Where do you give up? Blind wars at 20/40.

[Grisgra]

Folded to you in the SB. BB is a 50/20 LAG very common at the 20/40 Party scene.

You have KQo, and raise. He 3-bets you; you imagine he'd do this with a very, very wide variety of holdings (any pocket, any ace, probably anything T9o and up and maybe even some worse hands.)

Flop comes J42r. What is your plan?

Some (useless) results after I hear your thoughts.

[Alobar]

I just fold cuz im a little bitch. A c/r will never move him off, he will bet every single street, making it max expensive for me to call down, and im behind the majority of his holdings now anyway.

I uber hate these spots, and my WR is prolly a direct reflection of how poorly I handle them /images/graemlins/frown.gif

I hate this too. I think you can peel one atleast. /images/graemlins/smile.gif Then when you got a real hand you go to war. And I mean war.

[TStoneMBD]

id cap preflop but i would just peel this flop. 7:1 plus implied odds is enough to peel 6 outs that probably arent tainted with metagame considerations.. he may also check the turn giving you another card to look at.

[Victor]

if he has been getting out of line, and it sounds he is always out of line, i would cap preflop.

otherwise i peel one and fold the turn. what else can you do?

[spydog]

Based on your description of his possible holdings, I think you need to cap this preflop. Also, I think you need to be calling this one down on a J42r board. I can't imagine a better board to call down on with KQo against the player you describe. I'm surprised most people are folding this on the turn.

If you're not comfortable calling him down on a lot of boards here you need to cap for value + initiative and try and run him over, particularily if he's kind of weak post-flop.

[Victor]

another option is to limp reraise pf. now you gain initiative with less bets going in pf. hmmm, i think im gonna do this more.

[Grisgra]

Glad to see everyone is confused as I am.

I wonder whether capping and then check/calling down UI is a completely and totally insane idea. All I know is that I've been spewing a lot of chips without seeing a showdown lately in situations like these.

What happened was, of course, I checkraised the flop, got 3-bet, and check/folded the turn UI. He probably had a pocket or a weak ace, and I probably saved myself a bet (but maybe passed up 6 outs on the river). Hate these situations, because I see aggression here with utter crap a LOT of the time. Hell, I do it myself sometimes . . . and then miss and end up getting screwed then too /images/graemlins/confused.gif.

[Surfbullet]

sometimes I cap preflop, and take it from there. The problem is that many of these guys will put a raise in on the flop with A-hi(regardless of kicker) so I don't really like putting that many bets in PF with a hand like KQ which, while strong, I am not going to be able to profitably take to showdown.

I'm going to try out the LRR thing that Victor mentioned, it's good in a theoretical sense but if it doesn't slow the guy down postflop i'm not sure what the answer is... as one poster said, you really have to go to war once you get a hand(2nd pair+) because they pay you off soooo good. but KQ-hi isn't the spot to do it IMO. In the situation described I'll peel one and then c/f the turn. If I turn a good drawing card (gutshot etc) occasionally i'll c/r the turn if I think his range is mostly unpaired cards.

Surf

[imported_azalin]

[ QUOTE ]
Folded to you in the SB. BB is a 50/20 LAG very common at the 20/40 Party scene.

You have KQo, and raise. He 3-bets you; you imagine he'd do this with a very, very wide variety of holdings (any pocket, any ace, probably anything T9o and up and maybe even some worse hands.)

Flop comes J42r. What is your plan?

Some (useless) results after I hear your thoughts.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lately i am trying to just complete in those situations cause the fact is that i dont want to have initiative. I know that sounds absurd and i miss a lot of value but when i c/r the turn (or the flop and then lead) without having showed aggresion before at least i know that he must have SOMETHING to call the continuation bet more often than not. Am i being crazy here? I am interested to hear what you think about that.

[Danenania]

[ QUOTE ]

otherwise i peel one and fold the turn. what else can you do?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not call down?

[Grisgra]

Board: Jh 4d 2s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 41.4794 % 40.25% 01.23% { KQo }
Hand 2: 58.5206 % 57.29% 01.23% { 22+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, Q2s, J9s+, J6s, T9s, T4s, 98s, 75s, A2o+, K7o+, K3o, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o, 97o, 76o }

I figured he'd 3bet with any ace, any pocket, any broadway, and a few random crappy hands. I'm 40:60 after the flop; supposing that he bets the flop and turn with any two if I just check/call, and bets the river if he has a piece or an ace/bets it only half the time if he's behind to me:

40% of the time I put in 2.5BB to win ~6BB
60% of the time I put in 2.5BB and lose 2.5BB

Now I'm thinking that against the range I'm thinking he has, I think that not calling down may just be really, really bad. Of course the range here assumes that maybe I hit on the turn or river . . . if a blank falls on the turn, though, I'm 2:1 against. At which point I have to put in two bets to win 5.

Ugh. Capping preflop, then check/call or bet/call turn, check/fold river looks like it might be +EV.

By the way, I'm only 52.5 : 47.5 against the range I gave (he pops back with any ace, any broadway, any pair, and some random crap). Ugh. Maybe I should just check/fold KQo from now on.

[ QUOTE ]
Board: Jh 4d 2s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 41.4794 % 40.25% 01.23% { KQo }
Hand 2: 58.5206 % 57.29% 01.23% { 22+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, Q2s, J9s+, J6s, T9s, T4s, 98s, 75s, A2o+, K7o+, K3o, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o, 97o, 76o }

I figured he'd 3bet with any ace, any pocket, any broadway, and a few random crappy hands. I'm 40:60 after the flop; supposing that he bets the flop and turn with any two if I just check/call, and bets the river if he has a piece or an ace/bets it only half the time if he's behind to me:

40% of the time I put in 2.5BB to win ~6BB
60% of the time I put in 2.5BB and lose 2.5BB

Now I'm thinking that against the range I'm thinking he has, I think that not calling down may just be really, really bad. Of course the range here assumes that maybe I hit on the turn or river . . . if a blank falls on the turn, though, I'm 2:1 against. At which point I have to put in two bets to win 5.

Ugh. Capping preflop, then check/call or bet/call turn, check/fold river looks like it might be +EV.

By the way, I'm only 52.5 : 47.5 against the range I gave (he pops back with any ace, any broadway, any pair, and some random crap). Ugh. Maybe I should just check/fold KQo from now on.

[/ QUOTE ]
Looking at that a calldown seems good unless an ace comes on the turn. If it comes on the river I think the pot is too big.

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Board: Jh 4d 2s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 41.4794 % 40.25% 01.23% { KQo }
Hand 2: 58.5206 % 57.29% 01.23% { 22+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, Q2s, J9s+, J6s, T9s, T4s, 98s, 75s, A2o+, K7o+, K3o, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o, 97o, 76o }

I figured he'd 3bet with any ace, any pocket, any broadway, and a few random crappy hands. I'm 40:60 after the flop; supposing that he bets the flop and turn with any two if I just check/call, and bets the river if he has a piece or an ace/bets it only half the time if he's behind to me:

40% of the time I put in 2.5BB to win ~6BB
60% of the time I put in 2.5BB and lose 2.5BB

Now I'm thinking that against the range I'm thinking he has, I think that not calling down may just be really, really bad. Of course the range here assumes that maybe I hit on the turn or river . . . if a blank falls on the turn, though, I'm 2:1 against. At which point I have to put in two bets to win 5.

Ugh. Capping preflop, then check/call or bet/call turn, check/fold river looks like it might be +EV.

By the way, I'm only 52.5 : 47.5 against the range I gave (he pops back with any ace, any broadway, any pair, and some random crap). Ugh. Maybe I should just check/fold KQo from now on.

[/ QUOTE ]
Looking at that a calldown seems good unless an ace comes on the turn. If it comes on the river I think the pot is too big.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that's right, putting in 2 bets to win 5 means that calling on the turn makes sense. Yeah, from now on looks like if I cap preflop it's time to just call down. But I have to put some thought into just complete/calling in these situations, I wonder what we can get here by keeping the pot small preflop and playing jam-or-fold postflop. Given that our equity against this Laggy preflop raiser isn't actually nearly as good as I thought (like I said, probably no better than 55:45).

[Danenania]

Why is a turned Ace relevant?

[ QUOTE ]
Why is a turned Ace relevant?

[/ QUOTE ]
since so many of villains holdings contain an ace the equity change is so drastic it will probably warrant a fold.

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why is a turned Ace relevant?

[/ QUOTE ]
since so many of villains holdings contain an ace the equity change is so drastic it will probably warrant a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interestingly, not really. If an ace falls it's slightly less likely our opponent has one, plus we picked up four outs to the nuts.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why is a turned Ace relevant?

[/ QUOTE ]
since so many of villains holdings contain an ace the equity change is so drastic it will probably warrant a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interestingly, not really. If an ace falls it's slightly less likely our opponent has one, plus we picked up four outs to the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]
Are you sure about that? I havent run pstove on this hand but usually thats the case when an ace falls. I guess its a little different since we get that nut draw. I have only done analysis on small pps.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you sure about that? I havent run pstove on this hand but usually thats the case when an ace falls. I guess its a little different since we get that nut draw. I have only done analysis on small pps.

[/ QUOTE ]

I ran it on PStove and we still have the best hand 30% of the time an ace falls on the turn, not to mention our draw.

[MAxx]

Folding here as SOP seems highly exploitable and -EV. I think you have to call down a good % of the time.

[ QUOTE ]
id cap preflop but i would just peel this flop. 7:1 plus implied odds is enough to peel 6 outs that probably arent tainted with metagame considerations.. he may also check the turn giving you another card to look at.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding here as SOP seems highly exploitable and -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's only highly exploitable and -EV if you have KQ every time there's a J42 flop OOP against this guy. Next time you won't have KQ and he'll get punished.

C'mon guys...this metagame thing is soooooo over-rated.

[MAxx]

[ QUOTE ]
It's only highly exploitable and -EV if you have KQ every time there's a J42 flop OOP against this guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a showdownable hand and pretty close to near even money. I think you should be willing to showdown hands like these vs the right crew. My remarks were not directed to Meta, and I agree that sometimes we focus too much on Meta and we get tired of hearing about it. However, I think Meta is mos def a consideration when discussing BLIND WARS.

[oreogod]

yeah I dont really like folding a decent showdownable hand in these situations. Your effective odds basically put a call down at breakeven if u win 28-29 percent. With such a wide range, with odds of improvement...I think there is merit calling down more than some deem nessasary.

This also depends on opponent, obviously. If they are willing to fire all 3 bullets, or contiunation bet only to the turn...if they are willing to fold, what have I seen them do...etc. These situations are delicate.

On a side note. This situation came up pretty often today and a majority of the time my K or A-high was enough to win it (even Q-high)...but I almost always had the best hand, unfortunattly they caught their rivered six outers frequently.

The hand is showdownable against LAGgier types, I'll agree. But marginally showdownable. Calling down every single time, even against this guy, will cost money and be -EV. IMO, shania can't turn the (-) into a (+) here.

We may be close to even money in theory, but don't forget, this guy gets to choose when to put the bets in while we're OOP. Although we may be a coin toss from here on out, ANY discretion that this guy uses behind us will pull us further away from 50/50.

The correct application of metagame & positive EV here is to showdown UI some of the time. Doing it every time is a guaranteed loss.