200 NL

[guaranteedBluff]

Villian is TAG, 15/5.

Full ring, 200NL.

One limp, Villian Limp(200), Hero AKs (~200) Raise $12, call, call.


FLOP(~35)4TK rainbow - 3 players.
check, villian bets $35, hero .......

call... other player folds

TURN($105) 6 (completes rainbow)
villian pushes ($160), hero.......
folds

Comments on flop and turn appreciated.

There's not much that villain would be playing so fast here that you have beat. If he was 55/30 or something like that, I could see a call being reasonable, but no way against a 15/5 villain.
I have recently lost alot of money overplaying TPTK and overpairs as I moved up, and I have realized that in situations like these, you are beat a very large percentage of the time.

[emil3000]

That kind of TAGishness means he'd probably only limpcall with a pocket pair maybe AK, AQ, right? Been a while since I played full ring. You're probably behind a predictable player. If he is somewhat tricky, it's closer. I think it's a good fold, although you might lay down a split sometimes.

[Bukem_]

You know the turn bet is coming(or a cr all in), just drop it on the flop if the guy is a set miner.

His line is really retarded though, and proof that almost all 15/5 guys play poorly postflop.

[guaranteedBluff]

but why would he play a set this fast? It seems illogical to play a good hand so fast on an uncoordinated board like this one.

[Kirkrrr]

Very weird line for him, but calling the turn is ugly... about the only hand you're beating there is QK, which is possible but not likely enough to call the turn. Probably a good laydown. I think that unless he had QJ, he misplayed it badly.

Kirk

[Kirkrrr]

[ QUOTE ]
but why would he play a set this fast? It seems illogical to play a good hand so fast

[/ QUOTE ]

... you just answered your own question. He put you on AK.

Kirk

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
You know the turn bet is coming(or a cr all in), just drop it on the flop if the guy is a set miner.

His line is really retarded though, and proof that almost all 15/5 guys play poorly postflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

How retarded is his line if he has QQ or JJ?

[Hattifnatt]

[ QUOTE ]
but why would he play a set this fast? It seems illogical to play a good hand so fast on an uncoordinated board like this one.

[/ QUOTE ]
If I was villian I would had played a set this way like 80-90% of the time, im not much of a TAG though most of the time.

[guaranteedBluff]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
but why would he play a set this fast? It seems illogical to play a good hand so fast on an uncoordinated board like this one.

[/ QUOTE ]
If I was villian I would had played a set this way like 80-90% of the time, im not much of a TAG though most of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is that? Do you think you would get calls from AK often enough to make it worth it? If he did have a set, he certainly could have extracted more from me. If he had QJ, JJ, QQ, I suppose it was a good play but dangerous...

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
If he had QJ, JJ, QQ, I suppose it was a good play but dangerous...

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is it dangerous? That's the only way QQ or JJ wins the pot. Against some villains I probably fire a second barrel on the turn as well.

[guaranteedBluff]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If he had QJ, JJ, QQ, I suppose it was a good play but dangerous...

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is it dangerous? That's the only way QQ or JJ wins the pot. Against some villains I probably fire a second barrel on the turn as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that a lot of heros at the 200NL level that would not lay down AK here regardless of turn bet size - people love there TPTK. This guy only had about 50 hands or so with me, so I don't think he was solid enough to make the read that I would do so.

Also, he would be scared of AA or KK given that I hadn't raised too many hands PF in those 50.

[beavens]

ew, looks like he flopped a set.

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If he had QJ, JJ, QQ, I suppose it was a good play but dangerous...

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is it dangerous? That's the only way QQ or JJ wins the pot. Against some villains I probably fire a second barrel on the turn as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that a lot of heros at the 200NL level that would not lay down AK here regardless of turn bet size - people love there TPTK. This guy only had about 50 hands or so with me, so I don't think he was solid enough to make the read that I would do so.

Also, he would be scared of AA or KK given that I hadn't raised too many hands PF in those 50.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero should have raised or folded the flop. If villain has QQ or JJ he will fold. As played hero told villain that he didn't have AA, KK, TT or (can't remember 3rd card) so villain continued to push. Maybe villain has a real hand(probably 75% of the time). hero showed no aggression so villain ran him over. Sometimes you have to make that raise in a situation when you get a good AK flop. There are plenty of maniacs at $200 who will push with less than a K here........

[ahnuld]

without reading the rest of the thread, I like OP's line alot and that is what I would do. Unless you note him to be very donkish, it seems like an easy fold on turn and you thank god villan didnt bet 60 on turn and 100 on river to show you KT or a flopped set.

[-Skeme-]

Make up your mind on the flop. 15/5 doesn't really limp-call OOP with KQo.. that's a PP set mining 99% of the time, but then again, 50 hands isn't much.

[guaranteedBluff]

Are you suggesting to raise the flop to say, ~90? That basically commits my stack and always pays off the set. Anyone just fold the flop straight up?

[swolfe]

you played it fine. you may have folded a chop, but it's more likely you're beat.

sometimes you can drop it on the flop against these guys, but a lot of times i like your call and see what he does on the turn.

[scdavis0]

[ QUOTE ]
Make up your mind on the flop. 15/5 doesn't really limp-call OOP with KQo.. that's a PP set mining 99% of the time, but then again, 50 hands isn't much.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree that you must make up your mind on the flop. The action will go, turn check/check - river check/call way too often to just give up here.

[teamdonkey]

raising the flop does an outstanding job of folding out worse hands, and pot commiting you against better hands. Without a better read on villain i think this line is ok.

[-Skeme-]

Yeh, because Mr. 15/5 thinks his middle set is no good.

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you suggesting to raise the flop to say, ~90? That basically commits my stack and always pays off the set. Anyone just fold the flop straight up?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm just saying that if you plan to continue past the flop you are committing your stack to see the hand all the way through. That turn 6 does nothing for either of you and you folded to his bet there. If you think he has a set then you were drawing runner-runner and should have folded to the flop bet. Either give it up on the flop or make a raise/push if you think you are ahead. If you call, then you better have a plan to get to a showdown which will most likely involve an all-in.

All of this is read dependent, what do you think villain had? You were the one watching him play for 50 hands. Make a decision and stick with it. It you are wrong, well you just paid for a hand reading lesson. What I would do is not relevant, but I would probably fold unless I thought villain was capable of betting this with an under pair or air.

[ajmargarine]

I /images/graemlins/heart.gif 42-it.

You're getting good at this poker thing.

[swolfe]

you can't fold every time a tight player leads into you after you raise PF, and raising the flop is pretty terrible. calling the flop is the best option IMO. we have position and can see what he does on the turn.

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
you can't fold every time a tight player leads into you after you raise PF, and raising the flop is pretty terrible. calling the flop is the best option IMO. we have position and can see what he does on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't disagree with what you are saying. You can't let him run you over, but if this is athe first time in 50 hands.

I take issue with the see what he does on the turn. A great majority of the time this is a huge bet or a push. So calling the flop gets you nowhere. An A or K on the turn will cost you your entire stack.

What is your plan now that hero invested another $35 in the pot on the flop? If you are folding here then you just spewed $35 on the flop.

[-Skeme-]

It's just TPTK.

[Bukem_]

[ QUOTE ]
It's just TPTK.

[/ QUOTE ]

TPTK is pretty strong on this board.

[-Skeme-]

I don't have much of a problem folding it against this guy.

[swolfe]

[ QUOTE ]
What is your plan now that hero invested another $35 in the pot on the flop? If you are folding here then you just spewed $35 on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't think it's spewed. if i call on the flop, it's with a plan to fold/call/raise if he leads again or bet/check if he checks.

we don't have enough information to make folding more attractive to me than calling. by calling and letting villain act on the turn we're getting more information that will hopefully make it possible for us to make the best decision.

also i disagree that he fires a second barrel the majority of the time, i think it's about 50/50 between him betting and checking.

btw, his turn overbet makes me think his hand is weaker rather than stronger.

[Bukem_]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What is your plan now that hero invested another $35 in the pot on the flop? If you are folding here then you just spewed $35 on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't think it's spewed. if i call on the flop, it's with a plan to fold/call/raise if he leads again or bet/check if he checks.

we don't have enough information to make folding more attractive to me than calling. by calling and letting villain act on the turn we're getting more information that will hopefully make it possible for us to make the best decision.

also i disagree that he fires a second barrel the majority of the time, i think it's about 50/50 between him betting and checking.

btw, his turn overbet makes me think his hand is weaker rather than stronger.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with all of this.

The only way a set plays like this is if he is a bad multi tabler who just shovels money in with a set, disregarding flop texture and relative position, and just hoping his opponents are bad enough to pay him off.

But when 15/5 guys play hands real fast, they are generally trying to push you out with a draw, or a strong but not great hand.

I'd be very tempted to look up the turn bet. If he bet a reasonable amount I'd be much more likely to drop it.

[MTBlue]

I tend to just muck in these situations on the flop. If a rock comes out betting big after limp calling a raise, I assume he hit a set. I always try to isolate the weaker players not play big pots with set miners (unless of course I have middle set or better).

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
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[ QUOTE ]
What is your plan now that hero invested another $35 in the pot on the flop? If you are folding here then you just spewed $35 on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't think it's spewed. if i call on the flop, it's with a plan to fold/call/raise if he leads again or bet/check if he checks.

we don't have enough information to make folding more attractive to me than calling. by calling and letting villain act on the turn we're getting more information that will hopefully make it possible for us to make the best decision.

also i disagree that he fires a second barrel the majority of the time, i think it's about 50/50 between him betting and checking.

btw, his turn overbet makes me think his hand is weaker rather than stronger.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with all of this.

The only way a set plays like this is if he is a bad multi tabler who just shovels money in with a set, disregarding flop texture and relative position, and just hoping his opponents are bad enough to pay him off.

But when 15/5 guys play hands real fast, they are generally trying to push you out with a draw, or a strong but not great hand.

I'd be very tempted to look up the turn bet. If he bet a reasonable amount I'd be much more likely to drop it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this helps explain some my points about the flop play. Now you are actually making a (convincing)case for hero calling off his stack with TPTK here even though the board is basically unchanged. If you raise the flop and get pushed you are probably beat and saved yourself half the stack you are about to call on the dry turn.

Maybe villain is a bluffing fool and hero snaps it off or maybe he is a multitabler who has no read on hero and figures he's just another donk who can't let go of AK.

Tough decision which would much easier with a raise on the flop (again, folding is a viable flop option).

[Bukem_]

When you raise the flop to $90 or a $100 I almost guarantee the push is coming.

[-Skeme-]

When you call the flop I almost guarantee another bet is coming. This debate isn't going anywhere.. it just illustrates how important reads are. I'm ready for results.

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
When you raise the flop to $90 or a $100 I almost guarantee the push is coming.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
When you call the flop I almost guarantee another bet is coming.

[/ QUOTE ]

Both statements are correct.

Can you see why?


(I've always wanted to say that)

[Bukem_]

The turn bet isn't as likely as the flop push.

Sometimes he will go for the turn cr.

[swolfe]

[ QUOTE ]
Sometimes he will go for the turn cr.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's how i'd play TT on this board (depending on my read /images/graemlins/smile.gif)

[MTBlue]

I guess I don't understand what draw the multitabler is on. If someone could elucidate me I would be grateful. I'm assuming that he isn't calling raises with QJo so this leaves four combinations of QJs (maybe) or three combinations of 44 and the occasional TT or AA. I think at best this is even money and tight multitablers at 200NL in my experience aren't very sophisticated.

[Ed S.]

[ QUOTE ]
I tend to just muck in these situations on the flop. If a rock comes out betting big after limp calling a raise, I assume he hit a set. I always try to isolate the weaker players not play big pots with set miners (unless of course I have middle set or better).

[/ QUOTE ]

With this board why would you assume a set? Just because someone leads with calling a heavy raise into you does not mean a set.

Ed S.

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I don't understand what draw the multitabler is on. If someone could elucidate me I would be grateful. I'm assuming that he isn't calling raises with QJo so this leaves four combinations of QJs (maybe) or three combinations of 44 and the occasional TT or AA. I think at best this is even money and tight multitablers at 200NL in my experience aren't very sophisticated.

[/ QUOTE ]

You aren't missing anything. I think (and most posters too I believe) the correct line is to fold the flop without a better read.

What we are bickering over is, if you decide to continue in the hand, what is your next move and how often is TPTK good here.

[Bukem_]

[ QUOTE ]


You aren't missing anything. I think (and most posters too I believe) the correct line is to fold the flop without a better read.



[/ QUOTE ]

When I first played full ring, and a guy like this was betting into me, I would drop AK without too much thought.

But that was mostly due to the fact that I was less likely to make the correct read/decision on later streets.

My Aks played very profitably taking this approach.

[MTBlue]

lol, this guy has setminer stats. He's not calling raises with KJo or KQo. I rarely fold this against a normal player but against a rock this a clear fold. I like to play big pots with weak players not multitabling nits. If you can put villain on a hand that hero can beat that villain would limp call a raise with OP let me know.

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


You aren't missing anything. I think (and most posters too I believe) the correct line is to fold the flop without a better read.



[/ QUOTE ]

When I first played full ring, and a guy like this was betting into me, I would drop AK without too much thought.

But that was mostly due to the fact that I was less likely to make the correct read/decision on later streets.

My Aks played very profitably taking this approach.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the best post on the importance of reads that we have had in a while. I don't think any of us disagree about the fundamentals here. We disagree based upon our read of villain's actions and his probable holdings.

Now let's get the result so somebody can say I told you so /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[swolfe]

[ QUOTE ]
Now let's get the result so somebody can say I told you so /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

didn't OP say he folded the turn? i guess the world will never know /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Moozh]

I'm suprized to see that no one else has tried to put this guy on a specific hand range. With an opponent who has only a 15% VPIP, I would think we could narrow it down a lot here.z

Let's start with the hands that beat you. AA, AK, TT, 44, KT, K4, T4. For a guy only playing 15% of his hands I think we can rule out K4 and T4. KTo is very unlikely for a 15%er, but it would be nice to know the villian's position at the table. 44 is very possible, but wouldn't AA, AK, and TT fit into the top 5% of PFR hands? To me it looks like KTs, 44, or maybe a slowplayed AA, AK, or TT.

What are we ahead of? A whole lot, but what hands would he play that way? KQ? QJ? QQ, JJ? Maybe an adventurous smaller pair.

So, how does that affect our decision. I see 3 combos of 44 and 2 combos of KTs. Discount the aces and tens because of the limp preflop and we can say 3ish combos of AA and 2 combos of TT. That's about 10 cominations of hands we're behind.

There are 6 combos of AK to tie.

What about hands were ahead of? 8 combos of KQ, but would he limp in with KQo and then play it like that? Maybe cut it down to 4. Then there's QJ. He could be semi-bluffing. Lets limit it to the 4 combos of QJs. QQ and JJ are 6 combos each, but let's only give him credit for 2 or each since it would be strange to play them that way. That gives us up to 12 combinations that we beat.

Now those numbers are all assumed. If someone thinks some hands are more likely than others, just change the numbers to match the probabilities.

With the numbers I have, let's see what happens if you call. If you're behind, you're drawing to at best 3 outs, so we'll just simplify and say 0 outs. If he has AK, we'll say you split 100% of the time. If you're ahead, you'll win 100% of the time except against QJ which you beat 67% of the time.

So, you pay $160. 10 times you win $0. 6 times you are returned $212 (AK). 4 times you are returned $283 (QJ). 8 times you are returned $425. Out of 28 times, your net result on a call (assuming my combination numbers) would be +$47.28.

Now perhaps those numbers are a bit optimistic, but I think you're in better shape than you might think. Also, one more thing to think about was your flat call on the flop. Would you think that would make it more or less likely for him to bet a worse hand on the turn?

EDIT: Whoops, I just realized that we're on the turn and that you have an ace, so you'll beat QJ closer to 85% of the time here. Not a huge difference in the numbers, but maybe enough to bump it up to +50ish.

[ QUOTE ]
So, you pay $160. 10 times you win $0. 6 times you are returned $212 (AK). 4 times you are returned $283 (QJ). 8 times you are returned $425. Out of 28 times, your net result on a call (assuming my combination numbers) would be +$47.28.

[/ QUOTE ]
I could be wrong here, but calculating it this way you would be returned $47.28 after paying $160. That's actually a net loss of -112.72 right?

[Moozh]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So, you pay $160. 10 times you win $0. 6 times you are returned $212 (AK). 4 times you are returned $283 (QJ). 8 times you are returned $425. Out of 28 times, your net result on a call (assuming my combination numbers) would be +$47.28.

[/ QUOTE ]
I could be wrong here, but calculating it this way you would be returned $47.28 after paying $160. That's actually a net loss of -112.72 right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I took that into account. I totalled up all the 'returned' numbers, subtracted (28*160) from that number, and then divided by 28 to get the +45.