How many outs...

[krishanleong]

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.40 SB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.20 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

How many outs do I have here? Please list the breakdown so we can argue in detail. How many pair outs, straight outs, hidden outs.

Villian is 46/22/1.5/52 over 60.

Krishan

[Surfbullet]

Pair outs: 6
Straight outs: 4
Chop outs: 4

Our Qs are no good if he's got a J. Our pairs are no good if he's got a 7, 2pair, or a set, or has us reverse dominated. Hearts or diamonds could either be no good, but not as likely b/c it's heads-up. our chop outs are no good if he holds a J.

soooo discounting

Pair outs: 6, discount to 3 for reverse domination / tainted outs for straights. Factor in flush, say 2.5?
Straight outs: 3.5 (discount .5 for the possibility of hitting J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif//images/graemlins/heart.gif and losing to flush)
Chop outs: 4, discount to 2 b/c it's for half the pot, discount by 1 for the times he has a J, 1 out.

Looks like ~6outs?

Surf

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]

Pair outs: 6, discount to 3 for reverse domination / tainted outs for straights. Factor in flush, say 2.5?
Straight outs: 3.5 (discount .5 for the possibility of hitting J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif//images/graemlins/heart.gif and losing to flush)
Chop outs: 4, discount to 2 b/c it's for half the pot, discount by 1 for the times he has a J, 1 out.

Looks like ~6outs?

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

2.5 + 3.5 + 1 = 6? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Krishan

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
Pair outs: 6
Straight outs: 4
Chop outs: 4

Our Qs are no good if he's got a J. Our pairs are no good if he's got a 7, 2pair, or a set, or has us reverse dominated. Hearts or diamonds could either be no good, but not as likely b/c it's heads-up. our chop outs are no good if he holds a J.

soooo discounting

Pair outs: 6, discount to 3 for reverse domination / tainted outs for straights. Factor in flush, say 2.5?
Straight outs: 3.5 (discount .5 for the possibility of hitting J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif//images/graemlins/heart.gif and losing to flush)
Chop outs: 4, discount to 2 b/c it's for half the pot, discount by 1 for the times he has a J, 1 out.

Looks like ~6outs?

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

I like your analysis. You left out our blank outs when villain checks the river though. That has to add in at least an out or two.

[TStoneMBD]

i dont know how many outs but i dont think enough to call the turn.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
i dont know how many outs but i dont think enough to call the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think actually coming up with the number away from the table is a valuable exercise. It can help you decide what outs you need in the future. Plus in this particular hand the hidden split outs provide enough value in my opinion to make this a profitable call. I know I call looser than most with overcard draws but I think this one is okay. I'm open to being told I'm wrong especially with analysis.

Krishan

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Pair outs: 6, discount to 3 for reverse domination / tainted outs for straights. Factor in flush, say 2.5?
Straight outs: 3.5 (discount .5 for the possibility of hitting J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif//images/graemlins/heart.gif and losing to flush)
Chop outs: 4, discount to 2 b/c it's for half the pot, discount by 1 for the times he has a J, 1 out.

Looks like ~6outs?

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

2.5 + 3.5 + 1 = 6? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

So it looks like I can do a complicated case-by-case analysis of poker situations with many variables, but can't do simple arithmetic.

Go me!

~7 outs. Right. I couldn't even claim it as a typo b/c i've got one of those ergonomic keyboards so the numbers on the left hand only go up to 6 /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Surf

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]

I like your analysis. You left out our blank outs when villain checks the river though. That has to add in at least an out or two.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've all but given up on counting on these as "outs" in any meaningful way because it happens so infrquently, unless he's a TAG.

Surf

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I like your analysis. You left out our blank outs when villain checks the river though. That has to add in at least an out or two.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've all but given up on counting on these as "outs" in any meaningful way because it happens so infrquently, unless he's a TAG.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't think he could have a flush draw or some other random LAGGY bluff hand that he might give up on the river sometimes?

[krishanleong]

Surf, I'm going to pick apart your out assignments. I think most people will agree with your discounting. I don't, /images/graemlins/smile.gif but we are all here to learn right?

[ QUOTE ]

Our Qs are no good if he's got a J. Our pairs are no good if he's got a 7, 2pair, or a set, or has us reverse dominated. Hearts or diamonds could either be no good, but not as likely b/c it's heads-up. our chop outs are no good if he holds a J.

soooo discounting

Pair outs: 6, discount to 3 for reverse domination / tainted outs for straights. Factor in flush, say 2.5?

[/ QUOTE ]

The standard discount overcard outs by 50% was I think main mainstream by Ed Miller. If he meant for you to discount 50% in multiway pots where there was action, I think there has to exist a scenerio where as a default we assign more than .5 for each overcard out. In this hand I have two things going for me that make reverse domination a little less of an issue. I don't have an ace in my hand. It's a blind steal and he's calling with a very wide range. I think it's fair to give more than .5 per overcard in a scenerio with really wide hand ranges. I usually give myself 4 outs minimum here. Take out 1/8th outs for flushes and I get 3.5 outs.

[ QUOTE ]

Straight outs: 3.5 (discount .5 for the possibility of hitting J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif//images/graemlins/heart.gif and losing to flush)

[/ QUOTE ]

So 1/8th of the time he has a flush draw. I can live with that.

[ QUOTE ]

Chop outs: 4, discount to 2 b/c it's for half the pot, discount by 1 for the times he has a J, 1 out.

[/ QUOTE ]

The discount to 2 is unarguable. But the discount to 1 assumes he has a J half the time? You can toss in a little bit a flush discount (1/8th again?) but I doubt he has a J even 10% of the time. Assuming 1/8th of the time a flush and 1/10th of the time a J I still should get at least 1.5 outs for the split.

Everyone, please argue with me. With my calcs I come up with 3.5 + 3.5 + 1.5 = 8.5 outs. Thanks,

Krishan

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I like your analysis. You left out our blank outs when villain checks the river though. That has to add in at least an out or two.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've all but given up on counting on these as "outs" in any meaningful way because it happens so infrquently, unless he's a TAG.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't think he could have a flush draw or some other random LAGGY bluff hand that he might give up on the river sometimes?

[/ QUOTE ]

I definitely think that he could have these hands, but I think he fires with them UI on the river rather than c/fing.

Surf

[Spicymoose]

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[ QUOTE ]
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[ QUOTE ]

I like your analysis. You left out our blank outs when villain checks the river though. That has to add in at least an out or two.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've all but given up on counting on these as "outs" in any meaningful way because it happens so infrquently, unless he's a TAG.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't think he could have a flush draw or some other random LAGGY bluff hand that he might give up on the river sometimes?

[/ QUOTE ]

I definitely think that he could have these hands, but I think he fires with them UI on the river rather than c/fing.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

You are probably right, but I am not sure what this means for outs. If he gives up on the river 10% of the time, and holds the hand 20% of the time, that is basically 1 out. It is a bit more complicated than this, but I think we might get at least half an out, if not more.

[Drontier]

I gave you 9 outs when I first looked at the hand. I assume your Q is going to be good less than your K, but they add up to 4 outs. 3.5 outs for the gut. 1.5 outs to the split. Going from a range of a typo of 6 outs to 9 outs is kinda huge though. Its a good thing people to better analysis than me.

[TStoneMBD]

id say your pair outs are only good 1/3 times or so so 6/3 = 2 outs. you then have 4 pretty clean straight outs and i guess 1.5 outs to a split.

7.5?

the times you connect your gutshot you can figure your implied odds are 2.2 BBs.
the times you catch your Q/K your implied odds are -.666BB (since theyre only good 1/3 times).
the times you catch your chop outs your implied odds are -.13BB (since you only expect to chop 3/4 times you actually catch.)

4(2.2)+6(-.666)+1.5(-.13)=4.605/11.5= +.4BB

5.2+.4 = 5.6

so youre getting 5.6:1 on the turn to chase a 7 outter after implied odds before rake.