Are my calculations correct?

I am not so great at math but I wanted to know if I got this calculation correct.

On partypoker you can place a side bet on wether the flop will come all one color or not e.g. if the flop comes /images/graemlins/diamond.gif /images/graemlins/heart.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif you win if you pick red. Or if you pick black and the flop comes /images/graemlins/club.gif /images/graemlins/spade.gif /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

Anyway I assumed that you have a 50% of picking 1 correct color. A 25% of picking two correct colors and a 12.5% of picking 3 correct colors. So on a given flop you have about a 12.5% chance of calling the color correctly. Anyway the bet, if hit, pays 8 to 1. So as I see it, you have an 8.8 to 1 one chance of guessing correctly. But when you do guess correctly you are only getting paid 8 to 1. So the house advantage is about 11%!? I am not sure about that, so anyway correct that if wrong. Anyway if the bet is 2$ and the house advantage is 11% than partypoker makes about .22 cents per 2$ bet. Is this all correct?

[BruceZ]

[ QUOTE ]
I am not so great at math but I wanted to know if I got this calculation correct.

On partypoker you can place a side bet on wether the flop will come all one color or not e.g. if the flop comes /images/graemlins/diamond.gif /images/graemlins/heart.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif you win if you pick red. Or if you pick black and the flop comes /images/graemlins/club.gif /images/graemlins/spade.gif /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

Anyway I assumed that you have a 50% of picking 1 correct color. A 25% of picking two correct colors and a 12.5% of picking 3 correct colors. So on a given flop you have about a 12.5% chance of calling the color correctly. Anyway the bet, if hit, pays 8 to 1. So as I see it, you have an 8.8 to 1 one chance of guessing correctly. But when you do guess correctly you are only getting paid 8 to 1. So the house advantage is about 11%!? I am not sure about that, so anyway correct that if wrong. Anyway if the bet is 2$ and the house advantage is 11% than partypoker makes about .22 cents per 2$ bet. Is this all correct?

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P(red) = P(black) = 26/52 * 25/51 * 24/50 = C(26,3)/C(52,3)

= 1 in 8.5 = 7.5-to-1.

I guarantee it doesn't pay 8-to-1. Look carefully, and you'll see it pays 8-FOR-1, which means 7-TO-1 (1 of the dollars is your own). So in 17 plays you win 7 bets 2 times and lose 1 bet 15 times for a net win of 14-15 = -1 bet, for a house edge of 1/17 = 5.88%, or 11.76 cents per $2 bet.

If you have a "red" hand the probability for a "black" flop is C(26,3)/C(50,3) which has odds of 1 : 7.5 If they pay 8 for 1 you should bet if you have a hand of one color type.

(oops, too late, Bruce is of course right.)

[BruceZ]

Corrected house edge: 1/17 = 5.88% = 11.76 cents per $2 bet.

[BruceZ]

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If you have a "red" hand the probability for a "black" flop is C(26,3)/C(50,3) which has odds of 1 : 7.5 If they pay 8 for 1 you should bet if you have a hand of one color type.

(oops, too late, Bruce is of course right.)

[/ QUOTE ]

It says that your side bet applies to the next deal, so you can't bet after you see your hole cards. If you could, the odds would be 6.5-to-1 (not 7.5-to-1) and it would be a good deal if they paid you 8-for-1 which is 7-to-1. So for a $2 bet, 2 suited hole cards would change a 12 cent loss into a 13 cent profit. Too bad they apparently know how to calculate this too. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Okay, i did not know that. I stopped playing at Party because I think the site is fishy ... /images/graemlins/laugh.gif