KK - Lots of stuff going on

[JTG51]

I thought I had pretty interesting decisions on almost every street in this hand.

Full 10 handed 4/8 at Foxwoods. Very loose and passive. The action on this hand is coming from an unknown player UTG.

UTG raises, I 3-bet from MP. Button, a fishy calling station woman calls 3 cold on the button. Blinds fold, UTG calls. 3 to the flop for 9 bets.

Flop: 9 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 8 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 3 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif

UTG checks, I bet, Button calls. UTG check raises, I 3-bet, Button calls again, UTG caps, I call, Button calls.

Turn: [9 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 8 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 3 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif ] 4 /forums/images/icons/club.gif

UTG bets, I call, Button calls.

RIver: [9 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 8 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 3 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 4 /forums/images/icons/club.gif ] Q /forums/images/icons/club.gif

UTG checks, I bet.

What do you think of my play, especially on the turn and river?

[Homer]

What do you think of my play, especially on the turn and river?

Hard to say without knowing what cards you had.

I'm guessing your A /forums/images/icons/heart.gif Q /forums/images/icons/heart.gif beat UTG's JJ? If so, then I'd say you played it well.

-- Homer

[Homer]

To expand on my hand reading a little...

UTG

Preflop - Raised from UTG, then only called your three-bet. Looks like he has 88-QQ, AQ, AJs.

Flop - Went to war with rags on board. Looks like he's pumping a set with 88-99, an overpair with TT-QQ or the nut flush draw with AQh or AJh.

Turn - Since he bet again it's less likely he's on the flush draw.

River - Since he checked, he doesn't have AQh, 88, or 99. He either has a busted flush draw with AJh, TT or JJ.

You

Preflop - You three-bet an UTG raiser in a loose-PASSIVE game. Assuming UTG is typically passive, you have JJ-AA, AKs or AQs.

Flop - You could be going to war with an overpair (JJ-AA) or the nut flush draw (AQh or AKh).

Turn - You just called UTG's bet. Either you are on the nut flush draw or you suspect that your QQ-JJ is no good. I suspect it is the flush draw because you might raise the turn with QQ-JJ even if you think that it might not be good, because you intend to call down anyway, and by raising you can knock out the button and hopefully get UTG to call and check to you on the river (in which case you can check behind).

River - When UTG checks, you must put him on a busted nut flush draw or JJ-TT. So, you either have QQ, JJ or AQh

-- Homer

[Inthacup]

Check the title of his post Homer.

[JTG51]

Wow, good analysis. I guess that means you didn't like my turn play though, since I had KK. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

I put it in the subject line, but forgot to put it in the post. Sorry for the confusion, but it was worth it since it led to a really good response from you.

[JTG51]

Turn - You just called UTG's bet. Either you are on the nut flush draw or you suspect that your QQ-JJ is no good. I suspect it is the flush draw because you might raise the turn with QQ-JJ even if you think that it might not be good, because you intend to call down anyway, and by raising you can knock out the button and hopefully get UTG to call and check to you on the river (in which case you can check behind).

To me, that is the important decision here. When he check raised the flop I was quite confident he had TT-QQ. When I 3-bet, I thought I made it pretty clear that I could beat those hands, making it more likely that he had a set. I thought about raising the turn with my KK, but I really didn't want to face a 3-bet and have to decide if it was a super frisky QQ/JJ or a set. I'm not sure if that makes me a sissy or not, that's what I'm looking for comments on.

If I had raised the turn and UTG called, I would have definitely planned on betting the river.

[Homer]

Ahh yes, the title. Oh well, not knowing what he had made analyzing the hand more interesting.

-- Homer

[Homer]

To me, that is the important decision here. When he check raised the flop I was quite confident he had TT-QQ. When I 3-bet, I thought I made it pretty clear that I could beat those hands, making it more likely that he had a set.

I'm wondering how passive this guy is. If he is fairly passive he won't raise preflop from UTG with 88 and probably not with 99 either. When he raises and just calls your three-bet preflop, it seems like he must have TT-QQ. When he goes to war with you on the flop, it decreases the likelihood he has TT-QQ and increases the likelihood that he has a set or a strangely played AA-KK, but it doesn't change things all that much in my mind. This is because most players won't go to war on the flop with a set, and as I already said I don't think that he would raise with 88-99 preflop. Also, many players, even ones that are generally passive, will go to war on the flop with an overpair, without taking into account that an opponent might have a higher overpair. Most players tend to just look at the board and their hand, think "I have an overpair", and bang away. They don't take into account action that has taken place during the hand that might suggest that they are behind. They don't compare their hand to the possible hands of their opponents. It's kind of like when someone has Ax, bets out on a flop of A82r and is raised, check calls when a blank comes on the turn, but checkraises the river when another A comes. All they think is "my hand has improved". They don't consider whether their hand has improved relative to their opponent's hand. Anyhoo, I'm going off on a tangent here...

Another thing -- even if you think there is a decent chance that you are behind on the turn, you should probably raise anyway to knock the button out. The pot is quite large and you should be doing whatever you can to increase your probability of taking it down.

-- Homer

[Barry]

Hi Jeff -

I read the title, so I know what you have.

UTG could have flopped a set, but I would guess that he has an overpair to the flop. Since he didn't cap preflop, I would put him on TT-QQ. I suppose he could have something like A /forums/images/icons/heart.gif K /forums/images/icons/heart.gif too.

As such I would be tempted to raise the turn as well, but since he did cap the flop, calling isn't too bad either.

When he checks the turn, his flush draw didn't get there or the Q now beats his TT or JJ. As aggressive as he's been, I can't see him going for a checkraise with QQ. So I think you've got him beat and you've got a good value bet here. The button has me a little worried; hopefully she doesn't have something like Q9.

[JTG51]

I'm wondering how passive this guy is.

Me too. As I said in the first post, he was an unknown. I'd never seen him before and he had just sat down at the table a few minutes before this hand came up.

Another thing -- even if you think there is a decent chance that you are behind on the turn, you should probably raise anyway to knock the button out. The pot is quite large and you should be doing whatever you can to increase your probability of taking it down.

I agree in theory. I don't think a raise on the turn increases my chances of winning at all though. I can't imagine the button folding any hand that she took all that heat on the flop with.

I think it's a close decision or I wouldn't be asking, so you are probably right.

[JTG51]

The button has me a little worried; hopefully she doesn't have something like Q9.

Q9 didn't cross my mind, JT did though.

[Barry]

Homer makes a good point about the button. I think that that makes a turn raise a better play than a call here.

[JTG51]

The button folded to my river bet, UTG called. He showed JJ as he mucked.

Thanks for the comments.

[Ed Miller]

I put JTG squarely on exactly KK. Do you see why?

[JTG51]

It's that kind of hand reading ability that makes you a winning player. I'll leave it to others to elaborate.

[Homer]

Because you know that he likes to post hands that he played like a total wuss? /forums/images/icons/tongue.gif

[JTG51]

You know me too well. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

I've got a couple from last night that I may post that I thought I wussed out on also.

[Joe Tall]

What do you think of my play, especially on the turn and river?

Academic. Nuff said.