(LC) $109 bubble - why do people call in this situation? [Archive]

View Full Version : (LC) $109 bubble - why do people call in this situation?

tigerite

12-04-2005, 04:54 PM

It's not a bad beat.. but this guy is sane, seems to know what he's doing, is on many tables (it's StiffStuff) and then he makes a ridiculously bad call like this?

PartyPoker - NL Texas Hold'em $100 Buy-in + $9 Entry Fee Tournament | Level: 9 - 4 players (Converter: PGC (http://client.pokergrader.com))

Chip Counts:
Button: 810 Chips <--- NOTE CHIP STACK AND BLINDS
Hero: 3650 Chips
BB: 2970 Chips
UTG: 2570 Chips

Hero is SB with 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif
Blinds are 250/500

PreFlop
UTG folds, Button folds
Hero is All-In, BB is All-In

(2 players) FLOP: 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif ( Pot Size: 6620 Chips )

(2 players) TURN: 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif ( Pot Size: 6620 Chips )

(2 players) RIVER: J/images/graemlins/spade.gif ( Pot Size: 6620 Chips )

Final Pot:6620 Chips

Results in white below:
SB shows:8sQc,a pair of threes
BB shows:AhJd,two pairs, jacks and threes

These people boggle my brain - I thought I left this kind of nonsense behind in the $33s.

citanul

12-04-2005, 04:56 PM

he called because he had a very good hand. you should understand why people do stupid things by now

tigerite

12-04-2005, 04:56 PM

But he's a multitabler, probably a 2p2'er, and he should know about ICM. So why the hell call here? It makes no sense, at all.

citanul

12-04-2005, 05:08 PM

he was teaching you a lesson.

tigerite

12-04-2005, 05:13 PM

Laff. Possible I suppose. Oh well good luck to him.

1C5

12-04-2005, 05:14 PM

hahaha wow, are you sure this wasn't a $10 table?

tigerite

12-04-2005, 05:15 PM

Nah, just some muppet. Hey ho.

Matt R.

12-04-2005, 05:15 PM

How bad is this call per ICM? (don't have sngpt, figured someone could give me a # in 1/100th the time I could do it by hand).

Anyway... the more I play these, the more I'm starting to like borderline -$EV plays when my hand is clearly a favorite vs. the pushers range. I feel that even after I make the money (and in this case it will still be the bubble if he calls and wins), I can steal blinds and win pots a lot more easily when I'm the big stack. Sometimes I'm willing to make the risk of busting out at a 40% or whatever rate to get this advantage, even though the immediate risk is obvious.

I don't think I'd make this call, but it's actually really close for me. Especially since if I win, I'd have 2 shorties in the game with me with 4 people left, and there's a good chance I'd be able to make a lot in the next several hands with 750 in blinds each hand.

I wonder if it would be easy to take these considerations into effect, and say "ok, I can make this call even though ICM says the EV is -x% of the prize pool". How low could you make x with blinds this huge, assuming the other players will fold to your future pushes at an 'optimum' frequency?

tigerite

12-04-2005, 05:16 PM

This isn't even borderline, it's hugely -$EV. If I have any two and he calls this it's -1.2%.

And he made nothing, I pushed the next hand with AJs and bust to his K7o.

Matt R.

12-04-2005, 05:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This isn't even borderline, it's hugely -$EV. If I have any two and he calls this it's -1.2%.

And he made nothing, I pushed the next hand with AJs and bust to his K7o.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're not always going to get a pushable hand from the button though (given that the 800 chip guy is in the BB next), and if it's folded to the guy that called you that's an instant 750 chips in profit.

I didn't realize AJo was 'hugely' -$EV though; I tend to eyeball these things. I wouldn't call with AJo either, but I think given the above you could make a case for AQ or maybe even AJs? These could be hugely -$EV too without me realizing it, but I think AJs is where I would start pondering a call.

Freudian

12-04-2005, 05:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
But he's a multitabler, probably a 2p2'er, and he should know about ICM. So why the hell call here? It makes no sense, at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

So the next time you play him and a similar situation is there, will you still push any two?

skipperbob

12-04-2005, 05:28 PM

You Forgot "Irieguy's Hierarchy of Needs" for Poker Players
1.Need for $$$$
2.Need for Alcohol
3.Need for Lapdances
4.Need to Call

durron597

12-04-2005, 05:30 PM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Hero (t4720)
UTG (t180)
Button (t1690)
SB (t6910)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, Button raises to t400, 1 fold, Hero raises to t4720, Button calls t1290 (All-In).

Flop: (t6510) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t6510) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t6510) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t6510

Results in white below: 
Hero has 5c Js (one pair, twos).
Button has Th Jh (one pair, twos).
Outcome: Button wins t3480. Hero wins t3030.

12-04-2005, 05:34 PM

I'm not saying it's supports the call, but I can see the confusion. Suppose you know the BB calls 20% of the time, SNG PT says (with 50% blind disounting) that the SB should push with 25% (minimum edge 0.5%). Q8 isn't in that range. If he thinks you're pushing even worse hands, that may re-inforce his calling instinct.

I can't find a push%/call% equilibrium.

tigerite

12-04-2005, 05:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But he's a multitabler, probably a 2p2'er, and he should know about ICM. So why the hell call here? It makes no sense, at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

So the next time you play him and a similar situation is there, will you still push any two?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, because it's not -$EV for me until he calls a ridiculously loose range.

12-04-2005, 05:41 PM

Well, if he folds, he loses equity, too. He's in a no win situation.

Newt_Buggs

12-04-2005, 05:44 PM

oh please, I've seen calls from hands like K9 in this type of situation. Seeing a looser call like AJ shouldn't be any surprise. Even if he's calling with AJo ICM says that its ridiculously profitable to push 32o here anyway, so its not like he's hurting you that much.

tewall

12-04-2005, 05:52 PM

Assuming you'll push with any 2, AJo looks to be about a break even call. I get his CEV goes down just the slightest amount by calling. This is using the ICM model.

Does it break down in a situation where the blinds are so high compared to the small stack?

tewall

12-04-2005, 05:53 PM

gisb0rne

12-04-2005, 05:55 PM

I see these calls all the time (but at a lower limit). It often makes me wonder if I'm playing correctly raising any 2 in these situations when there's enough morons out there willing to call with a "good" hand even though there's a super-short stack about to bust.

Freudian

12-04-2005, 06:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But he's a multitabler, probably a 2p2'er, and he should know about ICM. So why the hell call here? It makes no sense, at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

So the next time you play him and a similar situation is there, will you still push any two?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, because it's not -$EV for me until he calls a ridiculously loose range.

[/ QUOTE ]

And what about a situation where he is neutral EV by calling with say A5o? You still pull the trigger knowing he is a loose caller? I am not saying I would have called here, but I think if you are a regular there is some value to have it known you don't have a very tight calling range because people will exploit the hell out of it.

tigerite

12-04-2005, 06:18 PM

He wouldn't call A5o here - he wasn't THAT bad..

tigerite

12-04-2005, 06:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming you'll push with any 2, AJo looks to be about a break even call. I get his CEV goes down just the slightest amount by calling. This is using the ICM model.

Does it break down in a situation where the blinds are so high compared to the small stack?

[/ QUOTE ]

What has CEV got to do with it? Try $EV.

12-04-2005, 06:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Hero (t4720)
UTG (t180)
Button (t1690)
SB (t6910)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, Button raises to t400, 1 fold, Hero raises to t4720, Button calls t1290 (All-In).

Flop: (t6510) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t6510) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t6510) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t6510

Results in white below: 
Hero has 5c Js (one pair, twos).
Button has Th Jh (one pair, twos).
Outcome: Button wins t3480. Hero wins t3030. 

[/ QUOTE ]

Called off his entire stack with J/10 suited and shortstack on life support. Unbelievable.