QJo freeshowdown raise, is this pointless?

[Rubeskies]

MP is loose passive
SB is thinking LAG. Something like 35/26/2.5 over 550 hands. Seems decent postflop.
Button is 17/5/.5
UTG is unknown
BB is a TAG

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10 SB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, MP calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, MP calls.

River: (12.50 BB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, MP calls, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

[Lmn55d]

I don't like raising the turn.

1) If you call the turn sometimes the river will go bet/raise before it gets to you and you can save a bet.

2) If you raise and sb 3bets you will be getting 12.5:1 and could have up to 5 outs (against AA and AK which are 12 combos). You would be drawing dead against KK and QQ which are 4 combos. So if this is his 3betting range, you have 5 outs 3/4 of the time and 0 outs 1/4 of the time. So on average you have 3.75 outs. The call seems pretty close to EV neutral. It's probably a fold if you consider that he might not 3bet AA or AK. But the fact that it's close adds value to some other lines that allow you to see the river.

3) You charge hands like AT or AJ that aren't willing to bet or call a bet on the river. However a lot of times a LAG will bet these (god knows why) or call a bet with them with 0% equity on the river. So this offsets the benefit of charging them on the turn to a large degree.

4) The thinking lag could hold a hand like TT that would fold to a turn raise but possibly either bet or call the river.

5) I doubt the middle guy here is folding a hand that you want him to fold.

[Danenania]

Great analysis. I agree with calling turn.

[Spicymoose]

I like raising the flop. If you are behind, you will hear about it, and it is much cheaper. You also get to check behind on the river a lot if you choose to (I'm not saying that is always right though).

[obsidian]

[ QUOTE ]
I like raising the flop. If you are behind, you will hear about it, and it is much cheaper. You also get to check behind on the river a lot if you choose to (I'm not saying that is always right though).

[/ QUOTE ]
Exactly what I was thinking. Raising the flop here and betting the turn is a much better play.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
I like raising the flop. If you are behind, you will hear about it, and it is much cheaper. You also get to check behind on the river a lot if you choose to (I'm not saying that is always right though).

[/ QUOTE ]

But won't this open you up to a turn c/r against a player whose turn c/raises you don't want to be folding to?