extracting value from strong draws [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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c_strong

12-02-2005, 06:36 AM

Reads: the SB had just sat down, the UTG and Button seemed fairly loose passive.

I generally like to bet and raise strong draws on the flop to win the pot if possible, maybe get a free card on the turn and disguise my hand if I hit. Given the pot size and my hand strength, is it better to just call and try to milk it?

PokerRoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG ($24.55)
MP ($42.70)
Button ($49.55)
SB ($49.50)
BB (Hero) ($58.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K /images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls $0.50, 1 fold, Button calls $0.50, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($1.50) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
SB bets $1.5, Hero?

c_strong

12-02-2005, 12:59 PM

bump. I'd be really interested in any comments, as I'm uncertain how best to play this sort of hand.

beavens

12-02-2005, 01:13 PM

i'd like a raise to the new pot size - juice up the pot since he's probably on a draw as well.

although an argument could be made just to call, because if you both his the draw then all the money will be in the middle anyways.

12-02-2005, 01:45 PM

At small stakes, where no one is laying down TPTK, I don't think you have much fold equity here. I call hoping to get callers behind and hit my draw cheap.

c_strong

12-02-2005, 02:38 PM

Thanks for the replies. I raised to $5 and everyone folded. I've been kicking myself, but I guess a lot of the time this play works OK, and I can't be too upset at winning the pot given that I had K high and only one nut out /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Leptyne

12-02-2005, 02:39 PM

I think the definition of a draw is you don't have a hand, but you hope to get one. Your draw may be strong or weak depending on the number of outs.

In the example you give I see a made str8 on the flop with a flush draw. So you want to draw to the second nut str8?

You're also on a second nut flush draw.

What else? Oh yes, you're facing a pot-sized bet.

What else? Oh yes, two players left to act behind you.

What else? Oh yes, you think if you make an OOP raise in the BB that when you check the turn everyone behind you will check because your powerful flop raise scared them into giving you a free card.

What else? Oh yes, should you just call and "try to milk it"? That's a new thought. IF you hit anything your second nut hand will be milking something?

Jeeeezzzz!

swolfe

12-02-2005, 02:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the replies. I raised to $5 and everyone folded. I've been kicking myself, but I guess a lot of the time this play works OK, and I can't be too upset at winning the pot given that I had K high and only one nut out /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

this is the best possible outcome. the highest EV scenario is where everyone folds.

12-02-2005, 02:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
. Given the pot size and my hand strength, is it better to just call and try to milk it?

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, it's not miliking if you do not have the best hand. All your on is a draw. Obviously some are stronger then others, but i would start building the pot here. Especially because SB is OOP he's probably going to have to have a very strong holding in order to take alot of pressure from you.

bkholdem

12-02-2005, 02:52 PM

Maybe I suck but I like putting in a nice raise on the flop. Taking it down there is fine with me. The problem with drawing cheaply on such a draw heavy board is that when you hit your hand is so obvious no one wants to call a bet so at least you have gotten them to put money in on the flop. Agression is good.

Are people telling me that wnen the 4th straight card hits or the flush card hits, and the player who flat called the flop bet now raises...others are going to call there with worse hands???

FreakDaddy

12-02-2005, 02:56 PM

I bump this to $5 on the flop. If we assume your flush draw is indeed good if you connect, and your straight will likely be good, then you have ~58% equity in the hand, if we count the K as 1 out too. It's a draw heavy flop and if I get any calls from behind me, then even if I connect on the turn, I proceed with a LOT of caution. If I'm re-raised by villian, I don't mind a push here either. He could easily have two pair, in which we're a coin flop. The only thing I'm really worried about here is a set or a made straight. Yet so many people at this level slooooowplay their strong made hands, even on draw heavy flops, that I wouldn't be too worried about this.

As it is you want to raise and isolate as this bet could mean anything from a weak hand like a 8x to a complete bluff. You are on a semi-bluff and taking down the pot without completing your hand isn't bad, while building the pot where you're likely the favorite is the goal of profitable poker. If the field folds and SB just calls, you're likely getting the free turn.

c_strong

12-02-2005, 03:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think the definition of a draw is you don't have a hand, but you hope to get one. Your draw may be strong or weak depending on the number of outs.

In the example you give I see a made str8 on the flop with a flush draw. So you want to draw to the second nut str8?

[/ QUOTE ]
How often am I up against specifically T9 here?

[ QUOTE ]
You're also on a second nut flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

How often am I up against A /images/graemlins/spade.gifx /images/graemlins/spade.gif as against some other flush draw?

[ QUOTE ]
What else? Oh yes, you're facing a pot-sized bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, but won't I be ahead of most hands that make a pot-sized bet if I hit? Are you suggesting I fold?

[ QUOTE ]
What else? Oh yes, two players left to act behind you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough...

[ QUOTE ]

What else? Oh yes, you think if you make an OOP raise in the BB that when you check the turn everyone behind you will check because your powerful flop raise scared them into giving you a free card.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I think I will fold out pf limpers and buy the button. And yes, I think the SB may well check the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
What else? Oh yes, should you just call and "try to milk it"? That's a new thought. IF you hit anything your second nut hand will be milking something?

Jeeeezzzz!

[/ QUOTE ]

That wasn't expressed very well. What I meant was to allow more callers into the pot with say middle or bottom pair or overcards (hopefully not J9) who may call down if I hit my straight or flush by the river, which I'm a favourite to do.

c_strong

12-02-2005, 03:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the replies. I raised to $5 and everyone folded. I've been kicking myself, but I guess a lot of the time this play works OK, and I can't be too upset at winning the pot given that I had K high and only one nut out /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

this is the best possible outcome. the highest EV scenario is where everyone folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume you mean for this particular situation? Surely that can't always be right as a matter of principle? If everyone folds you can only win the existing pot, but other plays may make more money overall even taking account of the times you lose. I agree you have 0 chance of losing if everyone folds, but that isn't what I understand by EV.

swolfe

12-02-2005, 03:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I assume you mean for this particular situation? Surely that can't always be right as a matter of principle? If everyone folds you can only win the existing pot, but other plays may make more money overall even taking account of the times you lose. I agree you have 0 chance of losing if everyone folds, but that isn't what I understand by EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

pot is $1.50, facing a $1.5 bet. you raise all fold, you net +$3

if you raise to $5 and SB calls, the pot is $11.50. let's say your equity is 50%, then your equity is $5.75 and your expectation is to net out +$.75. this doesn't include any other money that you may have to put in on later streets.

when you raise with a coin flip, you pretty much always want people to fold.

DoomSlice

12-02-2005, 03:32 PM

It is my opinion that most of the value from strong draws comes from fold equity. Pump that flop.

Leptyne

12-02-2005, 03:48 PM

You are correct that you will hit one of your draws 60% of the time. I guess I'm giving the $50 NL players more credit than they deserve. I make this same play at $50 and also at $100 NL, although I try to use it more selectively at $100.

Good players (of which there ar few at this level) see this as a semi-bluff, a raise to isolate the SB, and thus get a free card. If I'm in the SB I'm on a draw with AsJs and will semi-bluff re-raise.

I think we're pretty much in agreement except for the phrase of "milking". If I'm playing this hand slowly I'm looking for somebody's stack. I'm looking for you to hit a str8 when I hit the flush. In this game I might consider that I have the best hand if I catch a random K. It's always nice to win an uncontested pot of any amount.

bkholdem

12-02-2005, 04:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You are correct that you will hit one of your draws 60% of the time. I guess I'm giving the $50 NL players more credit than they deserve. I make this same play at $50 and also at $100 NL, although I try to use it more selectively at $100.

Good players (of which there ar few at this level) see this as a semi-bluff, a raise to isolate the SB, and thus get a free card. If I'm in the SB I'm on a draw with AsJs and will semi-bluff re-raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then I guess you don't think a set is possible, or 2 pair, for example. Why would those hands just flat call the sb's flop bet? If you were small blind i think that you put hero on too narrow a range of hands by putting him on a draw only.

Leptyne

12-02-2005, 05:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You are correct that you will hit one of your draws 60% of the time. I guess I'm giving the $50 NL players more credit than they deserve. I make this same play at $50 and also at $100 NL, although I try to use it more selectively at $100.

Good players (of which there ar few at this level) see this as a semi-bluff, a raise to isolate the SB, and thus get a free card. If I'm in the SB I'm on a draw with AsJs and will semi-bluff re-raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then I guess you don't think a set is possible, or 2 pair, for example. Why would those hands just flat call the sb's flop bet? If you were small blind i think that you put hero on too narrow a range of hands by putting him on a draw only.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually I'm not sure what I would do in the SB. My first reaction would be that the player is representing a hand not a draw. Then I'd probably overanalyze it and see a semi-bluff raise to isolate. Since I rarely encounter this kind of sophisticated play at $50 NL I have to fight the tendency to see things that aren't there.

However I did lead the flop from the SB into a made str8 with 3 players left to act. Perhaps I do have something and am looking for a raise. When I lead the flop I'm prepared to play poker.

Moozh

12-02-2005, 06:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
At small stakes, where no one is laying down TPTK, I don't think you have much fold equity here. I call hoping to get callers behind and hit my draw cheap.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get it. Do you guys realize he has an open-ended straight flush draw with at least one clean overcard?

You are a huge favorite over a pair here.

A few hand comparisons:

K/images/graemlins/spade.gif9/images/graemlins/spade.gif vs A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif8/images/graemlins/club.gif 68% to win
K/images/graemlins/spade.gif9/images/graemlins/spade.gif vs J/images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ/images/graemlins/club.gif 62% to win
K/images/graemlins/spade.gif9/images/graemlins/spade.gif vs A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifA/images/graemlins/club.gif 55% to win
K/images/graemlins/spade.gif9/images/graemlins/spade.gif vs 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif8/images/graemlins/club.gif 54% to win
K/images/graemlins/spade.gif9/images/graemlins/spade.gif vs 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif7/images/graemlins/club.gif 50% to win
K/images/graemlins/spade.gif9/images/graemlins/spade.gif vs T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif9/images/graemlins/club.gif 40% to win

What about multiway?
vs JJ and AA 55% to win
vs AA and 87 49% to win
vs JJ and T9 40% to win!

That's a huge overlay. Stop thinking about who would win on the flop, it's a 7 card game. Raise it up sure, but do it for value.

Moozh

12-02-2005, 06:33 PM

There is a lot of wrong thinking in this thread.

[ QUOTE ]
At small stakes, where no one is laying down TPTK, I don't think you have much fold equity here. I call hoping to get callers behind and hit my draw cheap.

[/ QUOTE ]
No, you want someone to call you here. If they folded, you would lose expected value. You have the better hand.

[ QUOTE ]
this is the best possible outcome. the highest EV scenario is where everyone folds.

[/ QUOTE ]
No! You have a huge equity edge over every hand but a made straight, a set, or the nut flush draw! You're even a favorite over top two-pair right now. The more money you get in the pot here, the more money you make. You stand to win a vast majority of the time here with this hand.

[ QUOTE ]
First of all, it's not miliking if you do not have the best hand. All your on is a draw.

[/ QUOTE ]
This draw is so strong, it's better than any made hand but a made straight, set, or nut flush draw. So what if he only had king high right now? His hand is the favorite to win the most money. Play it that way.

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe I suck but I like putting in a nice raise on the flop. Taking it down there is fine with me.

[/ QUOTE ]
No! You don't want to take it down. You want callers. If your hand is favored to win, then you make money when people put chips in the pot with a worse hand. Your hand is favored to win so you want people to call.

[ QUOTE ]
It is my opinion that most of the value from strong draws comes from fold equity.

[/ QUOTE ]
If your draw is heads up and less than 50% to come in then you need folding equity to make it profitable. If your draw makes you a likely statistical favorite to win the hand then you don't want them to fold.

----

Ok, enough bitching from me. There was good analysis here too. FreakDaddy's post was very solid imho. You don't want to end up against a set or the nut flush draw. Still, your hand is so strong and so well disguised on the flop, it would kill me to play scared here.

FreakDaddy

12-02-2005, 06:36 PM

Answer: No, they don't get it. I've explained this concept several times on here though (along with others).

c_strong

12-02-2005, 08:02 PM

Wow, thanks guys for all the input. A lot of food for thought there.

poincaraux

12-02-2005, 08:11 PM

Ha! I read the post and the first replies and was about to post the *exact* same hands for comparison. A couple of other things: if he has A/images/graemlins/spade.gif8/images/graemlins/club.gif you're still 65%. If a blank falls on the turn (yeah, I know .. it's hard to pick a card that really looks like a blank to the villain), you're still close to 50% against TPTK-type hands.

Calculating the equities in a few hands like this changed my game significantly. Hopefully for the better /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

12-02-2005, 08:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
when you raise with a coin flip, you pretty much always want people to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is a pretty simple, yet important point about NL Hold Em that many players either don't understand or recognize.

12-02-2005, 08:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I generally like to bet and raise strong draws on the flop to win the pot if possible, maybe get a free card on the turn and disguise my hand if I hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

IMHO this gives your hand away a lot of the time and makes it difficult to get paid off when you hit.

Moozh

12-02-2005, 09:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
when you raise with a coin flip, you pretty much always want people to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is a pretty simple, yet important point about NL Hold Em that many players either don't understand or recognize.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that if you're in a 50/50 situation, you want your opponent to fold. With the extra overlay the pot is laying your opponent, it would be corret for him to call any bet from you. Since it would be correct for him to call, you stand to win less money if he does. Thus, you want a fold.

In this situation, I do not see how it can be considered a coinflip so easily. There is a vast hand range out there that you are beating soundly. On the flop you are likely ahead and at worst only very slightly behind. That is a very profitable situation for you.

FreakDaddy

12-02-2005, 09:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I generally like to bet and raise strong draws on the flop to win the pot if possible, maybe get a free card on the turn and disguise my hand if I hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

IMHO this gives your hand away a lot of the time and makes it difficult to get paid off when you hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actualy it's quite the opposite. Think about it. Let me know what you come up with.

bkholdem

12-02-2005, 10:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I generally like to bet and raise strong draws on the flop to win the pot if possible, maybe get a free card on the turn and disguise my hand if I hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

IMHO this gives your hand away a lot of the time and makes it difficult to get paid off when you hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actualy it's quite the opposite. Think about it. Let me know what you come up with.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was under the impression that people didn't defend their positions with reasonded arguments when they are challenged in this forum. I thought they just didn't reply, backpeddled, or simply changed their position without ever admitting they may have been mistaken. Can't wait for mid stakes..

12-02-2005, 10:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I generally like to bet and raise strong draws on the flop to win the pot if possible, maybe get a free card on the turn and disguise my hand if I hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

IMHO this gives your hand away a lot of the time and makes it difficult to get paid off when you hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actualy it's quite the opposite. Think about it. Let me know what you come up with.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was under the impression that people didn't defend their positions with reasonded arguments when they are challenged in this forum. I thought they just didn't reply, backpeddled, or simply changed their position without ever admitting they may have been mistaken. Can't wait for mid stakes..

[/ QUOTE ]

BK-

I am really tired, just got back from AC--working on no sleep since Wednesday I guess--so I am not sure if you are referring to me or not.

Freak Daddy-

I don't know who you think you are to make such a post. If you think I am wrong, why don't you elaborate on why. That way, we can get a discussion going and hopefully the both of us and the rest of the posters in this forum can learn something.

Seriously, "think about it" and "let me know what you come up with"--give me a break.

bkholdem

12-03-2005, 08:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I generally like to bet and raise strong draws on the flop to win the pot if possible, maybe get a free card on the turn and disguise my hand if I hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

IMHO this gives your hand away a lot of the time and makes it difficult to get paid off when you hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actualy it's quite the opposite. Think about it. Let me know what you come up with.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was under the impression that people didn't defend their positions with reasonded arguments when they are challenged in this forum. I thought they just didn't reply, backpeddled, or simply changed their position without ever admitting they may have been mistaken. Can't wait for mid stakes..

[/ QUOTE ]

BK-

I am really tired, just got back from AC--working on no sleep since Wednesday I guess--so I am not sure if you are referring to me or not.

Freak Daddy-

I don't know who you think you are to make such a post. If you think I am wrong, why don't you elaborate on why. That way, we can get a discussion going and hopefully the both of us and the rest of the posters in this forum can learn something.

Seriously, "think about it" and "let me know what you come up with"--give me a break.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you raise strong on the flop you could have a good hand, a strong hand, a draw, or a strong draw. So when the draw hits and you continue to play strong your opponent doesn't know if you are continuing to play strong because you hit your draw so your hand improved, or you are continuing to play strong because you have the same hand you had before and still think it is good/or are now scared of draws completing.

If you just call the flop and get two callers behind you, then the flush card falls and you all of a sudden come to life rather than checking becasue you are afraid of the flush like the other players plan to do everyone is more likely to put you on the flush.

So you make my decisions much easier when you check/call with your draws and bet/raise with your made hands. Might as well play with your cards face up at that point.

So the way freakdaddy plays it, raising the flop, he could force a better flush draw to fold behind him. He could also force the same straight draw to fold behind him. By flat calling the flop Ax flush draw is for sure calling behind you Ness. Then when you hit your flush and raise the turn and someone calls what do you do then?

Or-

If the table is playing loose and I have a small flush draw and decide to call freak daddys raise on the flop because I think there will be multi way action and the flush card hits on the turn... Freak daddy bets and now I raise with my flush, I can't give him credit with the flush when it hits and I want anyone who happens to have a higher flush redraw to have to pay to see the river so I raise. Freak daddy gets that extra bet out of me. And he may get more out of me on the river if I don't know anything about how he plays.

The way you play it Ness...
I have a small flush draw so of course I call behind on the flop after you flat call. Then the flush card falls on the turn. 1st player checks because he is afraid that the flush just hit in the multiway pot. Now you bet rather than checking... jee I wonder what you have? Guess my small flush is no good.. Or maybe I just hit a higher flush and raise you. Now do you push?

bkholdem

12-03-2005, 09:18 AM

I took the liberty to throw out a few thoughts/possibilities in support of freakdaddy's position. I am waiting for the explanation why your strategy is better Ness.

bkholdem

12-03-2005, 09:29 AM

Have you come up with a postion yet Leptyne? I"m confused by your replies in this post. If you could please copy and paste them all in one post and then explain yourself I would appreciate it.

bkholdem

12-03-2005, 10:40 PM

Hattifnatt

12-03-2005, 10:54 PM

...Makes it 5 or 6.

bkholdem

12-04-2005, 04:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I took the liberty to throw out a few thoughts/possibilities in support of freakdaddy's position. I am waiting for the explanation why your strategy is better Ness.

[/ QUOTE ]

On second thought I think it just makes more sense to add to my ignore list.

12-04-2005, 05:33 PM

thank you BK that was for me very informative. And it gets away from the spiteful pissing contests some correspondents seem to nurture.