raise, a LAGgish (but thinking) player in MP cold-calls, folded to SB who calls.

Turn is Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB checks, I bet, MP and SB call.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are very likely ahead at this point. The MP thinking LAG probably pops the turn with a flush, set, and slowplayed flopped straight (he wouldn't put you on a flush). He wouldn't play a queen with any side card that hits this flop (unlees the emphasis in on "L" in LAGish /images/graemlins/smile.gif ). He would raise pre flop with better pairs in hand. He wouldn't cold call a flop raise with non spade overcards with this board.


[ QUOTE ]
River is 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

SB checks...

Is this a standard bet/fold? Am I better off checking to induce a bluff from MP's potential missed draw? Is a worse hand calling a bet here?

[/ QUOTE ]

This should be a good card for you. You should be the one betting, the board is scary but it should be scary to them based on your play up to this point. This means MP isn't as likely to try bluff betting or thin raising on what you think is a scare card. Also keep in mind the player likely to call with a worse hand is the SB.

If MP raises and SB folds you have a tough decision given it's Commerce (not the land of easy laydowns).

~ Rick

[private joker]

Thanks Rick, well said. You make me happier that I did go ahead and decide to bet. MP folded and SB called with 84o, the flopped straight. Indeed it was a scary board for him to get aggressive, but it sure was a surprise to see his hand.