More NBA free agent thoughts

[IrishHand]

Consider this not unlikely scenario:

-Kidd resigns in Jersey for the max allowable, realizing that he's got a great chance of the Finals year-in-year out with that young, athletic and talented squad. He's got a better chance of winning a ring coming from a 3-star team in the East than he does as a member of one of three or more 4-star teams in the West.

-Jermaine O'Neal resigns in Indiana for the max. It'll be his team for years to come, and this is a big factor in many star's decisions (see Kevin Garnett, Tracy McGrady, Stephon Marbury, et al).

-Elton Brand takes the $60M/6yr deal the Clips are offering him. Sure, it sucks being a Clip - but that's a lot of green and it is LA after all. If he doesn't the team'll just match whatever offer another team makes anyway.

-Mourning signs in Dallas for the $4.9M exception, believing he can bring the intensity and defense the team lacks to win a championship (won't happen, but that's another matter).

My point? San Antonio fans should be very scared. They were praised and revered in the weeks leading up to the draft for their stellar financial planning - they had all this cap room to add to an already championship roster. Of course, Robinson is gone, as are most other veterans on the squad (Willis, Ferry, Smith). If they don't get Kidd, O'Neal or Brand, they're left with someone else's sloppy seconds. Does anyone seriously think that Brad Miuller or Olowakandi will propel them past the giants of the West in coming years? Cap room is great - if you can find someone that wants to take it off your hands.

[andyfox]

"San Antonio fans should be very scared."

Of what? There are more brains on that team than on all of their competitors' combined. And an argument could be made that they've now won twice in the last five years with their own sloppy seconds. Even if CW doesn't go down, the Kings still have Vlade as their center. Dallas still has Don Nelson as their coach and Nick van Hog. And the Lakers may need four basketballs, as someone else pointed out in the other thread.

Don't cry for San Antonio.

[Clarkmeister]

Cmon Andy, saying that "even without Webber the Kings have Vlade" isn't that far from saying that even without Duncan, the Spurs still had Robinson last year.

[andyfox]

Vlade is just plain stupid. Robinson is not.

My favorite comment about Vlade came when the Lakers traded him (they got someone pretty good for him as I recall). One of the L.A. sportwriters (doen't remember who) wrote, "He was the best player we ever had named Vlade."

[IrishHand]

-Since it appears that all major free agents have chosen their destinations at this point (Kidd, Mourning - NJ, Payton, Malone - LAL, O'Neal - IND, Brand - LAC), the Spurs will likely go into next year with the same team as last year, only minus Robinson, Ferry, Kerr, Claxton, Willis and Smith. Of course, they'll still sign a marginal free agent or two with their wads of cash, but their window of opportunity to aquire a "difference-maker" appears to have slammed shut. A squad of Duncan/Rose/Jackson/Ginobili/Parker should be good for making the playoffs in the West, but certainly without home-court advantage - in the 1st round.

-If the Clippers are even remotely bright, they sit around and then match basically every offer their FAs sign elsewhere. Maggette for $42M over 6 years is a decent price. Odom, amazingly, can probably be had for less. Same goes for Miller and Olowakandi. Brand can be had for $10M or so a year. If the worst owner in pro sports can be convinced to shell out $38M per year on a very, very good and very, very young starting 5, that team could become solid in no time. (I blame much of last year's debacle on the innate selfishness which accompanies your entire team being in their contract years.)

-Utah will be one of the worst teams in the NBA next year. Their best players are Andrei Kirilenko - who didn't even start last year, and Matt Harpring - a useful 4th option on most teams.

-Dallas screwed up large by retaining Don Nelson as coach. When was the last time his team won a big game? He coaches games more like a mad scientist than an astute bench general. His managerial skills aren't far off either. That team is saddled with more bad contracts than any other this side of the Knicks.

[Clarkmeister]

Maggette is worth nowhere near that amount.

I haven't heard it mentioned, but I think Brand is a pretty good fit for the Spurs. He doesn't want to be the Man, and in SA he won't be.

Lord knows where they'll get the shooter they need though.

[IrishHand]

Maggette is getting 3rd/4th option amoney and is a solid 3rd option. He's a solid scorer, a very good perimiter defender, and he's only 25 years old. I'd say he's definitely worth $7M a year under a $40M cap. If he continues to improve, he could turn out to be a 2nd option - if not, he'll remain a valuable 3rd option.

If Brand really wants to be a Spur, he'll need to sign a 1-year deal with the Clips. The Clips will match any offer sheet he signs.

San Antonio will be lucky to get much of anything at this point. PJ Brown even scorned them today, option to return to the Hornets.

[Clarkmeister]

PJ Brown accepted like $9mm/yr, way more than he is worth.

Maybe I've just got player values screwed up in my own mind, but Brown and Maggette both seem way overcompensated. Isn't the max like 13 mil?

[IrishHand]

Depends on what you mean by "max". A given player's "max" depends on his prior year's salary, his time in the NBA, his time with his present team, and a team's cap room. A max deal for Kidd in NJ will be $99M/6 yrs, or about $16.5M per year. To help wrap your mind around NBA salaries, I found the following quote from an NBA executive: "Max players get about $15 million, mid-levels about $6-8 million, low levels $3-5 million, and then minimum contracts for $1-3 million (including rookies.) "

With that in mind, I agree that PJ Brown is overpriced at around $34M/4 yrs - but not too badly. I think that Maggette, given his talent, age and potential, is a more valuable player - at least to those teams with cap room. Of course, I'm still one of those folks who thinks that Lamar Odom could turn into one of the top 10 players in the NBA if he got his head out of his bunghole (and the weed out of his Escalade).