Nut low, 2nd nut flush draw, gutshot vs low chaser

[DrewOnTilt]

http://www.pokerhand.org/index.php?page=view&hand=182515

Just checking my line on this turn with the made low and 2nd nut flush draw.

The player behind me in this hand (jasonsull) is a habitual low chaser. He WILL call with a made low and any kind of high draw even if it means getting quartered, like he did here.

I went ahead and shoved allin here, figuring my draws would be good if they hit. Obviously I didn't expect my Queen high to be good for the high vs jasonsull. Comments?

[Wolffink]

I wouldn't raise all-in on the turn. You've gotten called on the flop and the turn and are raised all-in. You may already be quartered by the all-in guy. You've just got nut low and the draw. Call & see the river. No reason to raise all-in imo. I'm not too crazy about being raised all-in with just the nut low. So why would I want to re-raise? Call and hope to hit the flush on the river and get your money in there.

If you call the turn are you going to fold the river? Ever?

[Wolffink]

Absolutely. With just Q-high, someone already all-in, facing a potsize raise into a dry side pot, yes I would fold the river. Easy.

Show me the math. Be sure to pay attention to stack & pot sizes. If anything, it's close, but I'd be very surprised if you can show that a fold is mathematically correct against a reasonable range of hands.

[DrewOnTilt]

[ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't raise all-in on the turn. You've gotten called on the flop and the turn and are raised all-in. You may already be quartered by the all-in guy. You've just got nut low and the draw. Call & see the river. No reason to raise all-in imo. I'm not too crazy about being raised all-in with just the nut low.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me expand a bit on my initial line of thinking on the turn allin raise.

I had no history of play with the allin raiser (sir_rebrum), HOWEVER - he had been playing loosely, and was shortstacked. I figured him for a one-way hand at best, since shortstack shoves from loose players usually are desperation allin bets.

I made the reraise to pressure the guy behind me (jasonsull). Remember that I am out of position against him, and flat-calling gives him the opportunity to repot on the turn or pot the river, assuming that I check unimproved. I wanted to turn the tables. However, now that I've had time to think about this hand, my move was inconsistent with my read on him (see the OP).

[ QUOTE ]
So why would I want to re-raise? Call and hope to hit the flush on the river and get your money in there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Remember that I also have a gutshot straight draw, which adds a small bit of equity.

Say I just flat-call the turn. The river bricks. Check? Small bet?

[DrewOnTilt]

[ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't raise all-in on the turn. You've gotten called on the flop and the turn and are raised all-in. You may already be quartered by the all-in guy. You've just got nut low and the draw. Call & see the river. No reason to raise all-in imo. I'm not too crazy about being raised all-in with just the nut low. So why would I want to re-raise? Call and hope to hit the flush on the river and get your money in there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ironically, I had a strikingly similar hand again today.

http://www.pokerhand.org/index.php?page=view&hand=183395

The main difference here is that the turn lead put me nearly allin anyway, but I thought back to your advice on this particular hand and just flat called.

And - LOL - my Queen high took the high AGAIN, this time in a 3-way showdown. I love it.

[Wolffink]

It is close.

Thinking about it and some rough ad-hoc pen & paper calculations assuming 40% 40% 20% where 40% equals the chance of the opponent A) All-in opponent has nut low and B) River opponent has nut low and wins high and C) 20% equals the chance that your nut low wins half the pot, it becomes very close. If you believe the nut low will hold up more than 20% of the time, you definitely should call on the river.

Interesting.