Free-Raising weak opponents.

This post is about a hand that happened to me which I guess is quite a regular occurence, however in this topic I would like to discuss soemthing that I have thought about for a while.

Our read on BB is that he is a weak player but can recognise that our preflop raise may have not hit this board and that we can be pushed off the pot making an incorrect fold when he will routinely bet flop / bet turn with nothing, or c/r flop and bet turn. He is also capable of betting the flop with a weak draw hoping that his fold equity makes up for the negative equity edge.

Prima Poker (6 handed) 2/4

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A /images/graemlins/heart.gif, J /images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds Hero raises, 3 folds, BB calls.

Flop: 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif(2 players)
BB bets, Hero ...

Following taken from :
Clarkmeister - 5 things LL players should "unlearn" (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=321233&page=&view=&sb=5&o =&fpart=all&vc=1)

1. Raising for a free card.

The most overused play in LL holdem. Its rarely going to be correct to take the free card, and you’ll rarely get it anyways. More often you will get 3-bet or, if no flush card comes, you will get bet into on the turn anyways. In addition, you will frequently cost yourself a raise on the turn or river when you hit. Unless you are in a situation where you have a ton of opponents and are "capping for value", its more often going to be correct (especially with small flush draws) to eschew the free card raise and play it straight up.

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This makes sense for draws that have no value but I disagree in the above hand. Where they will bet into you on the turn when you have made your flush if you don't raise the flop then I can agree. This situation however is different as he may hold a small pair or be betting a straight draw figuring he has fold equity on this low board (perhaps not here but if a low falls again on the turn and he continuation bets).

We have 11.5 outs here, perhaps not all clean (we can lose a couple for the overs perhaps). We may also already have the best hand and unlike a flush situation our player may not bet an ace turn (unless he has made his straight) and may not even bet a face card turn. This means we lose the value on the turn when we make our pair and he doesn't bet.

I am just wondering what is the concensus here on this board about the following decisions :

1) do we call here, and play it out legitimately.
2) do we raise here and bet the turn if checked to (trying to represent an overpair.
3) do we raise here and check behind on an unimproved turn.

Thanks in advance for your consideration of this topic and for the time taken to reply.

True

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
Our read on BB is that he is a weak player but can recognise that our preflop raise may have not hit this board and that we can be pushed off the pot making an incorrect fold when he will routinely bet flop / bet turn with nothing, or c/r flop and bet turn. He is also capable of betting the flop with a weak draw hoping that his fold equity makes up for the negative equity edge.


[/ QUOTE ]
These thoughts do not seem characteristic of a weak player.

FWIW - The line I'd take on this hand would be to call the flop and raise the turn with the intention of those 2 turn BBs being the last of my money that goes into the pot UI.

[ QUOTE ]

These thoughts do not seem characteristic of a weak player.

FWIW - The line I'd take on this hand would be to call the flop and raise the turn with the intention of those 2 turn BBs being the last of my money that goes into the pot UI.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this a bluff based on the tendancies of the described opponent? What if the opponent was weak/semi-aggro/calling would you then take any of the lines that I mentioned?

If we have 11.5 outs here against a pair that doesn't share a kicker we have approximately 39% chance to win this pot by the river and approximatley 41% chance to improve our hand by the next card. 20% chance to hit a pair or our gutshot by the turn.

You would raise any unimproved turn with 20% chance to win by the river? Is there that much fold equity in a board like this to compensate for this, and what happens when our opponent has an even better hand than we anticipated?

Could you explain why you would take the line you stated? Is it solely because this is the best way to represent a higher pair and win the pot? Do you play all your overpairs like this and would this be the manner in which your opponent would best perceive this?

If we raise the flop, we put 1bb into a 2.75bb pot, our opponent gets 7.5:1 on his call. We are now getting 3.25 : 1 and have 40% to improve. If we check behind on the turn and our opponent bets into us when we improve then we can call / raise and receive 2 more bbs on this manoeuver, approximately 5.25:1.

[thejameser]

i raise the flop, the same way i play 77-AA. HU with position, with outs. you said he may be making a play, no? play back. by weak do you mean semi-thinking weak-tight? weak-tight is more of a reason to raise. the more straightforward the easier to play against.

[sean c]

Your giving this donk bet way to much respect. I am raising the flop because i think there is a strong chance you still have the best hand.

[ QUOTE ]
We have 11.5 outs here, perhaps not all clean (we can lose a couple for the overs perhaps).

[/ QUOTE ]

For starters, I think you're being too generous with counting 11.5 outs. You said it yourself, you lose a couple with the overs. I'd say you have 1.5 for each overcard, 1.5 for your backdoor flush, and maybe 2-3 for any 4 giving you a baby straight (it also might give someone else a straight).

That's at best, 7.5 outs, which may or may not change your line.

How can you lose at least 4 outs against one opponent?

[thejameser]

for one he could have A5, A2, or some such hand that has your ace reverse dominated. i would actually prefer to hit a J here than an ace. i never count top pair outs as full outs as top pair does not always hold up, even HU. i think pair of elevens is closer to the actual wins than your estimation. i would discount the A more than the J.

How can I be reverse dominated with both of my card but also lose outs for the straight....

The worst possible situation would leave me with 6.5 outs, and that is when he has A-x where x-pairs the board.

This means at worst I lose 5 outs, on average it is far less than this.

[ QUOTE ]
How can you lose at least 4 outs against one opponent?

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Overcards alone is where you lose outs. Top pair doesn't always mean best hand. Therefore, you have to discount your full outs to about a half out. So, instead of each of the As giving you an out, they are about a half out each.

EDIT: Not to mention an A or 4 could give him straight as well. A split pot takes away outs, too.

Take a look at SSHE's counting outs chapter.

[akishore]

[ QUOTE ]
For starters, I think you're being too generous with counting 11.5 outs. You said it yourself, you lose a couple with the overs. I'd say you have 1.5 for each overcard, 1.5 for your backdoor flush, and maybe 2-3 for any 4 giving you a baby straight (it also might give someone else a straight).

That's at best, 7.5 outs, which may or may not change your line.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is really wrong. This is a heads-up pot for crying out loud, not four-way or five-way. How can you lose outs for BOTH your overs against one opponent as high as 50% of the time?? Then at the same time, you're losing outs for your straight so that you are up against 6x or Ax while at the same time being reverse dominated???

That means you're saying your opponent has exactly A-x or J-x where the x is a pair, but then card frequency says you only lose 1 out for the straight. If you lose more for the straight (i.e. he can have 6-x), then you gain more for your overcards.

The worst realistic case is being up against A5. Here, you lose 3 ace outs and 2 straight outs. That's 5 outs lost for a total of 6.5. But to assume you're this weak the majority of the time (what is needed to get an average estimated outs of 7.5, which is what you got), is extremely weak/tight thinking.

To the OP, I think your question is best answered with an elindauer triple. I think raise/call/fold should be something like {60, 40, 0} or maybe {75, 25, 0}.

Aseem

[ QUOTE ]
This is really wrong. This is a heads-up pot for crying out loud, not four-way or five-way. How can you lose outs for BOTH your overs against one opponent as high as 50% of the time??

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Try rereading SSHE and then come back to me.

I have read SSHE twice and HEFAP...

What is your opponents hand range?

From what I would guess it would be :

2-x, 3-x, 4-,x 5-,x and perhaps even 6-x aswell as all the times that he is bluffing. He may also have A-x aswell and the possibility of any pair. Your A outs and J outs are only bad when he has a hand better than a pair and has exactly A-x or J-x that makes two pair.

When he bets out your overcards are good better than 50% of the time for sure. I would only discount 10% for the J, and perhaps 20% for the A (this includes when he makes the straight or has A-x that paired). I think you lose perhaps one full out maximum on the straight.

I would call this .9 lost for overcards and 1 for the straight. I think you can't really lose more than 2 outs for the legitimacy of your hand when you make it and he beats it as he just won't come out betting that often with a large hand like a set or a made straight or even 2 pair.

I think the maximum outs you can discount for this hand is four at the very worst. I was just stating the amount of outs we had when I said 11.5, I wasn't labelling the amount of clean outs.

What do others think?

Anyone else have any thoughts?