Thin Value Bet?: NL $400

[Big_Jim]

BB is a 2+2er. Seems to play well. 21/7/2.5 after about 1800 hands. Probably not paying too much attention, though, and plays a bit tight, due to multitabling.
MP is about 30/15/2 after about 100 hands. Haven't noticed anything terribly donking from him.

Hero has been playing fairly LAG.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP ($569.8)
CO ($256.53)
Hero ($1033.93)
SB ($512.7)
BB ($710.6)
UTG ($333.83)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif. SB posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $4, CO calls $4, Hero calls $4, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($20) K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $8</font>, MP calls $8, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $60</font>, SB folds, BB calls $52, MP calls $52.

Turn: ($200) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, MP checks, Hero checks.

River: ($200) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero...</font>

Is this a bet? How much? What worse hands are paying me off here?

If they have been paying much attention, they should know that I hate getting checked to twice.

EDIT: Somehow... the starting hand was not right....
Was J8/images/graemlins/club.gif, now Q8/images/graemlins/club.gif

[ansky451]

I'd have bet the turn, but if I checked....

100-150 looks good. I highly highly doubt better 2 pair is checking here, and most kings probably call the river bet. Especially if you would have taken the raise flop, check turn line with a big draw.

[ajmargarine]

I'd like to hear the reasoning for not betting turn there. I can't see not betting that turn given the preceding action.

[jjb108]

Since you're LAGing it up, I bet here. Good chance you get called by a worse hand. It'll look like you missed your flush after a semibluff.

I'd bet how much you bet on a river "bluff" earlier. Me I like a slight overbet of the pot to make it fishy.

If noone calls, you "stole" another one. Always a plus. They'll pay off your big hand later.

[Big_Jim]

Somehow... my starting hand was wrong.... it has been fixed.

[PoBoy321]

I don't like a value bet here. Unless you think BB will pay you off with KT, which I doubt, and MP won't call with a busted draw, so it doesn't look like you're gonna get called anyway, so I might throw out lik $50-100, but that's just because I don't think anything will pay you off otherwise.

[-Skeme-]

Check.

[soah]

All I can say about this hand with much certainty is that BB's flop play is damn weird. Bet 40% pot and then just call that monstrous raise?

I'm not really seeing how you can get value from the river here. You have two opponents to deal with, and their basic hand ranges on the flop were:

A) Set
B) Top pair
C) Draw

Sets don't fold on the river. Top pair could easily have turned into two pair, and even if BB somehow has exactly AK, he has to fear two pair from you at this point. Not sure how much you'll be able to get from either of them with top pair now. And if they were on a draw then they fold.

It's confusing that they both checked the river (it makes it likely your hand is good), but then again I found the flop confusing as well. Usually if I'm declining a free showdown, I'd like to have some sort of idea of what my opponents have, and here I'm pretty confused.

[crosse91]

do you normally bet 2x the pot on strong draws?

[Big_Jim]

Pot size before my raise:

$20 + $8 + $8 + $8 = $44

Pot sized raise = $52

My raise = 1.15X a pot sized raise

[JKratzer]

I doubt you can make much here, I'd bet $60 again and hope to get someone to look you up with a pretty weak hand. If you do happen to get cr'ed (unlikely) I'd lay it down.

JKratzer

[-Skeme-]

[ QUOTE ]
All I can say about this hand with much certainty is that BB's flop play is damn weird. Bet 40% pot and then just call that monstrous raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

Missed his check-raise on the turn, put Villain on flush draw via the free card and is hoping he'll desperately bet big on river with air?

[crosse91]

yea, i misread and had the pot at 32 for whatever reason. My bad. Either way, you still overbet your draws?

[Big_Jim]

[ QUOTE ]
Either way, you still overbet your draws?

[/ QUOTE ]
Not always.

I also do it with big hands/bluffs, though.

[beset7]

Maybe this is weak but given two reasonably tight players called an overbet on the flop I check behind here and cherish the cheap showdown. Best case worse hands fold and you don't have to show what you overbet the flop with (most of the time). Maybe TPTK or something out there but I'd be nervous.

[jjb108]

I don't think he gets called here either. I also don't mind not showing a hand if I'm playing LAG.

I see LAG's get paid off all the time when the have a strange 2 pair. If Jim was playing TAG or it was me here, a check is in order. As played, I think a bet near pot looks like a busted flush. 2+2 likely folds but maybe the other guy calls.

Doesn't a set or any other good hand get busy on the flop or turn with the draw there.

I'd say they're calling a LAG on the flop with a little something but checking means they've likely got squat.

[soah]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
All I can say about this hand with much certainty is that BB's flop play is damn weird. Bet 40% pot and then just call that monstrous raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

Missed his check-raise on the turn, put Villain on flush draw via the free card and is hoping he'll desperately bet big on river with air?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the first thing that occured to me, but can he really count on our Hero to bluff into two players on the end after they both called that huge flop raise?

But the fact that they may put him on a flush draw is one of the main reasons I'd really like to bet this river... but first you have to be sure your hand is good.

[-Skeme-]

Yeah, it's definitely a weird spot. I still think I check, even with the possibility of them putting Hero on a busted flush draw.. what calls their flop raise that we still beat? Another flush draw? Well, obviously that's not calling. I'd rather showdown a winner here than fold out the losers and keep in a higher winner. I want to see what they called with.

[Big_Jim]

Some good discussion so far.

Here's my thought process:

Flop: BB could be leading with a large hand range here. He has been making these small value bets on many streets, and getting called down by weak hands, primarily by CO and SB. MP could have a large range here, also. Anything from a draw to a K to a set.

I make the big raise, expecting to take it down nearly every time. This is the first time I had used an overbet in this session.

BB flat calls, which confuses me a lot. I put him on a ridiculously huge range which goes from TPGK -&gt; Set -&gt; Good Draw (Probably 6/images/graemlins/club.gif7/images/graemlins/club.gif if he's on a draw)

Then MP calls. I put him on a draw.

Turn: After it gets checked here, their ranges are both still pretty much the same, as BB is likely to go for a CR here. Free card look pretty good.

River: Checked AGAIN... At this point, the only hands that I can see myself ahead of from either villian are AK and KT. Just about every other hand that I could think of improved more than I did, or won't pay off a river bet.

However... they DID check the river... neither one of these villians were particularly check/raise happy, and I have never seen them do it as a bluff, so I figured I could safely fold to a raise.

I bet $200...

[Allinlife]

I think you should bet 100$

[Big_Jim]

I definately considered the $100 bet... but I thought that it looked too much like a value bet, and would scare off any one pair hands.

Perhaps I just need to bluff like that more often.

[crosse91]

i like the bet because i feel like we would have heard from a hand that'd beating us by this point on the river. Can you see a set/K-J checking down to us on the river very often? I think K-J might but no set does.

[ninjia3x]

the only K i see that u beat is KT...and i'm not sure villian called you with that after your flop raise.

So, there is no point in value betting busted draws.

[Big_Jim]

I bet $200. BB Folds. MP almost times out, and calls with K7s, and MHIG.

I updated my notes on MP after the hand, of course.

[odawg09090]

I think not betting this is a sin. I'd bet 1/3 to 1/2 of the pot. You have two pairs. Any king should call that after you checked the turn.

Especially with the LAG image. You must bet this.

[Big_Jim]

What Ks are out there, vs. two decently tight players?

[ansky451]

Do you bluff here with missed clubs? I might. That makes an even better reason to value bet here IMO.

I doubt anyone checked river with any hand that beats you here... 90% of the time.

[BobboFitos]

clear value bet, id go 100.

[Hattifnatt]

I probably fold this preflop, but a call is fine.

Clear valuebet on the river. I go for 90-110 and fold if c/r ..aised.

[KowCiller]

[ QUOTE ]
clear value bet, id go 100.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you put these guys on?

I couldn't believe one guy paid off with K7s... in my mind Hero gets called by 1 hand he beats... AK, which is unlikely based on PF action. I'd be happy to take the free showdown in this spot.

KoW

[-Skeme-]

[ QUOTE ]
clear value bet, id go 100.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do explain what makes this clear for me, Young Bobbo.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
clear value bet, id go 100.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do explain what makes this clear for me, Young Bobbo.

[/ QUOTE ]

whats to explain? hero has the best hand; therefore he should bet.

100 is a nice sum, because top pair which is often out there, will not fold.

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

[TheWorstPlayer]

Just getting to this post for the first time. I think you have an easy bet on the river. But I would have bet the turn.

[Big_Jim]

[ QUOTE ]
I would have bet the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
Cleaning up flush outs/good fold equity, I presume?

I do find that I'm checking behind quite often, maybe too often, with these kinds of draws. BBs weak lead/call worried me more than it probably should have.

Stacks are plenty deep to fold to a c/r, and I may get stacked on river if the flush hits. It's also pretty hard to get paid off well on the river if I hit unless there's an underflush.

OTOH... I just hate getting check/raised off my hand here...

[beset7]

[ QUOTE ]

whats to explain? hero has the best hand; therefore he should bet.

100 is a nice sum, because top pair which is often out there, will not fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

Just getting to this post for the first time. I think you have an easy bet on the river. But I would have bet the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Man. I have a lot to learn about value betting the river. I think I'm leaving a lot of money on the table in these spots if you guys think this is a clear value bet.

[TheWorstPlayer]

It would suck even worse to get bluffed off the best hand when AXcc misses on the river. You should bet the turn because MP definitely has either TPWK if he sucks hardcore or a draw if he sucks a bit less. And BB has a draw or I'm a monkey's uncle. So you charge the draw and hope to get MP to drop his weak (but better than your) holding. Best parlay of course is when BB chases his draw (which he looks like he's pretty willing to do) and then MP folds the winner. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Big_Jim]

I think that what those that are advocating the value bet are saying is that there is pretty much no way that either villian has me beat here, and thus, I should bet.

Then, I just pray that they're bigger donkies than I realized(As was the case here), or have AK.

[jjb108]

[ QUOTE ]
Since you're LAGing it up, I bet here. Good chance you get called by a worse hand. It'll look like you missed your flush after a semibluff.

I'd bet how much you bet on a river "bluff" earlier. Me I like a slight overbet of the pot to make it fishy.



[/ QUOTE ]

Woot! - What do I win for thinking like Jim here and getting lucky on my read?

[Big_Jim]

[ QUOTE ]
Woot! - What do I win for thinking like Jim here and getting lucky on my read?

[/ QUOTE ] http://homepages.wmich.edu/~a3cranda/Useless%20Knowledge%20Pages/Road%20Signs/Absolutely%20nothing.jpg

Congratulations.

[jjb108]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Woot! - What do I win for thinking like Jim here and getting lucky on my read?

[/ QUOTE ] http://homepages.wmich.edu/~a3cranda/Useless%20Knowledge%20Pages/Road%20Signs/Absolutely%20nothing.jpg

Congratulations.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sweet...I was hoping for the bunny with a pancake on its head picture. But hey, any humorous picture is good.

[Big_Jim]

[ QUOTE ]
I was hoping for the bunny with a pancake on its head picture

[/ QUOTE ] http://www.cubcarson.com/mediac/400_0/media/bunny~with~pancake~head.jpg

Anything to help the forum.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Ah, that is the dedication of a soon-to-be-mod. Spammer.

[Big_Jim]

I'm just giving the people what they want.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
Just getting to this post for the first time. I think you have an easy bet on the river. But I would have bet the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

eww gross

[TheWorstPlayer]

You're gross. I can't believe you don't like betting this turn. You get folds or calls from draws with no pair all the time.

[soah]

Two people just called an overbet on the flop. You have third pair. wtf

[TheWorstPlayer]

donkeys always draw

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
donkeys always draw

[/ QUOTE ]

my read is someone has top pair. yo ucant beat that. top pair never folds. thus, my ewww stands correct.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
top pair never folds. thus, my ewww stands correct.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is not exactly correct, but very close. Yesterday I played an awesome hand: HU. I'm on BN. Flop comes Jxx two-tone. He min-bets. I say, he can't have a hand he likes because he would have bet more to protect or get value. I raise pot. He calls. He checks blank turn. I think he must have a draw and I will get him to fold it (since it beats my 5 high). I bet pot. He calls. River is a blank. He checks again. Ah, easy play to knock him off his missed draw (which still beats my 5 high). I bet half pot. He calls with J2. He ended up min-betting the flop and then putting in 50bb or so with the hand I was SURE he couldn't possibly like on the flop. Oops.

[chekthastak]

I would push, it confuses the hell out of people. An all in overbet makes people think you have nothing and you are trying to steal the pot, and they are likely to call with a mediocore hand. $100 looks like a value bet and a mediocore K is not calling. Even if I don't push I like your pot sized bet the same, it still looks like a huge bet and it could confuse a K into calling because they would think if you had a big hand you would value bet.

[Big_Jim]

I think a push here is horrible. My hand is just not that strong, and I think against an unknown, I very rarely get called.

This is also because I don't overbet nearly often enough (I think).

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
$100 looks like a value bet and a mediocore K is not calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

one would think that, but thats wrong.

[-Skeme-]

[ QUOTE ]
I would push, it confuses the hell out of people. An all in overbet makes people think you have nothing and you are trying to steal the pot, and they are likely to call with a mediocore hand. $100 looks like a value bet and a mediocore K is not calling. Even if I don't push I like your pot sized bet the same, it still looks like a huge bet and it could confuse a K into calling because they would think if you had a big hand you would value bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

You've just made "The list."