Pokerprophecy World Series promotion

[45suited]

Let me first say that I HATE POKERPROPHECY AND THINK IT IS GARBAGE.

That being said, I was just made aware of the fact that they are having a promotion that would benefit some of us 2+2ers. Those in the top 50 ITMs on the internet with at least 500 games played (or more accurately, 500 games that they randomly datamined) under a username will be eligible for a tournament with the first prize being airfare and a seat in the '06 World Series.

The only catch of course is that you have to buy their product to be eligible for the tournament. (My plan is to wait until the 30th, see if I'm still ranked, then pay the $40 simply for the cheap shot at a seat in the WS.) They will take the top 50 (and down further the list to fill 50 spots if some in the top 50 do not join) as of December 31st, 2005 to fill the tournament.

I hate to come off as shilling for this junk product, but I'm sure that there are many screennames of 2+2ers in the top 50 that I do not recognize, otherwise I would simply PM the affected individuals to let them know of this opportunity.

[applejuicekid]

This doesn't seem like a good deal unless you were positive you would be in the top 50. You basically paying $40 to have a chance to play in a tourney with an EV of $200. It seems to me there are better ways to make $160 then supporting this trashy product.

[Nicholasp27]

if u know u are in top 50 (ie buy on the 31st of December), then it's very +ev

after all, it's 200 for a 40 investment, so 400% roi

if i played 500 and was top 50 on the 31st, i'd buy it in a heartbeat

putting ur hatred for the product aside, if party said that u could buy-in for $40 to a 50-person max (remember, not all 50 will even own the product or know about the tourney or make the tourney; prolly 20-30 max enter this tourney) for a wsop+airfare, etc then you'd jump at the opportunity

with airfare, hotel(?), etc the prize is closer to 1200ish, so that's more than 200 each...plus, again, all 50 will not be entering


edit: just saw that they'll keep going down the list to get the 50...so there will be 50 participants...now where it gets tricky is if u are ranked 51-100...u have legit shot at making the tourney if u buy the product, but not guaranteed...so u have to decide if your odds are >20%
that there won't be 50 above u entering

[applejuicekid]

I assume if you have a top 50 ITM% $200 is not very much compared to your hourly rate. To go through the effort of signing up for the site and playing the tourney doesn't seem worth it if it means supporting an unethical company. If you don't have any feelings about pokerprophecy I guess it makes sense.

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To go through the effort of signing up for the site and playing the tourney doesn't seem worth it if it means supporting an unethical company.

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Don't play poker.

[applejuicekid]

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To go through the effort of signing up for the site and playing the tourney doesn't seem worth it if it means supporting an unethical company.

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Don't play poker.

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?

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[Nicholasp27]

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I assume if you have a top 50 ITM% $200 is not very much compared to your hourly rate.

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several problems with this...


a) you can have a high itm, but be getting many 3rds, for a -roi (or slightly positive roi)

b) pokerprophecy doesn't capture all the games...variance in their sampling alone could mean that your 30% itm this month shows up at 50% itm in the games they happened to capture...so u may be running cold in poker and losing money, but still be a top 50 on their site

c) if u play 10s, then the money u make from this is still high compared to your hourly rate...if your rate in this tourney is $200 for 2-3 hours of play, can you play 100 10s getting $2/tourney in 2-3 hours? No


as for not mattering, that's like saying rb doesn't matter if u win 2k/month playing positive poker...u should still take the rb $$ because that's more money...why turn down free money?

if u get a $40 buyin to a 50person wsop tourney, then unless u are multitabling lots of high buyin sngs, it's worth your time to get that...again, if party poker offered it to u today, would u take it?


if your problem is with the company, then make that your argument and it's a valid one; after all, i wouldn't kill someone even for a 10000% roi...but ev-wise, if u know u will be in the top 50, then it's +ev to pay the $40 for the freeroll...and u shouldn't pass up +ev opps unless u can have a more +ev opp during the same time

[Nicholasp27]

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To go through the effort of signing up for the site and playing the tourney doesn't seem worth it if it means supporting an unethical company.

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Don't play poker.

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?

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i think he's saying that the poker sites are 'unethical companies' so if u have a prob with 'unethical companies' then u shouldn't play poker online

[skipperbob]

What about the problem with PartyP "freezing" your account(s) when they find out you're using PP?

[Nicholasp27]

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What about the problem with PartyP "freezing" your account(s) when they find out you're using PP?

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u wouldn't use pp...u'd pay the $40 and never install it...

[45suited]

I get the whole 'pokerprophecy sucks' thing. I think they are a joke as well, and I made that clear in my OP.

But let's say you were in their top 50. You're not 'supporting the company' by paying them $40 on December 30th. They WILL have 50 people in this tournament whether you decide to take a $40 shot for a 1-50 chance at a prize worth over $10,000. Somebody WILL be 'promoting' their company by wearing their stupid hat or shirt at the WS.

Their product is crap, but it's not like they're selling children on the black market. If they told me today that they'd pay my entry into the WS if I wore their merchandise, I'd accept in a heartbeat. I'd get over the shame of wearing their stuff by spending part of the $10,000 I was saving on the finest strippers in Vegas. I suspect that others would as well. The purpose of my post was not to support pokerprophecy, but rather to let my fellow 2+2ers know to check the top 50 at the end of December and only then should they consider paying $40 for the entry fee.

[Nicholasp27]

also, if u figure they MAY run this promotion in the future, that $40 may get u free into other months' tournies as well...so if u pay $40 for getting top 50 this month and then get top 50 again in January, then u only paid $20 a piece...

so gotta add some ev for that

[applejuicekid]

I'm sorry I have not made my argument clear. Obviously if Party Poker offered that tournament I would play it and play it often. My argument was with my dislike of the company. However, they could offer a deal that would get me to sign up. For example, if they gave every new $40 membership a big screen tv I would look past the company's shortcomings and sign up. This is common sense and was no need for me to post about it. The only reason I did was to point out that you are not gaining that much (I guess it could be argued whether $200 is a lot). In my mind a 50 person freeroll to WSOP seat sounds like more than $200.

Yeah it is a good deal, but I don't think it is a good enough offer for someone who dislikes pokerprophey to do it. And it is not exactly like Party offering this tournament. You have to send your $40 in advance, stay in the top 50, register for membership (I doubt it is that hard but...), support a company you despise, and keep a set block of time open. I don't think there was ever a point in my poker career where all that would have been worth $160.

But yeah I guess it is a +EV move...

However,

"...and u shouldn't pass up +ev opps unless u can have a more +ev opp during the same time"

is clearly not true. There are many reasons to pass +EV opportunites. As you mentionned ethical implications could overshadow any EV gained. I guess in my opinion this is the case here. Now let's say it was top 10 instead of top 50 then I would definitely not pass up this offer.

[Nicholasp27]

that statement was after i mentioned the ethics...saying all things equal, considering poker instead

but yeah, i support your decision to not support a company u dislike...after all, if u won the tourney and had to wear a prophecy hat to the tourney, how would u feel about the prize then?...

[Degen]

i had no idea they were making that much money, wow

[applejuicekid]

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i had no idea they were making that much money, wow

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I just thought of this too. Wow indeed.

[45suited]

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i had no idea they were making that much money, wow

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what do you mean?

[Bluff Daddy]

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i had no idea they were making that much money, wow

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what do you mean?

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Them making enough money to be giving a away a free wsop seat. Back when they were spamming the tables all the time there would be atleast a couple of people at almost every table (22's) talking about their stats and everybody elses so who knows how many people payed for it

[applejuicekid]

I took it to mean that they are making enough money to give away a WSOP seat as a promotion. I didn't think they were doing that well either.

[playtitleist]

$40*500= $20000.

WSOP + Airfare = $11000

Net = $9000 + $40(x) - advertising costs

x = units sold from this promotion - 500

B/E = $11000/40 = 275 units sold.

So, with the free advertisement they are getting with this thread and whatever other advertisement they are making likely being marginal in cost, this is a no brainer for them.

whats the deal with this software.. Is it legal on these sites? why do you guys hate it so much.. Just because of the price.??

[Degen]

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i had no idea they were making that much money, wow

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what do you mean?

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Them making enough money to be giving a away a free wsop seat. Back when they were spamming the tables all the time there would be atleast a couple of people at almost every table (22's) talking about their stats and everybody elses so who knows how many people payed for it

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I just always thought of them as a small time operation run out of some dudes apartment. Everytime I emailed them the owner got back to me same day and it just seemed very low budget. I guess I underestimated them...