Re-inventing the wheel: a blind play strategy

[cartman]

I am sure I must be missing something here and thanks in advance for any enlightenment on the topic.

Let's say a LAG open-raises from the CO and it is folded to me in the big blind. I estimate that he will open-raise here about 30% of the time. He is the kind that is very likely to raise either the flop or the turn if I 3-bet preflop. He is not a maniac, but plenty loose and plenty aggressive. He will show down Ace high or better virtually 100% of the time heads up. If I don't 3-bet preflop, he will bet the flop and the turn nearly 100% of the time and often bet the river also even with an Ace high type hand or as a pure bluff.

I am considering the possibility that I should not 3-bet preflop with hands that have marginal showdown value unimproved. For instance, AK or 55. The reason is that, although I am a favorite over his hand range, most of the time I will soon be in a precarious situation. First of all, the only time I will ever get a fold out of him is when I don't want one. When the flop doesn't improve me, I will very frequently face a flop or turn raise at which point I have to either call him down or risk folding the best hand.

If I just called his raise preflop and allowed him to continue pounding away regardless of his hand, getting to the showdown with my 55 or unimproved AK is far more affordable as I save 1 sb preflop and at least 1 sb postflop. When the flop does improve me I can ambush him with a checkraise on the street of my choosing.

For the sake of completeness I also speculate that this may be the best approach when I am the big blind facing an open-raise from this same opponent when he is in the small blind, even though I have position in that scenario and his hand range is considerably wider.

Why am I wrong?

Thanks,
Cartman

[Lmn55d]

I don't have a problem with calling with 55 (I actually think its best) but I think you should almost always 3bet AK against this sort of player. There's a big difference between the two hands. AK is way ahead of his range while 55 is not considering his range contains a ton of weaker aces and kings. You also give him the chance to make another mistake by capping preflop with his AJ or whatever.

So say you 3bet and the flop is rags you bet he raises. Big deal...if he is as LAG postflop as you say you have a pretty +EV calldown against his range and if you are behind you often have 6 outs anyway.

55 is different IMO b/c you're not ahead of his openraising range really and it presents a postflop situation where the reverse implied odds are greater because if you are ahead he usually has 6 outs and can bluffraise an A or K (those cards aren't scary if you hold AK!)

Also I would not describe a hand like 55 or AK as having "marginal" showdown value. KJ has marginal showdown value imo.

[Surfbullet]

Hey Cartman,

I've stopped 3betting in this situation for the most part (see myfreshly-made post about dealing with this sort of situation with KTo). This type of player bluffs and semi-bluffs too much...3betting to regain the initiative is worthless, because he'll raise us on the flop and turn with inferior hands so often that we are just costing ourselves money postflop.

I much prefer to see a flop. If I flop a piece I can go to war. If I don't, but I think my hand is good enough %age against his range (see other post) then I can call down or c/r the street of my choosing.

We don't make our money by taking the aggressive, fold-em-when-we-both-miss strategies against these types of LAGtards. We make money when we flop A-hi and they continuation-bluff J8o UI on 3 streets. We make money when we flop top pair, c/r the flop and have him call all 3 streets with KQ UI on an A-hi board. We make money when we hit a set, bet-call the flop and bet-3bet the turn, and he calls down 3rd pair. Trying to make them fold is just going to result in heartache for our BR.

Surf

Edit: I agree with the funky llama. I'm 3betting AK here for value b/c I can call it down UI and play more correctly vs his range. I'll flat call 55 so I can pick the boards where I put more bets in, instead of being "obligated" to cont-bet the flop regardless and having to fold the best hand on dangerous boards.

[cartman]

Thanks for your input. If you 3-bet preflop with your AK and you bet and get called on the flop, what is your turn plan? I tend to go into check and call mode against this type, but maybe this is a mistake. If you do bet the turn what is your plan for the rest of the hand if you get raised?

Thanks again,
Cartman

[Lmn55d]

whats the turn? If it pairs the board or is some other rag I will bet to induce a bluffraise/prevent free card/extract value and call down. Sometime I will check/call check/call depending on the card. I'm not folding too much.

[ QUOTE ]
I've stopped 3betting in this situation for the most part (see myfreshly-made post about dealing with this sort of situation with KTo). This type of player bluffs and semi-bluffs too much...3betting to regain the initiative is worthless, because he'll raise us on the flop and turn with inferior hands so often that we are just costing ourselves money postflop.

I much prefer to see a flop. If I flop a piece I can go to war. If I don't, but I think my hand is good enough %age against his range (see other post) then I can call down or c/r the street of my choosing.

We don't make our money by taking the aggressive, fold-em-when-we-both-miss strategies against these types of LAGtards. We make money when we flop A-hi and they continuation-bluff J8o UI on 3 streets. We make money when we flop top pair, c/r the flop and have him call all 3 streets with KQ UI on an A-hi board. We make money when we hit a set, bet-call the flop and bet-3bet the turn, and he calls down 3rd pair. Trying to make them fold is just going to result in heartache for our BR.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an excellent, intelligent post. You only want the initiative when the initiative has value. There's also the disadvantage of having initiative in that your reverse implied is usually higher.

[redbeard]

i'm quite interested to hear more on this subject so let this serve as a bump.

[kiddo]

[ QUOTE ]
He is not a maniac, but plenty loose and plenty aggressive. He will show down Ace high or better virtually 100% of the time heads up.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
If I just called his raise preflop and allowed him to continue pounding away regardless of his hand, getting to the showdown with my 55 or unimproved AK is far more affordable as I save 1 sb preflop and at least 1 sb postflop. When the flop does improve me I can ambush him with a checkraise on the street of my choosing.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the raiser is bad we can take the easy way and attack when we are ahead, check-call when we dont know and check-fold when we think we are behind. This is perfect against someone betting way to much and not adapting to what we do.

But if we only attack with an okay hand against a thinking player he will kill us HU. How hard is to play against a guy where you know that a checkraise on flop and a bet on turn always means better then a small pair? Or where a 3bet preflop means top 10% of hands?

If we used to 3bet 25% of the hands we played agains a stealraising LAG preflop we cant suddenly start to 3bet only the 10% best and call rest. Not unless other guy is stupid.

And since both we and him will miss most flops we cant start to just checkcall all those times we dont hit with those 15% we used to attack with preflop. Not unless he is stupid and unable to adjust.

Not saying its wrong to play some weaker hands more passive against LAGs, just saying that against a thinking player we must do it in a way that dont give our hand away, both preflop and postflop.

[Jinx]

I guess I'm cheating since I only play 5/10, but I thought this was a pretty interesting topic so I wanted to respond. While you certainly want to go to showdown with hands like A5o, there is the negative that he will eventually realize what is going on. If you only C/R big hands, even lags will eventually realize to fold. Also, If he sees that you're taking ace high to showdown very passively, he'll probably also learn to stop betting the turn, thuse giving him free cards to draw out on a pair to you.

When I first started playing abso I took this strategy because there were a ton of LAGtags there that I did not want to fold ace high against. However soon they realized my patterns and I was soon paying off ace high hands to mid pair and they were giving up their bluffs on the turn.

Against LAGS that can't learn and adjust, yeah, it seems good. But against thinking LAGS and players that recognize you and will adjust, doing just this probably won't work.

[Subfallen]

hi cartman,

[ QUOTE ]
Why am I wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

you're not wrong; the other option is to outlag the laggy motherfcuker and 3-bet liberally, following up with lots of liberal flop 3-betting

however this style is uber-high-variance nad should only be atrtempted when one is on teilt or drunk

[Surfbullet]

I wanted to comment more on this.

The danger in just going to war with showdownable hands and check-calling while drawing/unsure(as others have posited, and I have discovered through trial and error) is not necessarily that they will start folding - they won't, just semibluff a little - it's that they start to make the most ridiculous value-bets. They may not realize that they are value-bets, but that's what they are.

I had a hand where I flatcalled A7o in the BB Vs a nutsolag on the button. flop was raggy + paired, I c/c. Turn a relative blank, I c/c. River a non-pairing blank, totally nonthreatening. C/c again (villain has history of firing multiple barrelS). He's got A8o. He just made the most ridiculous value-bet, and i'm pretty sure he was trying to bluff me since i've called-turn, c/f-river a few times.

So, we have to mix it up a bit. Once in a while c-c, c-r, top pair, or even wait until the river! fastplay some monsters, fastplay a gutshot + over. get him used to you giving action, then shift gears and tighten up and attack with made hands once he's used to you hammering the flop. But it's important, nay, necessary, that a flop call doesn't mean the same thing every time...your peeling with a probable 6-outer and are weaker than average, most likely folding to a turn bet.

**Note, this applies to at least semi-aware opponents, ones who you encounter over and over. If you play 15/30 and like to sit 3-4 handed with a fish and a lag, this applies to you. If you 12 table 10/20 6max and don't see the same players for more than 20 hands you may be giving up EV by mixing up your play or even trying to apply this stuff while massively multitabling. IMO this type of thinking is critical for success at higher limits.

Surf