deep stacks, no free cards, do you really like your set?

[jkkkk]

Villain is 30/10 and very aggressive.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

SB ($375.45)
BB ($241.20)
UTG ($168.15)
UTG+1 ($100.68)
UTG+2 ($171.05)
MP1 ($23.10)
MP2 ($113.35)
MP3 ($803.95)
CO ($348.17)
Hero ($468.65)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif. SB posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP1 calls $2, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls $2, Hero calls $2, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($9) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $8.55</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $24</font>, BB folds, MP1 folds, CO pushes making it $322 to go, Hero...

[scdavis0]

I'm not tryin to fold this hand -- if I had 99 this action would give me pause

I think that you are either up against two pair or a made straight. He seems to want to discourage that third diamond so it may be saafe to say he hit his cards and is trying to protect.

[emil3000]

What is up with preflop limp?

[4_2_it]

You didn't play TT just to fold when you hit. Call and boat up on the turn.

[zaphod]

[ QUOTE ]
What is up with preflop limp?

[/ QUOTE ]

[gol4pro]

You see a semi-bluff here sometimes. You see QT, QQ, JK as well.

I think I call.

I think your hand is a little too strong to fold. The only 3 hands your are really worried about are QQ (unlikely), J8, and KJ. My guess is you are most likely ahead facing some sort of powerful draw like J /images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. He may also have a set of 9s or two pair. I think this is a call.

[jkkkk]

[ QUOTE ]
What is up with preflop limp?

[/ QUOTE ]

I usually raise TT here, but I felt like limping.

[Andrew Fletcher]

I would flod here. If he makes a habit of sticking his stack into the center with just a draw, we'll get him eventually.

[Andrew Fletcher]

I can never tell if posts like this are a joke. If that was the plan, he'd have like negative three outs.

[Andrew Fletcher]

It would be cool if people started giving percentages.

Like, i'll Limp 20% and raise 80%

[Ghazban]

I call 100% of the time. Why aren't you playing 6-max?

[jkkkk]

[ QUOTE ]
I call 100% of the time. Why aren't you playing 6-max?

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been playing 6-max all day.

[Ghazban]

Just curious; this hand obviously wasn't from a 6-max table.

[jkkkk]

mmm yea theres something up with the converter, it always labels full ring games as 6max, tis weird.

[yvesaint]

hey, call every day this is not a made straight, more often its something like QdJd, top 2, AdQd, etc.

The massive overbet really scares me. How often is villain going to risk his entire stack without the nuts here? He's deepstacked, so are you. I just don't see villain making this move often enough without KJ to make this a call.

[jkkkk]

[ QUOTE ]
The massive overbet really scares me. How often is villain going to risk his entire stack without the nuts here? He's deepstacked, so are you. I just don't see villain making this move often enough without KJ to make this a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it is interesting, does he really risk his stack here with less?

When I'm infront I'm either 60-40 (oesfd vs set) or I'm miles ahead of 99. When I'm behind... I'm 65-35 to the made straight and miles behind QQ.

We can count QQ out because theres no way he limps QQ pf, so we can assume hes more likely to have 99 than QQ.

I think what it really comes down to is he more likely to play QJ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif this way or the made straight? It's a mighty big risk if hes doing this with a massive draw because he knows (or should at least) the only thing that will call him here is a straight or a set.

To be honest I think I see the made straight or 99 here most times, I'm miles ahead of 99 and can draw out against the straight, which leads me to believe folding is a bad idea.

[emil3000]

I agree with your analysis. Also, I am making a huge boost to my post count today with worthless posts.

[rachelwxm]

If you read him as very aggressive, so his range could include pair+draw and I would call.

[Wayfare]

Lots of times you have him crushed. A few times you will have to suck out, but fortunately it will be 33% of the time.

Instant-call against opponent described.

I dunno... I'm pretty terrified of making a call here with the set.

I think we can rule out QQ pretty safely... but villain risked his ENTIRE stack of $322. That's a lot of money for anyone to risk.

Personally, I don't know many people that will push that hard with a set/2 pair when there's a possible made straight AND flush draw on teh board.

Sure, you can redraw to a boat, but you'll only catch it about 1/3 of the time. I'm waiting for a better opportunity to risk most of my money.

ghaz, I really respect your posts. could you go into further detail why you like a call here instead of a fold?

I think this is almost never a semi-bluff with the amount of money involved and the possibility of the made straight.

[starvs]

[ QUOTE ]
mmm yea theres something up with the converter, it always labels full ring games as 6max, tis weird.

[/ QUOTE ]

not only is it labeled full ring, but it also has ten people and stacks listed....

But as for the hand I think you have to call against a "very aggresive player", which means he could be doing this with a nice draw, which you are ahead of. A made straight is of course a concern, but sucking out take cares of that. And the times your up against 99 makes up for the straights. QQ can most likley be ruled out because he would have raised PF. He also could have made two misclicks in a row, and accidently pushed. All this compounded makes a call I think.

[soah]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is almost never a semi-bluff with the amount of money involved and the possibility of the made straight.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just because he doesn't think he's bluffing doesn't always mean that he holds the best hand. Usually people that do this don't want to have to deal with scare cards on the turn in a big pot. They'd rather gamble that they are ahead on the flop than play poker on the future betting rounds. People with the nuts rarely want to make you fold. They will gamble that their hand will hold up while they desperately try to extract.

[Hattifnatt]

Tough one.. Definitely raise preflop. On the flop I guess I would had called. But the ratio between his all-in bet and the pot size is very big so folding here cant be very wrong. Certainly looks like hes can have flopped the straight, but 2 pair or 2 nines is a possibility too.

[youngin20]

fold if you like money. i dont think a 3-bet is a bluff here often, esp. at low limits.

[-Skeme-]

Limping PF here is fine.

[Marlow]

[ QUOTE ]
I think we can rule out QQ pretty safely... but villain risked his ENTIRE stack of $322. That's a lot of money for anyone to risk.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not always true. A higher limit player who wants to slum it can come to this game and just mess with people. $322 is nothing to a lot of players out there. I think we can't make that kind of analysis unless we watch the guy play. We need to know what kind of regard he has for his money.

[ QUOTE ]
Sure, you can redraw to a boat, but you'll only catch it about 1/3 of the time. I'm waiting for a better opportunity to risk most of my money.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that there's at least a 20% chance here that hero's ahead (probably a lot more than this...). And this, combined with the 33% probability that he'll suckout on a made hand justifies the call.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
I think we can rule out QQ pretty safely... but villain risked his ENTIRE stack of $322. That's a lot of money for anyone to risk.

[/ QUOTE ]
This line of thinking is not good for a no-limit player. He's risking some chips to win some other chips. Maybe its more chips than you would risk in his spot but so what? They're just chips. Get that money concept out of your head or you'll hit a wall in your development as a player.

I'm instantly calling this because its almost always TPTK or a pair+draw type hand trying to take it down right there and make everybody else pay to suck out. People love to overprotect one pair hands on boards like this. The worst possible scenario for OP is the higher set and he's ruled that out completely (or at least assigned it an extremely low probability) so we stick it in. If villain's doing this with the made straight, lucky for him there was one hand out there that could pay it off (and its not like he's got a set crushed anyway). He cannot possibly make money doing this regularly so make a note and move on.

[PokerFink]

Why are there so many people on this board who advocate folding sets on the flop? Especially middle set when there is essentially 0% chance that we are set under set?

I don't think I've ever seen Ghaz, Xorbie, TWP (et. all) suggest folding a set on the flop.

Stick it in.

[jkkkk]

Results in white: /images/graemlins/blush.gif

<font color="white">He had KJo for the flopped straight. River brought a beautiful Q. </font>

[-Skeme-]

Wow, he totally pwned you.

[scrapperdog]

Results were surprising, I was expecting a lower strait who was protecting his hand, not the temporary nuts. J 8 would have been my guess.

[Leptyne]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think this is almost never a semi-bluff with the amount of money involved and the possibility of the made straight.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just because he doesn't think he's bluffing doesn't always mean that he holds the best hand. Usually people that do this don't want to have to deal with scare cards on the turn in a big pot. They'd rather gamble that they are ahead on the flop than play poker on the future betting rounds. People with the nuts rarely want to make you fold. They will gamble that their hand will hold up while they desperately try to extract.

[/ QUOTE ]

This echos my thoughts. I rarely see holdings here that want a call. They may have a good hand, but its not the nuts and they don't want draws.

Fold. Easy decision. K,J for sure.

[PokerFink]

Way to chime in after results have been posted =)

[kurto]

I'd guess its a straight (without a deeper read then simply he's very aggressve.) People love JK.

Obviously they're are a lot of bad players who do things that confound me, but I can't see most players 3 betting without the nuts on a highly coordinated board.

[pzhon]

Did you notice that the CO bet $8.55 instead of $8? That makes the push much more scary. It's sort of like when someone almost always uses the bet pot button on Ultimate Bet, then takes the trouble to raise a funny amount. They often have AA.

That said, if you know he has KJ, you only lose about $88 on average by calling. You gain a lot more than that when you find yourself up against 99 or a monster draw. I think you will see enough other hands to call in this type of situation, particularly against an aggressive player.

[benwood]

"Villin is 30/10 and very aggressive." This gives you the answer to the problem.Call him.

[ QUOTE ]
You didn't play TT just to fold when you hit. Call and boat up on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

While I'm not necessarily advocating folding, I don't get this logic at all. Because you hit your ten you can't fold regardless of the flop and action? It really doesn't seem that rare to fold a set on the flop to me, especially when the board is slightly more dangerous than this.

[soah]

I have never folded a set on the flop.

[Fallen Hero]

[ QUOTE ]
It really doesn't seem that rare to fold a set on the flop to me

[/ QUOTE ]

that's scary.

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
I can never tell if posts like this are a joke. If that was the plan, he'd have like negative three outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

What is funny about my post? Folding a set every time you get resistance is not +EV. Almost every time you flop a set, there is a straight or flush draw. Unless I got real solid read on villain, I am not laying down a set here ever. I will lay down a set if a 4-flush or 4 straight hits and I am OOP, seeing KJ or J8 here is looking for monsters under the bed. 99, T9, AQ, KQ, QJ, QT, Q9 or JT are within villain's range here.

[FlyingStart]

I don't know what site you play at but this range seems very large. I don't think KJ is a monster under the bed here, it is what I would expect to see. I call tho, but I'm rooting real hard for the board to pair

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know what site you play at but this range seems very large. I don't think KJ is a monster under the bed here, it is what I would expect to see. I call tho, but I'm rooting real hard for the board to pair

[/ QUOTE ]

At Party 1/2, people limp with all kinds of high cards that are suited. They also overplay them when they think their hand is best. It is not that unusual to come across a villain that will go to the felt with 2nd pair no kicker. Since you said push, you are not 100% certain that it is KJ here either.

[FlyingStart]

Yes I call but I don't feel very excited about.. Apart from KJ I think a straight + flushdraw is much more likely than pair + OESD/two pair, and a set is not a big favorite against that.

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes I call but I don't feel very excited about..

[/ QUOTE ]

Put me in that boat as well /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ QUOTE ]
I would flod here. If he makes a habit of sticking his stack into the center with just a draw, we'll get him eventually.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, eventually hero will flop a set and get all in with it.

[FlyingStart]

/images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Little follow up.. How do you guys feel about calling this same allin with J8? I imagine fewer would call here for some reason, but the hand has a bigger equity agaist a range where it is correct to call with TT.

edit: lol, no actually it doesn't. Anyway, how would you feel about calling with J8?

If Villian is that aggressive, doesn't he raise PF with two of the hands that have you beat (QQ, KJ)? Would he play a garbage hand like J8? I'm thinking he's on a big draw. Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif maybe? Either way I'm calling hoping he has a set of 9s or TPWK. Also, you have a good chance at filling up even if he does have the st8.

Edit: Didn't realize how old this post was.

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
I have never folded a set on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh come on.

There's a raise PF from UTG. 2 players call and you limp on the button with pocket 10s.

The flop is 10 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

The UTG opens with about a pot-sized bet. 1 player folds and the next player raises him ... its to you. There's a possible flush and/or a straight on the board as well as a raise and a re-raise in front of you....

If you play and UTG has AK he will push. If everyone stays in, the stacks are going in next hand no matter what.

You wouldn't lay down here?

[ QUOTE ]
Yes I call but I don't feel very excited about..

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, I call and I'm so excited I start dancing in my chair. I don't miss redraws either, though. I think folding here would indicate a hefty leak in one's game, and comments like
[ QUOTE ]
It really doesn't seem that rare to fold a set on the flop to me

[/ QUOTE ]

and

[ QUOTE ]
we'll get him eventually.

[/ QUOTE ]

really confirm this.

[trevor]

[ QUOTE ]
You didn't play TT just to fold when you hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bad generalization, ignoring context of situation.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think I've ever seen Ghaz, Xorbie, TWP (et. all) suggest folding a set on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

No offense to anyone but that doesn't mean folding a set is wrong. For some reason that just sits really bad w/ me.

[ QUOTE ]
I think what it really comes down to is he more likely to play QJ this way or the made straight? It's a mighty big risk if hes doing this with a massive draw because he knows (or should at least) the only thing that will call him here is a straight or a set.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this. According to hero villain is very aggressive so OESFD is a possibility, but I would say 99/straight are more likely.

Obviously your equity against 99/J8/KJ/Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif is negative. Really tough hand, don't know WTF I would have done but I'm glad you dragged the pot! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Edit: glad I didn't have to play the hand

[-Skeme-]

[ QUOTE ]
While I'm not necessarily advocating folding, I don't get this logic at all. Because you hit your ten you can't fold regardless of the flop and action? It really doesn't seem that rare to fold a set on the flop to me, especially when the board is slightly more dangerous than this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've spoken out against this terrible logic on more than one occasion. I hate it.

[PokerFink]

Trevor,

Part of learning to play NL is being able to gamble a bit and put your money in with things other than lock hands. Sometimes, you have to say "if he has me beat, he will get my chips." Sometimes, you will get your money in with the worst of it. Sometimes, you will lose.

But you will never be able to consistantly stack opponents if you aren't willing to get your money into the pot in this type of situation. And stacking opponents is the key to becoming a successful NL player.

-Fink

[soah]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have never folded a set on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh come on.

There's a raise PF from UTG. 2 players call and you limp on the button with pocket 10s.

The flop is 10 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

The UTG opens with about a pot-sized bet. 1 player folds and the next player raises him ... its to you. There's a possible flush and/or a straight on the board as well as a raise and a re-raise in front of you....

If you play and UTG has AK he will push. If everyone stays in, the stacks are going in next hand no matter what.

You wouldn't lay down here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I've never had this happen to me.

[kurto]

I'm surprised. But let's say they aren't suited.

Certainly you've flopped a set on a board of 10JQ?

Or simply a monotone flop with a lot of action before you get to bet... when you know for certain the flush is out there?

Don't get me wrong... I'm rarely folding sets (even a few times I knew in heart I should have but didn't). But there have been a few times I've done it and only cursed myself for having the crappy luck of hitting my set on a horrendous flop.

And I wouldn't bet my life on it... but I don't recall ever laying down and finding out that I made a bad decision.

[trevor]

[ QUOTE ]
Trevor,

Part of learning to play NL is being able to gamble a bit and put your money in with things other than lock hands. Sometimes, you have to say "if he has me beat, he will get my chips." Sometimes, you will get your money in with the worst of it. Sometimes, you will lose.

But you will never be able to consistantly stack opponents if you aren't willing to get your money into the pot in this type of situation. And stacking opponents is the key to becoming a successful NL player.

-Fink

[/ QUOTE ]

Okey dokey

[soah]

There have been times that I've known my set was no good on the flop. But I've never had an instance where the bet to me was so large that I couldn't try to fill up.