River Value Bet Situation, How Much?

100$ NL 6 Max on Absolute

Hero has Kc Qc UTG and limps (I will raise here often enough)
Folded to SB who completes, BB checks

Pot (3.00)
Flop: Ac 9c 7c

SB leads for 5$
BB Folds, Hero calls

Pot (13$)
Turn: 5d

Villain bets 5$
Hero raises to 15$
Villain calls

Pot(43$)
River: Jh (Final Board: Ac 9c 7c 5d Jh)

Villain checks

Hero bets how much?

[Morrek]

I'd probably raise turn to ~20, river is ~25-35 depending on feel for me.

[ajmargarine]

Minraise flop. $25 on river would be nice. $15-$25 depending on reads. Some NL100'ers are terrified of any bet over $15.

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I'd probably raise turn to ~20, river is ~25-35 depending on feel for me.

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His 5$ lead on the turn looked very scared, and 15 was really the most I thought he would call.

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Some NL100'ers are terrified of any bet over $15.

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This is pretty true, and villain seemed like one of those guys. His weakness on the turn really made me doubt he would be calling anything more than ~10$, which is what I bet. Not sure if I lost value or not, but the guy was pretty passive, and I didn't see him calling much more.

[Hattifnatt]

Raise preflop.

Make it $15-$20 on the flop.

As played, bet $35 or so on the river.

[ QUOTE ]
Raise preflop.

Make it $15-$20 on the flop.

As played, bet $35 or so on the river.

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No way this guy calls 35 on the river here IMO. I do like your idea of raising flop here.

[Hattifnatt]

You didnt supplied any reads. If I was you I bet near pot on the river in these situations without a read most of the time because they often suspect it for a bluff then. With a read I more often try to think how much I can milk out.

[ajmargarine]

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I do like your idea of raising flop here.

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I think you have to raise the flop. He's overbetting flop to protect his ace. You minraise. He's priced in. And now you make him c/c 2 bets on turn and river, sized so that you think he will call them both. Probably make an extra 10 bb's, and keep the door open for him in case he gets frisky and 3-bets you.

How much do you fire on turn/river after raising flop? Lets say I raised to 15, he calls, checks turn. My read on the guy was that he was passive and scared, in part due to his overbet on this flop. His turn action confirmed this. I think maybe I can bet 15 on turn and river after raising flop, which would be a nice amount of added value.

[ajmargarine]

$15-$15-$15 looks good to me.

$10-$15-$15 would be OK as well.

[nietzreznor]

stack sizes?

Assuming you each started with $100, I probably pot it here. If he's a guy who likes to make "big calls", maybe push. Also depends on how often you semi-bluff raise on turn and bluff rivers with missed draws.

[davekngs]

i like to raise PF but as you said you usually would and you was mixing your play up so nothing wrong there. I think you played it well. put 20 out on the river, any more may scare him off with the ace, I think thats all he really has. more than 25 is unlikely to be called here IMO.