Standard or ballsy?

[Obliky]

So this hand came up in a session i was having reviewed, this is pretty standard for me but my reviewer said they werent sure...

I only have a small number (~40) hands on villians:

SB is 53/17/1.4
UTG is 57/0/0.6

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10 SB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, UTG calls.

River: (9.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font> ...

[MexKrax]

Just check the river. Most of the time you're getting called by someone with a jack or getting c/r'd by slowplayed trips. You beat missed flush and straight draws and anyone who's hanging around with something like A7. If this was heads up you could be hoping SB has one of these hands and calls you, but with UTG along for the ride I think this is a clear check.

[jrbick]

I definitely check behind on the river. I wouldn't call this a "standard" play, but I think the board looks alright on the turn for you to give it a shot and go to showdown (for free).

nice table selection, btw.

[Obliky]

I guess the reason i bet the river is that (typically) villians this loose may well call me with hands like AK and AQ..should plays like this be restricted to when i have a clear read?

[jrbick]

Well, the reason I recommended checking behind is because of how passive they are and because you've got 2 people calling the turn. Passive players are definitely slowing down to that second ten w/ top pair... if you notice, they slow down w/ the nut straight if there's a 3 flush, they slow down with the nut flush if the board is paired... they're almost always afraid of the least, likely holding of their opponents.

[imported_leader]

It's ok against these two. You're likely getting called by 7x, PPs, and A-high. You won't win every time, but it's just enough I think.

[Redd]

Given the reads, I think betting the river is fine. You're obviously beating SB's overs (ok, possibly 99 or fancy set but unlikely), and UTG looks like such a monkey that you're ahead of his range of craptacular crap plus some jacks. I think you have a good chance of making one or both of them pay off. It's an easy fold to a raise.

[DCWildcat]

Good bet. Those stats indicate a calldown with a 7 wouldn't be hard for UTG. SB probably has AK or AQ.

[MrWookie47]

I was the reviewer who called this hand into question. Once SB checks that turn, you can be pretty confident that you're ahead of him. You have a minor concern about 99, but that's it. The question is if UTG bets a J when checked to. He's pretty passive. He might also be scared of the T. I definitely like the turn bet. Given the action, it's clear no one has a T when you make it to the river. I doubt SB is calling w/ anything we beat (unlikely to call at all), but I could see UTG with 7x played this way. Hmmm. I think Jx is more likely than 7x, since he's more likely to limp a hand with a J than with a 7. Does some draw that paired with the river brick tip the scales to give us the 55%? I actually don't think so, now. I think that although I expect to win this about 2/3 of the time (UTG missed some decent or even wonky draw pretty often here, too), I don't think there's quite enough value in a bet.

[Redd]

Wookie, I disagree with basically two points in your analysis.

First, I wouldn't be that surprised to see SB pay off with AK/AQ/AJ/66 or something here, since he's seems pretty laggy. IMO There would likely even value in a HU bet against him on this board. IMO the fact that we occasionally extract a BB from the LAG on this board brings our required winning % low enough to justify a value-bet.

Second, I think that our hand range for the LP monkey should be more than just 7x/Tx. 3x is mildly possible, as is a lower pocket. A call from ace-high is even possible, since judging by these numbers calling down is this guy's specialty. So I think we're ahead more often than you seem to feel we are.

[MrWookie47]

I estimated us winning 45-50% when called in this spot, which is not quite enough. SB paying off is a consideration. Any measure of his WtSD? Is he willing to show down A high? I could see that pushing us over the top. It's definitely close.

[jrbick]

I agree that we've probably got SB covered, it was UTGs presence in the hand at this juncture that made me think "hmmmmm." If they're both river/showdown junkies (50+%), then I won't argue against a bet on the river. I think for this to be a good bet though, we have to be pretty sure that SB calls w/ his big ace hands here (and I think the likelihood of that in this hand is slightly higher than usual... there's something about these guys and paired boards that makes them like Ace high).

EDIT to say that I forgot that these uber passive guys are also slowing down now w/ QQ+. So we have more in this guy's hand range to consider than just big aces or small pocket pairs.