Value bet the river here?

[jackdaniels]

Villain lose and aggressive pre-flop and passive after flop after 30 hands or so.

PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (7 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
2 folds</font>, MP2 raises</font>, 1 fold</font>, ]Hero 3-bets</font>, [i]1 fold[/i, BB calls, MP2 caps, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12.33 SB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
BB checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (7.66 BB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
BB checks,MP2 bets, Hero raises, BB calls, MP2 folds.

River: (12.66 BB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero ???


Who value bets this rivar after villain calls 2 cold on turn?

[sean c]

I do. I would have raised the flop also.

[newhizzle]

id bet, youll get called by a smaller ace here pretty often

[jackdaniels]

[ QUOTE ]
I do. I would have raised the flop also.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would normally raise the flop but didn't want to scare off worse aces (AQ/AJ) and big PP. Also, the original raiser is a typical LAG, I put him on almost any ace and any PP.

You say the river bet for value is automatic? What is villain calling 2 more bets with pre-flop? And then cold calling two big bets on the turn? My spidey sense was screaming SET!!!!

[newhizzle]

[ QUOTE ]
You say the river bet for value is automatic? What is villain calling 2 more bets with pre-flop? And then cold calling two big bets on the turn? My spidey sense was screaming SET!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

i know 30 hands isnt much, but do you have any kind of read on how loose he is post-flop?
i mean is he the type to call a lot of bets with marginal values?
do you think hed slowplay a set all the way to the river?

if hes really passive maybe you could fold to a raise, i probly wouldnt, but i really think you have to bet, he may have you beat sometimes, but i think hes calling with worse hands a lot

[jackdaniels]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You say the river bet for value is automatic? What is villain calling 2 more bets with pre-flop? And then cold calling two big bets on the turn? My spidey sense was screaming SET!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

i know 30 hands isnt much, but do you have any kind of read on how loose he is post-flop?
i mean is he the type to call a lot of bets with marginal values?
do you think hed slowplay a set all the way to the river?

if hes really passive maybe you could fold to a raise, i probly wouldnt, but i really think you have to bet, he may have you beat sometimes, but i think hes calling with worse hands a lot

[/ QUOTE ]

He is fairly passive, I could see him having any mid pair, any big ace also but no big pair (JJ-AA) based on his pre flop call (and not cap). Ofcourse, like you said, 30 hands isn't much.

I like what you said about him having me beat here sometimes but often calling with a second best hand.

[thejameser]

easy value bet. no reason to get scared of a set here. it is much more likely he has a weak ace that he wants to showdown. lots of people call down with top pair weak kicker. i think a better question involves bet/call or bet/fold.

[jackdaniels]

[ QUOTE ]
i think a better question involves bet/call or bet/fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

Considering my read on the turn, I think I can find a fold here if I get c/r on the river.

Results in white below:

<font color="white">Hero DID bet, got called by A6 (two pair - now we know why he called 2 cold on turn) and MHNG. </font>

[thejameser]

30 hands is closer to no read than it is to an actual read. that said, there are times you can use limited sample size to help in your decision-making. he sucked out on you, it happens. would he call two on the flop with an Ace no kicker? hmmm.

[ QUOTE ]
I would normally raise the flop but didn't want to scare off worse aces (AQ/AJ) and big PP.

[/ QUOTE ]

I raelly don't like this logic. The pot is big by the flop, fight for it! Most SS players can't lay down AQ/AJ here and they probably shouldn't because the pot is pretty large. They'll call and you'll gain a ton of value. I don't think it's about waiting for the turn to protect your hand here either, as this board is not scary in any way.

Your flop slowplay may have cost you the pot as this guy made his raggedy 2 pair on the turn (not to be too results oriented, but I really think it's situations exactly like this one that are why you want to raise the flop in a spot like this.)

[ QUOTE ]
You say the river bet for value is automatic? What is villain calling 2 more bets with pre-flop? And then cold calling two big bets on the turn? My spidey sense was screaming SET!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that the times this guy calls you with something like AQ or AJ will far outnumber the times that this guy has a set.

He calls 2 more with A6 os from BB out of position, I think he calls this flop with top pair. I think your raise on the flop wouldn't have pushed him out.

If I look at the hand, I think this play is not too bad. The flop is completely drawless and we have a guy who capped preflop betting into us, his hand range for capping only beats us with AA, which there is only one combination of. He draws with us with AK 6 times, but he also loses with KK, QQ, AQs and JJ. If we raise here after re-raising him preflop he may get rid of KK, QQ, JJ but may only call with AQs. If we just call this flop we can bring BB along and also get MP2 to hopefully keep betting this for us.

I am not sure if my thinking is correct here, but we have the best hand almost 100% of the time here on the flop with not much chance for our opponents to improve (2/3 outs). IF Mp2 will continue to bet this on the turn with KK / QQ etc and he has only 2 outs of equity, (approximately 4.5% of equity) the pot is currently 6.25BB and if you and BB call the flop it will be 7.75BB. He has only 0.4BB in equity but may put 2BB in on the turn.

I am not sure if my thinking is correct here, but surely we can lose 0.4BB of equity if our MP2 will bet the turn here more than 20% of the time?

Am I right here or way off?

I just read this again, I forget that if we raise here we increase our equity by increasing the size of the pot. If BB is calling with Ax and has 3 outs, then for the 3SB that are put in from our raise we have an increase of about 1.8SB(90% of 2 SB) in equity which may far superior than the 1.9SB (95% of 1BB on the turn) that we get IF MP2 bets out the turn. (IF he doesn't bet out the turn and we are still ahead we can bet and if we are in the same situation we gain 1.9BB (90% of 2BB))

This is only correct if BB is going to call this flop and turn. Is my way of thinking correct as I wouldn't want to continue using an insane method :S.

I bet that river when BB checks to me. I agree with what was said above that if he c/r you then you are in a sticky situation. I think more than often you are beat as the board was drawless.

I also think that when he bets it is a hard decision to make as his bet really only signifies that he is betting incase you check. I think that the pot allows you to call as he may bet a hand such as A-x hoping his top pair is good.

[ QUOTE ]
He calls 2 more with A6 os from BB out of position, I think he calls this flop with top pair. I think your raise on the flop wouldn't have pushed him out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who knows? Pushing him out is a benefit but most importantly you put him in a spot where it he has to make a big mistake to stay in the hand. Calling 1 with A6o and that kind of pf action is probably not good but not incredibly terrible, calling 2 is real bad. Also, sometimes bad players play weird in the BB. Who knows?

Results aside I still think the flop raise is correct.

[ QUOTE ]
his hand range for capping only beats us with AA, which there is only one combination of. He draws with us with AK 6 times, but he also loses with KK, QQ, AQs and JJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. You have the best hand and the pot is big. You want to win this pot right now if you can. Raise raise raise!

[ QUOTE ]
If we raise here after re-raising him preflop he may get rid of KK, QQ, JJ but may only call with AQs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good! I don't want to "keep my customers" here with a measly top pair hand. I want to put my bad loose opponents in a spot to make big mistakes or alternatively just pick up the pot right here. That's ok.

[ QUOTE ]
If we just call this flop we can bring BB along and also get MP2 to hopefully keep betting this for us.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you want this? I think you gain a whole lot more value just by raising this flop. I like your combinatorial analysis and I'd do my own but I gotta run. If I have time later I will address that part of your post but it will take a little time to type that up.

[damaniac]

[ QUOTE ]
He calls 2 more with A6 os from BB out of position, I think he calls this flop with top pair. I think your raise on the flop wouldn't have pushed him out.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, he wouldn't have folded, but he would have been incorrect to call, meaning you profit. Instead, failing to raise gave him correct odds to call on a 3-outer. Normally you are happy to string someone along when you dominate them. Not however when they are getting good odds to call.

[silkyslim]

omg gotta value bet. raise the flop also. maybe HU get away with this but 3 way you still have to protect.

I bet this river. What are you putting the BB on? I think he would have raised the set by now, or bet into you on the river if he had a set. Same with 2 pair. I think most likely he's a fishy player that has a pair of aces with a weak kicker and is just calling down.
Bet/call the river.

@ Tsai Shen / Damaniac,

can you please put figures with your posts, you don't seem to back up which plays have the better expectation.

I am sure it is a bigger error to let MP2 bet a hand on the turn which he may fold on the flop or to a turn bet after calling a flop raise than it is to allow our BB to make a smaler mistake on the flop.

At present if we are against 5 outs that may hurts us, we have 90% equity in this pot. I am just saying that I think allowing them to make an error of 90% of a BB is better than allowing them to continue on when they only have an equity of approximately 5% in this only 7.25 BB pot.

If you could put some formulas or actually data to present that this is actually incorrect then I would be interested to see why.

[damaniac]

Villain behind us is getting 14.33:1 on a flop call, not factoring in implied odds. If he has another pair plus another non-K card, he's got 5 outs, A worse kicker has 3. Both hands are getting correct odds to call 1 bet, but not 2. If he calls 2 bets incorrectly, you gain (assuming you have the bettor beat, which you virtually always do). If he folds, not a disaster either, but him calling 1 bet correctly sucks.

As far as scaring the bettor, if he has a worse A, he's going to showdown anyway so no concerns there. If has a big pair, well, he'll often give up on the turn anyway if he's called in 2 spots, and he almost certainly isn't betting the river into 2 opponents. Add in the times he occassionally spikes a 2-outer and takes a lot of your money and you are losing little if anything in stopping him. You do lose something by letting the player behind you call profitably.

This does all depend however on how often player behind has a pair of some sort (or any hand with 3 or more outs) and how often bettor has only a big pair.

[damaniac]

Also, there are a few gutshot possibilities with 4 outs as well that a loose player may play in the BB. Not horribly likely, but another few combos you'd like to charge 2 bets.

Thank you Damaniac,

if this pot didn't contain BB, would call / call / call be better than raising the flop?