15/30 awkward turn position multiway w/ 99

[elindauer]

Loose bad player who plays 50% of his hands limps. I raise 99. Both blinds (decent players) and the limper call.

Flop: QJ3 w/ 2 diamonds.

It's checked to me and I take the free card.

Turn: 8d putting a possible flush out there.

SB bets. BB calls. Limper calls. I have the 9d... what's my action?

thanks.
eric

[DeathDonkey]

Don't fold!

-DeathDonkey

[elindauer]

Since no one seems to have much to say on this hand, I'll tell you why I found it interesting.

On the turn, I'm getting 7:1. I have lots of cards that improve my hand... diamonds, tens, and 9s all give me something decent. That's 14 potential outs. Easy call right?

On the other hand, the 9 diamonds will give me the 3rd or 4th nut flush. Can I even call a river bet with this? Can I overcall?

The 9s give me a set but put a 4-straight on the board, not to mention the possible flush that is already present on the turn.

The offsuit tens will give me a straight, but there are only 3 of those, and I still may chop the pot with another 9, lose to AK, or lose to the bettor's made flush on the turn.

14 highly tainted outs, 7:1... in the hand, my brain almost exploded. I could be anywhere from drawing dead to raising my draw for value. What should I do? Is it close? How do you go about appropriately discounting each of the tainted draws I have?

thanks,
eric

[TStoneMBD]

first im not really a fan of the flop check but i find it interesting.

i think you have to call the turn. even if you discounted your 14 outs as only half value youd still have 7 outs which is more than enough to call getting 7:1 odds. your pot equity when you catch your outs is going to be way over 50% so this is a fairly easy call imo.

[elindauer]

Not too much discussion on this one. I guess I'll be left to wonder whether that means it is obvious, or difficult, or what. I still don't know how to discount the various draws or assess the implied / reverse implied odds of the "good" cards in the deck. I'm guessing the way to go is to guesstimate the value of a club, a ten, and a 9, and then do the math.

In the hand, I decided I didn't like any piece of my draw, made a quick guess that I'd often be forced to fold the river even after catching, especially in the bulk of my draw which is to the 4th nut club. I folded.

As luck would have it, the SB bet the river and everyone called, so I got to find out just where I was on the turn and speculate about how this hand would have played out. It turns out that the bettor has turned set, and the callers have various pairs, including as strong as KQ, but with no clubs. My entire 14 out draw was clean. Oops.


The river blanked off though, so I'd have lost this version of the hand anyways.

-Eric

If there were any players to act after you I'd consider a fold as a strong option given the fairly large field. Since you close the betting on this round I think a call is okay. A raise is no good, given the possibility of a reraise, which would make you puke. I think the valuation of your hand of being worth 7 outs may still be a bit optimistic, given the size of the field. A fold would not be all that bad here becauese if you improve you still must call a bet on the river in most situations with a weak made hand. If you want to put yourself in that spot, call; if not, fold.

[stigmata]

I think this is really close getting 7:1, not entirely convinced you have the outs, but it's really debatable. I can't say I thought about it for that long though.

Another thing worth noting are whether both the Q and J are diamonds. E.g. if the J is not a diamond, it makes it more likely that there is a better flush draw out there as someone could hold the Jd.

[ QUOTE ]

Another thing worth noting are whether both the Q and J are diamonds. E.g. if the J is not a diamond, it makes it more likely that there is a better flush draw out there as someone could hold the Jd.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very true. I (incorrectly) assumed through careless reading that the QJ were the diamonds. Not only would you have an extra out if they were both the diamonds, the quality of these outs would be improved somewhat; you would not have to worry quite as much about hitting a second-best flush. An interesting point to consider as it might give you the excuse to call that you are looking for.

If that 3 was one of the diamonds then I'd fold. I'd still most likely fold if both the JQ were the diamonds even though this strengthens the argument for calling.

i'd call here.. theres plenty of money in the pot to take a card off and hope to spike the best diamond.. b/c im pretty sure you're behind a pair of J's at this point.. the flop check allows them to bet the J here.

i'd play a 4-flush carefully here though.