Hillary for President at 6:1

[college kid]

I am not a sports bettor and don't know much about estimating true value vs. what the casinos think the public thinks. This is cross-posted on the OG ofrum.

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I found Hillary at +600 for being president next term, and after going through online and seeing a bunch of stuff and what people think about her chances of running and so on and so forth, I really think this might be a good bet. But I don't know exactly what goes into running and winning and how likely it is that something will make her not run, or not win (though if she runs, I can't imagine she won't win). Anybody who is good with props have any advice on Hillary at +600? I think it's +EV, but I don't have much experience in getting a true value for this type of thing.

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[MyTurn2Raise]

My parlay is my lonely planet guide to Costa Rica for my pending move /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[TheRover]

I can't think of a way you could possibly figure out EV for something like this. Your best bet would be to look at as many other books as possible and see what the typical line is. If the others mostly have +300 or something you might have something there.

P.S. I know jack [censored] about these type of prop bets so all the above could be [censored].

My personal political opinion is that the Democrats ought to find someone else, but that's not here or there...

[craig r]

My guess would be if she even does become the democratic nominee, she will lose. Unless the republican nominee is a woman. Which I guess the only possible choice would be Rice. And I hightly doubt this would happen. You would really have to do your research and first find out who votes where. For example, if it was the "Christian" vote that really helped Bush (just an example), then this same vote will not vote for Clinton; especially because she is a woman.

[Degen]

my prediction:

hillary wins in a landslide

every woman in america is going to vote for her, on principal...ok maybe not every woman but you get the point...

6:1 is generous considering Hillary not winning the nomination on Tradesports is 3:4 and the Dems not winning the Presidency is 1:1. You can hedge this bet later though don't forget about computing 3 years of interest lost.

[DougOzzzz]

okay. So what? Maybe the "true" odds are +500. If that is true, then you get a 7% ROI. That is real good if it is for an event decided a week from now. In this case though your money will be locked up for 3 years. There are better and safer ways to make money investing over 3 years.

Edit: I miscalculated the ROI, but the point remains the same.

For the record, I don't think 6:1 is generous enough as a straight up bet. I only like it as a hedge but then agree with DougOz that there are better ways to invest your money between now and Nov. '08.

[Easy E]

wrong forum

[2+2 wannabe]

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wrong forum

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it was recommended to place it here

yeah, i wouldn't play it... 3 year wait.. and who knows? there must be a decent chance she doesn't even run.

regarding women voting for hillary. hard to say. although democrats already get a strong woman's vote. and hillary is disliked by alot of people.

everyone assumed that the strong turnout of the poor would kill bush. turned out (and i'm open to correction), that those extra voters were strong for bush (probably got tired of the press speaking for them in telling america how much the poor despised bush).

is guliani expected to run for republicans? i know, john mccain was up there (but he's from heavily republican state already)

[Easy E]

Sports Betting vs. Other Gambling? Who made that silly recommendation?

[dankhank]

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Sports Betting vs. Other Gambling? Who made that silly recommendation?

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whoever did so was correct he'd get good respones here, relax.

[MCS]

At Pinnacle, she's around 50% to get the nomination, and the Democrats are 50% to win the election.

Now we can't just multiply probabilities and conclude she's about 25% to win the presidency, because the two events are not independent. However, if 6-1 is a fair price, then it means Hillary is about 30% to win the presidency if nominated. (50% x 30% = 15% which is about 6-1.)

Then, because the Dems are 50% to win the presidency, this means non-Hillary Dems must have around a 70% chance of winning the presidency if nominated.

If you think other Democrats would actually be this much stronger than Hillary, it's a bad bet. If you don't think so, then it's a good bet.

It also means the Dems would be really stupid to nominate her.

To many factors here. I can't believe her odds of winning the presidency are anywhere close to 6 to 1 right now. These long terms prop bets are generally awesome deals for the house.
I'm not saying she won't win but don't think its worth a bet at this point.
You can bet me leaving the country if she does win, though I'm -3000000 on the ML on that but its a sure thing.

[Easy E]

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Sports Betting vs. Other Gambling? Who made that silly recommendation?

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whoever did so was correct he'd get good respones here, relax.

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I just assumed that, with all of the "forum correctness" that requires posts to match forums, someone wouldn't recommend this match.

Whatever, I don't care.