A7s - judgement

BB is ridiculously loose. Something like 71/12/0.8. She clearly has a very low regard for money. Any pair looks good to her. Can I be raising this turn for value?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (14 SB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls, SB folds.

River: (13.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero folds, BB calls, UTG+1 folds.

Final Pot: 15.50 BB

[Fat Nicky]

Raising the turn is foolish. You need 5 or more players butting in the same amount as you for this raise to be for value. Even if the SB calls 2 cold and everyone else calls for one more big bet, a raise is breakeven at best.

Thanks. I'm glad I went with my instinct on this one then.
Also, I think my flop call might be incorrect...

[ QUOTE ]

Also, I think my flop call might be incorrect...

[/ QUOTE ]
It sure is. Not counting the A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, you have 2 outs to pair your ace (which may not be the best hand as someone could've made two pair or hold a better kicker, and even if it is, someone could easily draw out on you on the river). You're basically chasing a backdoor flush draw. That's expensive.

And I wouldn't be caught dead cold-calling with Axs. From the BB? Sure. This, however, is a surefire way to bleed money in the long run.

[Fat Nicky]

meh...if it's a mistake, it's a really small one. I don't mind it so much here since we are closing the action.

[ QUOTE ]
And I wouldn't be caught dead cold-calling with Axs. From the BB? Sure. This, however, is a surefire way to bleed money in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am pretty much guaranteed 6:1 or better on my money here, as there are already a lot of limpers.

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
And I wouldn't be caught dead cold-calling with Axs. From the BB? Sure. This, however, is a surefire way to bleed money in the long run.


[/ QUOTE ]

A) Hero called from the CO, not the CO, and he was correct to do so in a multiway pot.

B) not calling from the BB in similar circumstances is a huge mistake getting huge odds.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And I wouldn't be caught dead cold-calling with Axs. From the BB? Sure. This, however, is a surefire way to bleed money in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am pretty much guaranteed 6:1 or better on my money here, as there are already a lot of limpers.

[/ QUOTE ]
Playing ace-rag for top pair is, as you know, a very bad idea, so with two suited cards, the odds of me making a flush by the river are 15-to-1 (or 6.4%). Not good enough. I pass. As I wrote, from the BB this is a clear call, but not in the CO. Plus... what if someone three-bets?

[ QUOTE ]

B) not calling from the BB in similar circumstances is a huge mistake getting huge odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Come again? Isn't this exactly what I wrote?

[ QUOTE ]

A) Hero called from the CO, not the CO, and he was correct to do so in a multiway pot.


[/ QUOTE ]
Say what now?

Fat Nicky stated that I was correct to call in this multiway pot. I'm now wondering if is in fact correct. I'm more interested in the odds of flopping a flush draw than the odds of completing the flush by the river.

[ QUOTE ]
Fat Nicky stated that I was correct to call in this multiway pot. I'm now wondering if is in fact correct. I'm more interested in the odds of flopping a flush draw than the odds of completing the flush by the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
The odds of flopping a flush draw are 8.1-to-1 (or 10.9%).

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
meh...if it's a mistake, it's a really small one. I don't mind it so much here since we are closing the action.

[/ QUOTE ]

Getting like 20-1 closing the action, we can call here with basically any conceivable means of winning this hand. The backdoor nut-draw and an overcard that will very occassionally be good is probably good enough. As said, if it's a mistake, it's a tiny one.

[W. Deranged]

And, no, you shouldn't raise the turn, as your only reliable outs are the hearts and there are only three people who've entered the pot in front of you. Were it five and you weren't worried about getting three-jarred, raising might be good.

[einbert]

Hi Bubbles,

[ QUOTE ]
And I wouldn't be caught dead cold-calling with Axs. From the BB? Sure. This, however, is a surefire way to bleed money in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have a decent position in a very multiway pot, and a hand with good implied odds. In addition you are obviously playing against a lineup which is going to make multiple mistakes after the flop, and you are an awesome twoplustwoer with mad skilz for making and saving bets where even otherwise good TAGs will lose money.

I think folding this hand preflop would be pretty absurd.

In addition I think folding the flop would be a mistake. However I think folding preflop would be a more substantial mistake. This seems like pretty much an optimal situation for a coldcall with this hand.

Happy holidays,
einbert

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fat Nicky stated that I was correct to call in this multiway pot. I'm now wondering if is in fact correct. I'm more interested in the odds of flopping a flush draw than the odds of completing the flush by the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
The odds of flopping a flush draw are 8.1-to-1 (or 10.9%).

[/ QUOTE ]

Around the same as flopping a set. Should I be calling with all pocket pairs in this situation as well as Axs?

[einbert]

Hi TKO,

[ QUOTE ]
Around the same as flopping a set. Should I be calling with all pocket pairs in this situation as well as Axs?

[/ QUOTE ]

I certainly wouldn't fold any pocket pair in this situation before the flop.

Happy holidays,
einbert

[Fat Nicky]

it's been a long day. Seems like I completely misread your post.

[einbert]

Hi Bubbles,
[ QUOTE ]
Playing ace-rag for top pair is, as you know, a very bad idea, so with two suited cards, the odds of me making a flush by the river are 15-to-1 (or 6.4%). Not good enough. I pass. As I wrote, from the BB this is a clear call, but not in the CO. Plus... what if someone three-bets?

[/ QUOTE ]

The number you quote dealing with the amount of times we will make a flush by the river is totally irrelevant to the decision of whether to call or fold preflop. In addition, you are completely discounting the value of position, the postflop edge we have over these other players, and the excellent implied odds we have to make aces up, trips, or a flush. When one of those things happen we stand to make a lot of money, again due to our excellent position and the fact that $1/$2 players are generally quite poor postflop players.

Also, a flopped pair of aces will win this pot a fairly high percentage of the time. And because of our position, we will be able to save bets when behind and eek out a few extra bets when we are ahead when we flop exactly that--a pair of aces with no kicker. Sure sometimes we will face tricky decisions, but I feel that overall, all things considered, we are giving up way too much by folding this hand before the flop for two bets.

Good luck,
einbert

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Bubbles,

You have a decent position in a very multiway pot, and a hand with good implied odds. In addition you are obviously playing against a lineup which is going to make multiple mistakes after the flop, and you are an awesome twoplustwoer with mad skilz for making and saving bets where even otherwise good TAGs will lose money.

I think folding this hand preflop would be pretty absurd.

In addition I think folding the flop would be a mistake. However I think folding preflop would be a more substantial mistake. This seems like pretty much an optimal situation for a coldcall with this hand.

Happy holidays,
einbert

[/ QUOTE ]

"You are an awesome twoplustwoer with mad skilz for making and saving bets where even otherwise good TAGs will lose money."

Love that part. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Okay. Maybe it's just my extreme aversion towards cold-calling in general coupled with my extreme tightness... but I fold this. I can totally see where you're coming from, but personally, I can't turn this into a call unless I'm tilting.

Peace.

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe it's just my extreme aversion towards cold-calling in general

[/ QUOTE ]

I know exactly where you're coming from and suspected this when I read your first post. I started off supertight instead of superloose like most players. I'm going through that phase where I'm loosening up. I remember that general rule that I read somewhere that told me never to cold-call ever. However, I'm starting to learn that there are times that it is acceptable to do so, simply because it is better than any of your other options. I'm glad to have support that this is indeed one of those times.