Overpair in position (I don't play full ring) [Archive]

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Evan

12-02-2005, 07:32 AM

I have probably played ~5k hands of full ring games (any more than 6 handed) in the last year. I basically only do it when short games fill up and they're still very good, and even then I don't like it.

Cognitively I am confident my line is right, but instincually it feels like I need to be putting in more bets somewhere. I think that's wrong, though.

Villain is 68.3/12.2

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, 3 folds, UTG+1 caps, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.66 SB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.83 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero calls.

River: (7.83 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.83 BB

So yea, do your thing. Go for all streets I suppose, though hopefully we can agree I played preflop like a champ.

bakku

12-02-2005, 07:35 AM

fine

hobbsmann

12-02-2005, 07:38 AM

maybe raise the river? I agree with you that some more bets should probably go in against this monkey, but anything more than 1 or 2 more probably means you are behind. Yeah I think raising the river is probably best, calling a 3-bet of course.

private joker

12-02-2005, 08:42 AM

My default line is to raise the flop and call down if 3-bet. I doubt he's bet/folding the flop, and if he check/folds the turn, I'm fine with that.

gh9801

12-02-2005, 08:49 AM

I think this is fine. What's his post-flop AF? If it's high I'd raise the river or the turn, if it's low I'd just call down

sweetjazz

12-02-2005, 10:50 AM

Heh, this reminds me of a hand I played in a live game. Preflop was the same, with the villain probably having similar stats (probably a lower PFR though).

I called his flop bet on a board of 854, called his turn bet when a 6 hit, and then checked behind his cursing check when the river came a 7. He had AA.

Depending on reads, I think your line can be a good one. Some people don't cap without a big pair. That said, that phenomenon isn't uncommon live, but it's not something you're likely to see in an online 15/30 game. So I think your default play should include an extra raise somewhere.

Where? I think I prefer raising the turn or the river. This gets an extra small bet in when ahead, and is less likely to be raised by AA or KK. Additionally, you no longer need to raise if an A hits.

A final thought: if villain will bet all three streets with AK, but isn't going to call the final river bet when we raise at some point, the call down line seems best.

thejameser

12-02-2005, 10:52 AM

his postflop AF would be somewhat helpful. i don't think this is bad at all. you may have missed a bet, but you sure did not put yourself in a position where you would want to/have to fold to a 3bet, which i could not do here.

12-02-2005, 10:59 AM

I would raise the river. Some villains might be less inclined to 3-bet with KK or AA when they see a possible str8 on the table.

BigEndian

12-02-2005, 11:10 AM

I think you missed a raise on a street. Your choice which one.

- Jim

Entity

12-02-2005, 11:46 AM

Your stats are missing postflop aggression. That's pretty important. From what I can remember 68/12 is pretty aggressive, so I'd usually find a flop raise.

Rob

SippinSoma

12-02-2005, 01:46 PM

If there's any chance LAG would remember this hand in the future, I like your line best. I can think of a couple other lines, but there's little difference b/w which one you take.

DcifrThs

12-02-2005, 01:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If there's any chance LAG would remember this hand in the future, I like your line best. I can think of a couple other lines, but there's little difference b/w which one you take.

[/ QUOTE ]

hte value you give up by not raising is not worth the value of the lag remembering.

raise flop or turn.

Barron

DeathDonkey

12-02-2005, 02:11 PM

I agree with those who want to raise flop. Mostly because if I get 3 bet there I don't mind it nearly as much as if I get 3 bet on one of the big streets. Unless the guy is quite LAGgy postflop too then its a brand new ballgame and I'd want to see like 5 bb go in.

-DeathDonkey

lil feller

12-02-2005, 02:41 PM

Even a 12.2 PFR percantage probably isn't capping all that light. I still like a flop raise however, and then re-evaluate if he 3 bets or you get c/r on the turn.

Given the way you played, and the river card, I raise the river and call a 3bet. Its not unbelievable for you to have 55 in this spot, and while I don't think the villian would muck AA or KK if he had them, I don't think he's going to 3bet the river with them. He might not even 3bet if he lucked out and caught an 8. And, as I type all of this it makes me wonder why i'd call the 3bet, but I would. I'd hate for him to get crazy with TT and muck a winner here.

lf

Evan

12-02-2005, 05:22 PM

What do you guys think he caps with preflop? Does he always cap JJ? AK? Even AKs?

I think my PFR was about 12 when I stopped playing full. I don't think I'd cap AK or in his spot. Obviously his vpip indicated taht he's not very good, but as far as raising he seems to be on track.

Fwiw:

Code:<hr /><pre>
Board: 6s 4c 2h 7s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 43.6759 % [ 00.42 00.02 ] { QsQh }
Hand 2: 56.3241 % [ 00.54 00.02 ] { AA-JJ, AKs } </pre><hr />

Code:<hr /><pre>
Board: 6s 4c 2h 7s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 58.3117 % [ 00.57 00.01 ] { QsQh }
Hand 2: 41.6883 % [ 00.40 00.01 ] { AA-JJ, AKs, AKo } </pre><hr />

Code:<hr /><pre>
Board: 6s 4c 2h 7s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 25.4011 % [ 00.22 00.03 ] { QsQh }
Hand 2: 74.5989 % [ 00.72 00.03 ] { AA-QQ, AKs } </pre><hr />

This is if he caps JJ and AKo 50% of the time.
Code:<hr /><pre>
Board: 6s 4c 2h 7s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 47.5524 % [ 00.46 00.02 ] { QsQh }
Hand 2: 52.4476 % [ 00.51 00.02 ] { AA---QQ--, AKs, AKo }</pre><hr />

Evan

12-02-2005, 05:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Your stats are missing postflop aggression.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't like using aggression numbers. I think it's the most misleading stat in the world and I don't have any idea how many hands I need before I can trust it.