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View Full Version : Can I peel flop here?


DeathDonkey
12-05-2005, 04:14 AM
15/30 full online. I raise UTG+1 with K /images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ /images/graemlins/heart.gif folded to preflop LAG postflop passive button who coldcalls. BB now 3 bets - he is tight TAG like 20/4 we both call.

Flop is T /images/graemlins/spade.gif9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif3 /images/graemlins/club.gif and BB bets.

-DeathDonkey

hobbsmann
12-05-2005, 04:21 AM
maybe I'm missing something, but this looks like a really easy peel.

jason_t
12-05-2005, 04:38 AM
[ QUOTE ]
maybe I'm missing something, but this looks like a really easy peel.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, it's much closer than that. Hero has a gutshot and two overs. Our overs could be dominated by the 20/4's three-bet and could have reverse implied odds associated to them. While a /images/graemlins/spade.gif won't necessarily give someone a flush, it will set up redraws. Although there is no reason to fear a flush draw, it does decrease our equity. We're subject to redraws from 99/TT. Finally another thing to consider is that a turn J setups a redraw for AK and JJ. We're immediately getting 10.5:1 but we aren't closing the action. I think this is a fold but it's close to being close.

PokerBob
12-05-2005, 04:39 AM
nope

Chris Daddy Cool
12-05-2005, 04:54 AM
getting 10.5-1 immediately with a passive behind me i'm peeling.

Jeff W
12-05-2005, 05:01 AM
http://www.istockphoto.com/file_thumbview_approve/466725/2/Banana_Peel.jpg

Joe Tall
12-05-2005, 05:48 AM
For the record, I played this hand as DD sweated me spewing off 25BBs in one of the greatest games ever.

I really think you all should take a better look and think about this hand beyond, "it's 10:1 I call" thoughts.

bernie
12-05-2005, 05:54 AM
I'd fold.

b

Chris Daddy Cool
12-05-2005, 06:08 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I really think you all should take a better look and think about this hand beyond, "it's 10:1 I call" thoughts.

[/ QUOTE ]

fwiw, it is 10.5 to 1. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

i'm not saying its super easy and jason_t outlined why its close, but i still think its a little closer to a call then a fold. if the guy behind us was aggressive i would think folding is better, but the OP said he was passive.

bernie
12-05-2005, 06:16 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I really think you all should take a better look and think about this hand beyond, "it's 10:1 I call" thoughts.

[/ QUOTE ]

fwiw, it is 10.5 to 1. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

i'm not saying its super easy and jason_t outlined why its close, but i still think its a little closer to a call then a fold. if the guy behind us was aggressive i would think folding is better, but the OP said he was passive.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't raising be better than calling?

b

Chris Daddy Cool
12-05-2005, 06:30 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Wouldn't raising be better than calling?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not really interested in paying 3 bets to see the turn. and what does raising do?

DeeJ
12-05-2005, 07:33 AM
I don't think you can fold for 1 bet. the King might be good enough for you if you're up against AQ or JJ or QQ in BB, but he might also have AA/KK/TT/99 which really messes up your day. I like KQo myself but UTG+1 is a bit early to open with, as a 3-anywhere behind will leave you wondering where you are on a Qxx Kxx flop (ie losing to AQ/AK/QQ/KK but not beating much). If you get your offsuit Jack I think you have sufficient implied odds to make enough BB on the river. But it is close.

AceHigh
12-05-2005, 01:31 PM
I call. You've got to have 4 outs, although a 3rd spade will set up redraws for others, you also have implied odds because I don't see BB folding unless 4 spades get there and he doesn't have any.

12-05-2005, 02:38 PM
I think this is a fold too. Factoring in the range of hands that could be beating a K/Q should it come, so only 3 reliable outs - and the flush redraws etc I'd guesstimate working odds at something like 15/1. Easy fold for me. I don't like the raise for a free card on that board, either.

Joe Tall
12-05-2005, 07:23 PM
[ QUOTE ]
No, it's much closer than that. Hero has a gutshot and two overs. Our overs could be dominated by the 20/4's three-bet and could have reverse implied odds associated to them. While a won't necessarily give someone a flush, it will set up redraws. Although there is no reason to fear a flush draw, it does decrease our equity. We're subject to redraws from 99/TT. Finally another thing to consider is that a turn J setups a redraw for AK and JJ. We're immediately getting 10.5:1 but we aren't closing the action. I think this is a fold but it's close to being close.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jason hit the nail on the head and this is a fold and is exaclty what I did; great job Jason.

With such a low PFR (4%) from the BB, my overcards are out the window. The cold caller wasn't a total moran, he stats were something like 40/25/0.9 therefore he likely had a hand that falls in or around this flop. Both players I had nearly 5k hands on.

This hand went to a showdown, the button raised the flop and the BB called. Turn was J-offsuit it was checked through and the river w/Q, BB bet w/AK and button called w/AT.

DeathDonkey
12-05-2005, 07:35 PM
Your play might be good but your memory is terrible. I don't even have it in front of me, but BB 3 bet the flop with AKo! He then bet the Jack turn and the river Q and sucked out on button's ATs. Button threw a mini hissy fit.

-DeathDonkey

Joe Tall
12-05-2005, 07:47 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Your play might be good but your memory is terrible. I don't even have it in front of me, but BB 3 bet the flop with AKo! He then bet the Jack turn and the river Q and sucked out on button's ATs. Button threw a mini hissy fit.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

That's very unlike me to not recall action as my memory is the opposite. I must have been too busy responding to your IM telling you why I folded. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Entity
12-06-2005, 01:06 AM
I fold if BB is aggressive (you say TAGlike 20/4 and I see that as weird, given the low PFR/VPIP ratio), but if there's a reasonable chance of him and Button combined allowing one to peel off on the turn, then I'd call. But it's a bit of a parlay, so it really depends on how aggressive/passive both Button and BB are here.

Rob