Thin Value Bet?

[soah]

2/4 at Stars

A couple players leave and now we're four-handed. I raise UTG to $14 with 98o. Button folds, SB calls, BB calls. Flop K9x all diamonds. I have no diamond. Checked to me and I check. Turn is a 9. SB bets $16. He just joined the table recently and I haven't gotten much read on him yet and he probably doesn't know much about me either (I haven't done much the last couple orbits). BB folds and I raise to $66. He calls. River is a brick and he checks.

He started with $400 and I covered.

[Big_Jim]

Yup, that's pretty thin.

I like your play thus far in the hand, but unless you've got a nice laggy image, I don't think there's many worse hands that call.

[AZK]

I don't think that's thin at all. It's gotta be small though so he calls, he probably has somethign like KQ, KJ diamond.

[PeteGI]

wouldnt a hand like kj with a diamond bet out on that flop? Think this is a tough river to bet on. I would imagine any reraise from him would be a fold. given your turn reraise of him, he could have decided to slow it up and let you bet for him on the river, and make a fat check raise. I advocate checking.

[soah]

Most players will always check to the preflop raiser regardless of the strength of their hand.

[PeteGI]

Thats true. Do you think it is worth it to make a small value bet here and get called with a hand like kj given the times where you will be check raised out of the pot, or times you will be called by a better hand... a9 ect.

[Big_Jim]

KQ and KJ are just about the only hands that I could think of that we're ahead of, here that will call that river bet.

I should probably fiugre out hand combos... but I'm not gonna.

If we had a slightly better kicker for our 9, I would like it a lot more.

It seems like we get looked up by a 9 a lot more often than we get looked up by a K, to me.

If hero is LAG enough to get looked up by a PP here (or if villian is loose enough), then I like it a lot more, but vs. an unknown, I think we get too much credit.

[vanHelsing]

Without a read , I guess this is too thin to be worth it.

- If we make a "normal" sized bet of let's say 2/3 pot (where we can comfortably fold to a CR), I doubt we beat the call of the average player 50+% of the time.

- If we bet smallish, I guess we need to know whom we are up against. Inducing and folding to a bluff-CR, is a mathematical earthquake.

I check behind.

[mythrilfox]

This seems like a very easy value bet to me... on this board I just don't see a 9 leading into a pot of 42 for 16 and then checking the river to you. A timid king that has outs to improve makes much more sense, and a good chunk of the time a 9 will donkbet the river as well. KxQd/KxAd/KxJd will look you up far more than often enough here to make a bet worth it. How much is a little player dependent, but I would opt for something in the 60ish range.

Also, I expect to get c/red here almost never.

Not thin at all. I think a bet of around $75 ought to be very profitable.

Dumle

[BobboFitos]

not thin

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think that's thin at all. It's gotta be small though so he calls, he probably has somethign like KQ, KJ diamond.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Atropos]

I think this is too thin. What do you want to bet on the river? You have problems betting a real small amount, because of your rather big turn raise. And you are the UTG preflop-raiser on a K-High board. What hand could he put you on if he wanted to call with KQo or JJ?

On the other hand, you wont lose too much with a small bet either. I dont see a normal player raising this river with anything you beat, so you could easily fold. If he had some wierd draw to the nut flush, you wont get any money out of him, but you also dont have to show your hand. I think it's rather dependent on your style if you want to show 98o UTG raise or not. Most of the times against most opponents it doesnt matter at all though /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[FlyingStart]

Is it possible that he slowplayed the flush here? First checking to the raiser with the flush, then when the board paired he bet kinda of weak because he didn't want to get too deep on a paired board. When he got raised he went for a checkcall line (with a lesser than nutflush)..

I don't think that is too likely tho.. I think he has a king and make 1/2 PSB (A nine would lead the river no?)

He could ofcourse have the lone A of diamonds, but if you bet half the pot and he immediatly folds then you pretty much know what he was holding without having to show your own hand down (this can be both positive and negative tho depending on what image you want to project)

[Ghazban]

Not thin. 4-handed, any K will look you up a ton of the time as will many hands that contain a pair (something like QQ with the Q of diamonds probably calls here, too, though its an unlikely holding). You're also getting checkraised close to never and absolutely never by a worse hand.

[KowCiller]

[ QUOTE ]
You're also getting checkraised close to never and absolutely never by a worse hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the first thing that crossed my mind of when thinking about whether or not to value bet this river, so I wanted to reiterate it.

KoW

[soah]

I started to check. Then I realized I will almost never get raised here and from the way he's played the hand, it looks likely mine is good. And there are some possible worse hands that can call. I wasn't sure how much to bet and after taking some time I ended up betting $90 (about half the size of the pot). He folded.

Still not sure about it. My line looks like a slowplay (flush) and that will make it hard to get paid off by kings on the river. My bet may be small relative to the pot, but it's still a lot to risk on a crying call (and it looks like a value bet). I may have been better off betting bigger and hoping it looks like a bluff (but I'd like to have a read that tells me my opponent will fall for it before trying it) or just betting so small that my opponent feels compelled to call with anything.