$11 Push with 53o?

[aaronk56]

Blinds 75/150

UTG 3303
CO 1786
Button 486
Hero 1098
BB 1327

3 folds, Hero has 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif3 /images/graemlins/club.gif raises 1023 all-in

The blinds were going up to 100/200 in a couple of hands. BB was a donk but can he be loose enough so this was bad?

Even without the blinds increasing, this push should be +EV. In your case, since the blinds were increasing soon, this push is definitely +EV.

[mosdef]

[ QUOTE ]
Even without the blinds increasing, this push should be +EV. In your case, since the blinds were increasing soon, this push is definitely +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

It depends on the calling range of the BB. If he is a loose caller then he will often make a call that is -EV for him and also -EV for you. These loose callers (who are all over the $11s) will massacre you if you make pushes like this.

[liucipher]

[ QUOTE ]
These loose callers (who are all over the $11s) will massacre you if you make pushes like this.[ QUOTE ]


very true.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
These loose callers (who are all over the $11s) will massacre you if you make pushes like this.[ QUOTE ]


very true.

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people should play with sngpt before they say stuff like this, to find out how loose the guy really has to be before it makes it a bad push.

c

Push it.

[liucipher]

Yeah, sorry. I refuse to buy SnGPT since I think EastBay is gouging us on the price.

j/k.

I was going to buy SnGPT today, but my girlfriend insisted on getting it for me for x-mas, so now I gotta wait a month.

5 handed though, I'm going to presume any loose-ish calling range is going to cause problems for this hand.

Anybody want to confirm?

[mosdef]

Hi Citanul. Thanks for your input. I understand your point, but I know the guy has to be really loose. I have been called on the bubble by all kinds of crazy stuff, especially when I've been pushing into the same guy over and over. Of course you are right that pushing even terrible cards like this is often +EV. In retrospect, my comment ("massacre") was over the top. But I think you need to be careful pushing really crappy hands into players at the $11s because they "should" be folding a wide range. The reality is that they call with a wide range.

Confession: I didn't run this through SNGPT for different ranges, so you are almost certainly right that the villain has to be surprisingly loose to hurt you.

[aaronk56]

I actually did the numbers by hand, like a good student should, and it was .88 -EV with a range of 22+, Ax, Kxs, K9o+, Qxs, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o. So my question really is can I expect people to be this loose?

Oh yes you can, people will call you with silly stuff if they think you are "bluffing".

Still, the real question is: do you expect _your_ villain to be this loose?

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
I actually did the numbers by hand, like a good student should, and it was .88 -EV with a range of 22+, Ax, Kxs, K9o+, Qxs, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o. So my question really is can I expect people to be this loose?

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't think it's reasonable to expect people to call with less than J9 here. you arent THAT short. i understand its an 11, but I have a fair few 11s under my belt and, while there might be a donk once a set that is calling with those cards, the vast majority are folding.

[playtitleist]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I actually did the numbers by hand, like a good student should, and it was .88 -EV with a range of 22+, Ax, Kxs, K9o+, Qxs, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o. So my question really is can I expect people to be this loose?

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't think it's reasonable to expect people to call with less than J9 here. you arent THAT short. i understand its an 11, but I have a fair few 11s under my belt and, while there might be a donk once a set that is calling with those cards, the vast majority are folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

We can't count on our villains to be unreasonable. We must expect them to act rationally. Otherwise it's chaos. That is not to suggest all villains are rational all the time. Not even close. But we can't strategize around it. Making the +EV play every time means we make a move with an expectation that the villain will react rationally. That is also not to say they would make the move we would make.

This is the reason we get bitter when villain calls our AA push with J9o and sucks out.