is this graph crazy swingy or is it just me?

[Subfallen]

http://img216.imageshack.us/img216/624/graph4tr.th.jpg (http://img216.imageshack.us/my.php?image=graph4tr.jpg)

[Cumulonimbus]

Yes.

[Subfallen]

kay should i up my aggro i don't know right now i am playijng 33/24/2.5 its a high variance style

[bugstud]

http://img205.imageshack.us/img205/1589/bah19nj.jpg

[timprov]

Seriously? That's practically a straight line. It's just you.

[Victor]

thats pretty mild dude.

[Escape]

:| 55k hands in 22 days? Insane

[threeonefour]

Bugstud: your graph doesn't look much swingier if at all. you have 1/4 the winrate so your graph only goes up 1/4 as high on the vertical axis. so visually those look like larger swings than subfallen but when you take into account the scale and the winrate you can see they are not that much different.

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
Bugstud: your graph doesn't look much swingier if at all. you have 1/4 the winrate so your graph only goes up 1/4 as high on the vertical axis. so visually those look like larger swings than subfallen but when you take into account the scale and the winrate you can see they are not that much different.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah I'm really bad at poker

btw, look at the graph again

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
Bugstud: your graph doesn't look much swingier if at all. you have 1/4 the winrate so your graph only goes up 1/4 as high on the vertical axis. so visually those look like larger swings than subfallen but when you take into account the scale and the winrate you can see they are not that much different.

[/ QUOTE ]

bugstuds graph is way swingier. thats the nature of a shortterm graph tho. winrate doesnt factor into it.

Wish mine looked like yours

[threeonefour]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bugstud: your graph doesn't look much swingier if at all. you have 1/4 the winrate so your graph only goes up 1/4 as high on the vertical axis. so visually those look like larger swings than subfallen but when you take into account the scale and the winrate you can see they are not that much different.

[/ QUOTE ]

bugstuds graph is way swingier. thats the nature of a shortterm graph tho. winrate doesnt factor into it.

[/ QUOTE ]

i am pretty sure it isn't... remember that a 2bb/100 player going on a 200BB downswing over 10K hands is basically the same as a .5bb/100 player going on a 350bb downswing over 10K hands.

also: winrate absolutely does factor in.

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bugstud: your graph doesn't look much swingier if at all. you have 1/4 the winrate so your graph only goes up 1/4 as high on the vertical axis. so visually those look like larger swings than subfallen but when you take into account the scale and the winrate you can see they are not that much different.

[/ QUOTE ]

bugstuds graph is way swingier. thats the nature of a shortterm graph tho. winrate doesnt factor into it.

[/ QUOTE ]

i am pretty sure it isn't... remember that a 2bb/100 player going on a 200BB downswing over 10K hands is basically the same as a .5bb/100 player going on a 350bb downswing over 10K hands.

also: winrate absolutely does factor in.

[/ QUOTE ]

this makes now sense.

last time i checked 350>200.

[threeonefour]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bugstud: your graph doesn't look much swingier if at all. you have 1/4 the winrate so your graph only goes up 1/4 as high on the vertical axis. so visually those look like larger swings than subfallen but when you take into account the scale and the winrate you can see they are not that much different.

[/ QUOTE ]

bugstuds graph is way swingier. thats the nature of a shortterm graph tho. winrate doesnt factor into it.

[/ QUOTE ]

i am pretty sure it isn't... remember that a 2bb/100 player going on a 200BB downswing over 10K hands is basically the same as a .5bb/100 player going on a 350bb downswing over 10K hands.

also: winrate absolutely does factor in.

[/ QUOTE ]

this makes now sense.

last time i checked 350>200.

[/ QUOTE ]


it makes a lot of sense. if a losing player (-4BB/100) loses 1,000BB in a year. do you say he is on a 1000BB downswing? of course not, because he's not swinging at all. going 1000BB is not a rare event, in fact it was what was supposed to happen at the 25K hand mark.

a swing is a deviation from your expectation. over 10K hands a 1BB/100 player should make 100BB. if he is down 100BB people call this a 100BB downswing. this is a much rarer event than a 100BB downswing for a .5BB/100 player because he was only supposed to make 50 BB over those 10K hands. so he is still down 100BB but is only off 150BB from his expectation, rather than 200.

you see what i am getting at? bugstud's graph isn't really swingier, when the slope of his graph goes from +.5 to -3 that is less of a swing than sub's swing from a slope of +2 to -3.

there is actually a statistical test for how 'swingy' a graph is and the point of my post was just to say that perhap bugs graph is swingier but it hard to tell by how much with the naked eye. and that if bug's is in fact swingier its not by some large amount and probably a lot less than you would expect at first glance.

[bugstud]

you're being a little gung-ho on what the bb/100 of the sample here is, sir.

[Subfallen]

[ QUOTE ]
you're being a little gung-ho on what the bb/100 of the sample here is, sir.

[/ QUOTE ]

haha i think "a little" is being too nice

[threeonefour]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you're being a little gung-ho on what the bb/100 of the sample here is, sir.

[/ QUOTE ]

haha i think "a little" is being too nice

[/ QUOTE ]


everything i said takes into account the fact that the 2BB/100 and .5BB/100 are estimated winnrates and not actual winrates. poor estimates even.

[Victor]

im not arguing rarity.

all i know is that when i lose 300bb i am on a 300bb downswing no matter how rare or common it is.

[imported_CaseClosed326]

Bah, this is crazy swingy

http://img478.imageshack.us/img478/8301/90k3wy.jpg

[Victor]

thats nuts.

[imported_CaseClosed326]

What's nuts is that I started that graph at 1/2. Now I am playing 5/10...

[PokerBob]

it took you 90K hands to do that?.....amateur.

http://img224.imageshack.us/img224/9981/all3pn.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[beset7]

dude from 42k to 49k is insane.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
dude from 42k to 49k is insane.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, i'm not too thrilled about it.

[imported_CaseClosed326]

I knew you would come by and one up me...or one down me...

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
I knew you would come by and one up me...or one down me...

[/ QUOTE ]


believe me, i wish i couldn't. surfbullet is still the winner (loser) in my book.