(NC) 40 buyin drop over last 120 tournies...any words of wisdom?

[SammyKid11]

Wow -- this is the worst run of my (admittedly short)career. I know I shouldn't let it get to me, I know I should just keep playing my game the same way I've been making good money for several months over the course of 7500+ 22's. But man, this is getting to be a beating. I've lost 9 times when I was a 90%+ favorite, my last 175 coinflips (where I'm within the 42-58 margin) I am running at 31%, over and over again shorties survive 5+ all-ins on the bubble until I'm short, push, and lose immediately for a bubble-out (my %ITM on the bubble in this span is 63%), oftentimes as a big favorite.

I've taken a break and come back. I've pored over my game logs with SNGPT's. I won't claim I've made zero mistakes during this span, but neither have I played what, for me, is poor poker (I'm sure to top-level pros I always play poor poker, but I continue to play the 22's for that reason).

I'm starting to seriously get worried here. I'm typically ambivalent toward posts of this type, so if it gets no response/gets flamed then no big deal.

But if any of you have any words of wisdom at all that I might be able to apply, I'd certainly appreciate it. I'm baffled.

[Newt_Buggs]

7500 tourneys played and you're worried about a 120 tourney cold streak? You must be very fortunate if this is the first time that you've had to face this.

[11t]

You can't lose forever.

You'll feel better when you win 6 out of 8 tournaments.

[Mr_J]

[ QUOTE ]
I've been making good money for several months over the course of 7500+ 22's.

[/ QUOTE ]

No offense, but you should know better.



[ QUOTE ]
I've lost 9 times when I was a 90%+ favorite, my last 175 coinflips (where I'm within the 42-58 margin) I am running at 31%,

I've pored over my game logs with SNGPT's.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is simply a 'bad beat' type of post. You have made an arguement that it's just bad luck and not poor play, so what do you want us to say? Tell you that it's going to be ok and to just keep at it? At 7500+ sngs, you really should know better.

[Landon_McFly]

I feel your pain.

I've lost 10 of the last 14 HU SNG's I've played.

It's nothin nice. We've read enough posts about big downswings, and we know that the best thing to do it try to play your best tiltfree poker as you can.

Keep truckin.

[SammyKid11]

[ QUOTE ]

No offense, but you should know better.


[/ QUOTE ]

You're absolutely right. I'm just freaking out cause it's holiday time and I've got financial needs that are not being met on the tables for the first time in a while. But you're absolutely right. Thanks for setting me straight - and thanks to the other responses as well. We can let this one die, I knew it was a stupid post when I made it, it just felt somehow better to put it down. I should have just written the post and not submitted it.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
40 buyin drop over last 120 tournies...any words of wisdom?

[/ QUOTE ]
All you need is a 400% rakeback deal.

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
At 7500+ sngs, you really should know better.

[/ QUOTE ]

And that's not flaming. It's advice. Get over it.

[ QUOTE ]

You'll feel better when you win 6 out of 8 tournaments.

[/ QUOTE ]

Heh.. i just had that. One ninth, one third, 2 seconds and three firsts. Then I had one tourney still going, where I got ATo at one point, and the loose shortstack player limped UTG, and I folded???? (It was a clear push situation) If I had pushed there it would have been very hard NOT to finish first that one too.

Poker is hard. Somtimes you can win $960 in one session, but other times you'll have to settle for $710, playing $55's... /images/graemlins/frown.gif
Just kidding. My inevitable downswing will destroy me. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

BTW, wouldn't you be qualified to play the $33's after 7500 $22's?

[tigerite]

Oh yes, the inevitable downswing will destroy you. Try 40 buyin drop over 3 or 4 days after being over 100 buyins up over the previous week and a bit, at the $55s. Certainly destroys the nice looking ROI, too.

[skipperbob]

It can get worse /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[zambonidrivr]

glad to see i am not alone

[tigerite]

You certainly aren't.. it's why I decided to take a stab at the $109s after I got back to the 100 buyins up.. rather than be a pussy and stay at the $55s like last time.

[zambonidrivr]

I had the same thought. This morning I was saying to myself, when I get the roll back up to $5K, I am taking a stab. This time around, I was satisfied with the $50's and picking up 300-400 a night. Next time, I need to really take a stab. Who the hell know's when that will be, I' still running bad on the $30's.

[HesseJam]

I think I am saving for a streak like that. I estimate it to hit me as soon as I go semi pro.

I start to worry as soon as I have a 10+ downswing. I never have had a 14+ downswing so far. And even after my 13.5 downswing I hit the immediate rebound plus 4 extra buy-ins within 10 tourneys.

Gonna be interesting as soon as my number is going to be called...

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
I had the same thought. This morning I was saying to myself, when I get the roll back up to $5K, I am taking a stab. This time around, I was satisfied with the $50's and picking up 300-400 a night. Next time, I need to really take a stab. Who the hell know's when that will be, I' still running bad on the $30's.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, playing the $109s with $5k is pretty tight. I didn't move up til I had over $10k..

[zambonidrivr]

5K is 50 buy-in's. With $10k behind, I would have been playing 215's.

[kevstreet]

I'm sympathetic to your post even though we all realize you should know better. I think you're just looking for a little catharsis, next time do a search for "variance" and that way you don't have to worry about being flamed.

Good luck!

[tigerite]

I don't think 50 is enough for $215s.. it's debateable if it is for $109s. The variance is much, much larger. (Because, naturally, ROI is going to be lower)

[ QUOTE ]
I've lost 10 of the last 14 HU SNG's I've played.

[/ QUOTE ]The last 8 SNGs that I have gotten to heads up, I've placed 2nd.

[1C5]

I hear you. I am at the 22s now also and have been at 0% ROI for over a month now (600+ SnGs) and yes, it sucks and makes me question my poker skills.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I've lost 10 of the last 14 HU SNG's I've played.

[/ QUOTE ]The last 8 SNGs that I have gotten to heads up, I've placed 2nd.

[/ QUOTE ]

i feel your pain bro, i feel your pain. i just went through an 0-9 stretch myself. i think raptor beating me hu the other day put me on hu tilt.

c