call down with A-hi UI

[TheHip41]

EuroBet 5-10 9 handed

Villian 35/6/1.5 over 100 or so hands


Hip has A /images/graemlins/club.gif 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif in CO


few folds, Villian limps in late MP, I raise, few folds, BB calls, villian calls

Flop (3 players) 6SB

K /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif


BB checks, Villian bets, Hip calls, BB folds

I know he has no K, he wouldn't be smart enough to bet that here. He either has a 3, PP, or clubs, more likely the later two.

Turn (2 players) 5BB

4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Villian bets, Hip calls

I plan on calling any non club river, and raising an A

PREFLOP: For me to consider raising with a garbage hand like A7o, there are a few key variables that have be in place.

1) The button, small blind and the big blind have to all be very tight players, the kind that are very unlikey to call my raise. I find that the probabilty of three players all staying out of your way in this spot is usually very low, and this is essential component to your strategy since if one of the players behind you calls then you will usally have to make a hand to win, and A7o doesnt make a hand very often(you only have 3 outs to a hand basically)

2) The opponent you are isolating must be the type that really repects your raises or other peoples raises in general making him unlikely to chase that much postflop in this situation. Again, this is a critical aspect to your strategy since most of the time you are going to miss the flop pretty badly and you can find yourself just bluffing your chips off with 3 outs or less. I believe most opponents of this description will play too loose postflop, not too tight, which is exactly what you dont want.

3) Another important factor is how predictable your opponent plays postflop, if he is tricky at all and will put pressure plays on you, then raising with a hand like A7o is just not worth the trouble since most of the time you wont have a hand that can combat his trickiness.

So to conclude, to make the play you are attempting, these 3 variables must be in place in order for your isolation strategy to be +ev IMO, And I suspect that isnt the case in your hand.

One more thing, I would fold the flop, the pot isnt that big, you have no hand, the gig is up. When you have no hand, and your caught, there is no need to tough it out, just fold. There are alot of very aggressive people on partypoker, where calling down with ace high is a very profitable strategy, but I dont think this opponent is that aggressive postflop. When he bets into you with the BB also in the hand, I believe he's got something, even if he has only a flushdraw which is your best case scenario he still has 15 outs and 2 streets to hit which means he will still overtake you 54% of the time. So even in your best case scenario, you are still an underdog.

fold preflop, fold flop, fold turn . . . the pot is pretty small.

Preflop, I don't know what other people think, but this hand is to crappy to try to ISO with.

On the flop, even if he has what you think he has the RIO merits a fold. Calling against a PP 66,55,44,22 gives you break even odds. You're losing money to all other PP. His flush draw has 15 outs against you. Pretty much textbook RIO.

As far as the river goes . . . what are you getting value from if you do raise? You beat A6-2. I'd bet an ace, and I'd call an ace, but I wouldn't raise an ace.

[hobbsmann]

I like it, although I do tend to do crap like this in smallish pot a little too much. Since you have the A /images/graemlins/club.gif if he has a flush draw it is not A high so you don't have to worry about him bluffing with a better A high hand. Furthermore, you likely have 6 outs when behind and he will have a club draw enough to make this profitable IMO.

I also like preflop.

15 will give him, a pair or better 64% of the time

[ QUOTE ]
15 will give him, a pair or better 64% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]
Incorrect, it is 54.1% to be exact, page 107 in the book "Holdem Poker" by David Sklansky

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
PREFLOP: For me to consider raising with a garbage hand like A7o, there are a few key variables that have be in place.



[/ QUOTE ]


all i hear is blah blah blah weak tight /images/graemlins/grin.gif


If I was playing on Party, then I'd fold. PPl at Pokerroom love to check/fold flops to me.

If I had A7s, would that be a raising hand?

A7o, and KTo are about as bad as I get isolating one PR fish.

So if I'm folding A7o because he might have 66, or two live flush draw cards, wouldn't you also advocate folding if I held A /images/graemlins/club.gif Qx, or Jx, or Tx ?

I'm not folding A /images/graemlins/club.gif Qx on this flop

Seriously, his pfr is respectable, he doesn't have 99, TT, JJ or QQ, so it's not like I'm totally screwed here. He has 22-88, or a flush draw here like always. Once that baby card on the turn hits, I figure if he's got /images/graemlins/club.gif, I'm winning, if he has PP, he's winning, but I have 6 outs.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
PREFLOP: For me to consider raising with a garbage hand like A7o, there are a few key variables that have be in place.



[/ QUOTE ]


all i hear is blah blah blah weak tight /images/graemlins/grin.gif


If I was playing on Party, then I'd fold. PPl at Pokerroom love to check/fold flops to me.

If I had A7s, would that be a raising hand?

A7o, and KTo are about as bad as I get isolating one PR fish.

So if I'm folding A7o because he might have 66, or two live flush draw cards, wouldn't you also advocate folding if I held A /images/graemlins/club.gif Qx, or Jx, or Tx ?

I'm not folding A /images/graemlins/club.gif Qx on this flop

Seriously, his pfr is respectable, he doesn't have 99, TT, JJ or QQ, so it's not like I'm totally screwed here. He has 22-88, or a flush draw here like always. Once that baby card on the turn hits, I figure if he's got /images/graemlins/club.gif, I'm winning, if he has PP, he's winning, but I have 6 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]
A good discussion on whether to ISO or not to ISO can be found in "Poker Essays 1" by Mason Malmuth, on page 39. The hand he refers to is Ah4h, a very simular hand to A7o. I think you should read it.
Another good discussion of this kind of ISO strategy can be found in HPFAP on pages 33-35, I think you should read that also, especially the top paragraph on page 35.
Just trying to be helpful /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
PREFLOP: For me to consider raising with a garbage hand like A7o, there are a few key variables that have be in place.



[/ QUOTE ]


all i hear is blah blah blah weak tight /images/graemlins/grin.gif


If I was playing on Party, then I'd fold. PPl at Pokerroom love to check/fold flops to me.

If I had A7s, would that be a raising hand?

A7o, and KTo are about as bad as I get isolating one PR fish.

So if I'm folding A7o because he might have 66, or two live flush draw cards, wouldn't you also advocate folding if I held A /images/graemlins/club.gif Qx, or Jx, or Tx ?

I'm not folding A /images/graemlins/club.gif Qx on this flop

Seriously, his pfr is respectable, he doesn't have 99, TT, JJ or QQ, so it's not like I'm totally screwed here. He has 22-88, or a flush draw here like always. Once that baby card on the turn hits, I figure if he's got /images/graemlins/club.gif, I'm winning, if he has PP, he's winning, but I have 6 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]
A good discussion on whether to ISO or not to ISO can be found in "Poker Essays 1" by Mason Malmuth, on page 39. The hand he refers to is Ah4h, a very simular hand to A7o. I think you should read it.
Another good discussion of this kind of ISO strategy can be found in HPFAP on pages 33-35, I think you should read that also, especially the top paragraph on page 35.
Just trying to be helpful /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I just moved, so those books aren't in my computer chair, so whatever. I still think you haven't experienced the weak tightness of PR for yourself. This isn't a 'standard' raise, but I probably do about 1/3 of the time.

When I raise, it's almost always HU vs the limper, or one blind decides to call. What is your cut off for raising here?

AKs, AK, AQs, AQ, AJs, AJ, ATs

these are auto
What about

ATo
A9s
A9o
A8s
A8o
A7s
A6s

Just wondering

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
PREFLOP: For me to consider raising with a garbage hand like A7o, there are a few key variables that have be in place.



[/ QUOTE ]


all i hear is blah blah blah weak tight /images/graemlins/grin.gif


If I was playing on Party, then I'd fold. PPl at Pokerroom love to check/fold flops to me.

If I had A7s, would that be a raising hand?

A7o, and KTo are about as bad as I get isolating one PR fish.

So if I'm folding A7o because he might have 66, or two live flush draw cards, wouldn't you also advocate folding if I held A /images/graemlins/club.gif Qx, or Jx, or Tx ?

I'm not folding A /images/graemlins/club.gif Qx on this flop

Seriously, his pfr is respectable, he doesn't have 99, TT, JJ or QQ, so it's not like I'm totally screwed here. He has 22-88, or a flush draw here like always. Once that baby card on the turn hits, I figure if he's got /images/graemlins/club.gif, I'm winning, if he has PP, he's winning, but I have 6 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]
A good discussion on whether to ISO or not to ISO can be found in "Poker Essays 1" by Mason Malmuth, on page 39. The hand he refers to is Ah4h, a very simular hand to A7o. I think you should read it.
Another good discussion of this kind of ISO strategy can be found in HPFAP on pages 33-35, I think you should read that also, especially the top paragraph on page 35.
Just trying to be helpful /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I just moved, so those books aren't in my computer chair, so whatever. I still think you haven't experienced the weak tightness of PR for yourself. This isn't a 'standard' raise, but I probably do about 1/3 of the time.

When I raise, it's almost always HU vs the limper, or one blind decides to call. What is your cut off for raising here?

AKs, AK, AQs, AQ, AJs, AJ, ATs

these are auto
What about

ATo
A9s
A9o
A8s
A8o
A7s
A6s

Just wondering

[/ QUOTE ]
With no reads on the button, blinds or the limping opponent my cut off as far as raising would be ATo, KJo, QJs, JTs, 77's. I would limp in with many other holdings. And if the remaining players are tight I would open up my raising range some, and if both the remaining players are tight and the limper will play weak tight postflop then I will open up my raising a lot.

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
PREFLOP: For me to consider raising with a garbage hand like A7o, there are a few key variables that have be in place.



[/ QUOTE ]


all i hear is blah blah blah weak tight /images/graemlins/grin.gif


If I was playing on Party, then I'd fold. PPl at Pokerroom love to check/fold flops to me.

If I had A7s, would that be a raising hand?

A7o, and KTo are about as bad as I get isolating one PR fish.

So if I'm folding A7o because he might have 66, or two live flush draw cards, wouldn't you also advocate folding if I held A /images/graemlins/club.gif Qx, or Jx, or Tx ?

I'm not folding A /images/graemlins/club.gif Qx on this flop

Seriously, his pfr is respectable, he doesn't have 99, TT, JJ or QQ, so it's not like I'm totally screwed here. He has 22-88, or a flush draw here like always. Once that baby card on the turn hits, I figure if he's got /images/graemlins/club.gif, I'm winning, if he has PP, he's winning, but I have 6 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]
A good discussion on whether to ISO or not to ISO can be found in "Poker Essays 1" by Mason Malmuth, on page 39. The hand he refers to is Ah4h, a very simular hand to A7o. I think you should read it.
Another good discussion of this kind of ISO strategy can be found in HPFAP on pages 33-35, I think you should read that also, especially the top paragraph on page 35.
Just trying to be helpful /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I just moved, so those books aren't in my computer chair, so whatever. I still think you haven't experienced the weak tightness of PR for yourself. This isn't a 'standard' raise, but I probably do about 1/3 of the time.

When I raise, it's almost always HU vs the limper, or one blind decides to call. What is your cut off for raising here?

AKs, AK, AQs, AQ, AJs, AJ, ATs

these are auto
What about

ATo
A9s
A9o
A8s
A8o
A7s
A6s

Just wondering

[/ QUOTE ]
With no reads on the button, blinds or the limping opponent my cut off as far as raising would be ATo, KJo, QJs, JTs, 77's. I would limp in with many other holdings. And if the remaining players are tight I would open up my raising range some, and if both the remaining players are tight and the limper will play weak tight postflop then I will open up my raising a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you raise ATo here, so that is equivolent to A8o for me. Since this was a table I was owning, I don't see how A7o is that far of a jump.


For what it's worth, I'm limping here like never. I've found that I can control things much better by raising every hand I'm going to play in the CO.

Are you limping 22-44 here? I'm probably not.

I'm raising 55-AA, A7-AK, KQ-KTo, and probably QTs, JTs. That gets me to about 12% /images/graemlins/grin.gif


Seriously, what are you limping here?


also, 2/4 is way different from 5-10. At 2/4 PP, I'm folding A9o and down all day, since it'll be 1000 ways to the flop regardless of what I do.

[ QUOTE ]
For what it's worth, I'm limping here like never. I've found that I can control things much better by raising every hand I'm going to play in the CO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree 100%. All good players take advantage of their CO and Button hands, even if they're weaker than the preferred starting hand. The power of position is very important in poker. I would raise here with A7o as well to isolate the limper who certainly does not have us dominated. Unless he is a weak passive player, he would've raised AK-A9s. If he is a weak passive player, then raising with A7o is also fine because if the flop is lowball, then you win with one bet.

Oh yeah, I would call on any non-club river and raise any ace as well. Villian is betting a flush draw here a majority of the time.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
PREFLOP: For me to consider raising with a garbage hand like A7o, there are a few key variables that have be in place.



[/ QUOTE ]


all i hear is blah blah blah weak tight /images/graemlins/grin.gif


If I was playing on Party, then I'd fold. PPl at Pokerroom love to check/fold flops to me.

If I had A7s, would that be a raising hand?

A7o, and KTo are about as bad as I get isolating one PR fish.

So if I'm folding A7o because he might have 66, or two live flush draw cards, wouldn't you also advocate folding if I held A /images/graemlins/club.gif Qx, or Jx, or Tx ?

I'm not folding A /images/graemlins/club.gif Qx on this flop

Seriously, his pfr is respectable, he doesn't have 99, TT, JJ or QQ, so it's not like I'm totally screwed here. He has 22-88, or a flush draw here like always. Once that baby card on the turn hits, I figure if he's got /images/graemlins/club.gif, I'm winning, if he has PP, he's winning, but I have 6 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]
A good discussion on whether to ISO or not to ISO can be found in "Poker Essays 1" by Mason Malmuth, on page 39. The hand he refers to is Ah4h, a very simular hand to A7o. I think you should read it.
Another good discussion of this kind of ISO strategy can be found in HPFAP on pages 33-35, I think you should read that also, especially the top paragraph on page 35.
Just trying to be helpful /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I just moved, so those books aren't in my computer chair, so whatever. I still think you haven't experienced the weak tightness of PR for yourself. This isn't a 'standard' raise, but I probably do about 1/3 of the time.

When I raise, it's almost always HU vs the limper, or one blind decides to call. What is your cut off for raising here?

AKs, AK, AQs, AQ, AJs, AJ, ATs

these are auto
What about

ATo
A9s
A9o
A8s
A8o
A7s
A6s

Just wondering

[/ QUOTE ]
With no reads on the button, blinds or the limping opponent my cut off as far as raising would be ATo, KJo, QJs, JTs, 77's. I would limp in with many other holdings. And if the remaining players are tight I would open up my raising range some, and if both the remaining players are tight and the limper will play weak tight postflop then I will open up my raising a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you raise ATo here, so that is equivolent to A8o for me. Since this was a table I was owning, I don't see how A7o is that far of a jump.


For what it's worth, I'm limping here like never. I've found that I can control things much better by raising every hand I'm going to play in the CO.

Are you limping 22-44 here? I'm probably not.

I'm raising 55-AA, A7-AK, KQ-KTo, and probably QTs, JTs. That gets me to about 12% /images/graemlins/grin.gif


Seriously, what are you limping here?


also, 2/4 is way different from 5-10. At 2/4 PP, I'm folding A9o and down all day, since it'll be 1000 ways to the flop regardless of what I do.

[/ QUOTE ]
IMO if you are limping here never then you are playing too rigid in this spot. Many times you will be against a loose type opponent but you cant raise becuz your hand is not strong enough or the situation is not right(like the blinds are loose or you dont have good control over the limper....there are still many hands that are not strong enough to raise but still too strong to fold, hands like QTs,J9s, T9s, 98s, A4s, K9s, KTo,QJo,QTo,JTo,55,66....all these hands play very well against one loose limper, but the sitaution may not be right to raise with these hands, so limping in becomes the ideal strategy. Also I didnt mention KTs, with no reads I usually raise this hand against one loose limper, i forgot to mention that as one of my cut off hands.

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
QTs,J9s, T9s, 98s, A4s, K9s, KTo,QJo,QTo,JTo,55,66.

[/ QUOTE ]

same limper as the orignial hand, still in CO, still at PR 5-10

QTs - raise
J9s - raise
T9s - raise
98s - raise
A4s - raise
K9s - raise
KTo - raise
QJo - raise
QTs - raise
QTo - fold
JTo - fold
55 - raise
66 - raise


People love being at my table /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
QTs,J9s, T9s, 98s, A4s, K9s, KTo,QJo,QTo,JTo,55,66.

[/ QUOTE ]

same limper as the orignial hand, still in CO, still at PR 5-10

QTs - raise
J9s - raise
T9s - raise
98s - raise
A4s - raise
K9s - raise
KTo - raise
QJo - raise
QTs - raise
QTo - fold
JTo - fold
55 - raise
66 - raise


People love being at my table /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
Iso-raising with these hands without a strong read on your opponent, the button, or the blinds should prove to be very costly for you over the long run. Whats worse is you will never notice this cost, since it wont be easy to see, so you will never realize this strategy is costing you, which makes it even that much more costlier. And QTo and JTo are very marginal hands that should be folded most of time, but a time they are definitely playable/profitable IMO is when you are in late position against a loose weak opponent.

Must be a typo.
15/47=31.9
15/46=32.6
31.9+32.6=64.5
Am I missing something?

[ QUOTE ]
Must be a typo.
15/47=31.9
15/46=32.6
31.9+32.6=64.5
Am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes you are missing something, you are doing the math wrong, you cannot simply add the probabities together. The equation looks like this...you basically have to figure out the probability of the event not happnening and then take that probabilty and substract it from 1.
(32/47) x (31/46) = .4588,
1 - .4588 = .5412 which is 54.1%

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
Must be a typo.
15/47=31.9
15/46=32.6
31.9+32.6=64.5
Am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure that's not how you figure that out.

I'm not sure exactly, but that seems wrong.

Pokerstove says:

Low flush draw

Board: Kc Ks 3c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 51.5657 % 51.11% 00.45% { Ac7s }
Hand 2: 48.4343 % 47.98% 00.45% { 9c8c }


Big flush draw:


Board: Kc Ks 3c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 49.6465 % 49.19% 00.45% { Ac7s }
Hand 2: 50.3535 % 49.90% 00.45% { QcJc }


PP


Board: Kc Ks 3c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 29.9551 % 29.75% 00.20% { Ac7s }
Hand 2: 70.0449 % 69.84% 00.20% { 66-22 }


If a blank hits the turn:

Small Flush draw

Board: Kc Ks 3c 4d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 68.1818 % 68.18% 00.00% { Ac7s }
Hand 2: 31.8182 % 31.82% 00.00% { 9c8c }

Big flush draw

Board: Kc Ks 3c 4d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 68.1818 % 68.18% 00.00% { Ac7s }
Hand 2: 31.8182 % 31.82% 00.00% { QcJc }


pp

Board: Kc Ks 3c 4d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 13.6364 % 13.64% 00.00% { Ac7s }
Hand 2: 86.3636 % 86.36% 00.00% { 66-22 }

Thanks. I always do it wrong.

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Must be a typo.
15/47=31.9
15/46=32.6
31.9+32.6=64.5
Am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes you are missing something, you are doing the math wrong, you cannot simply add the probabities together. The equation looks like this...you basically have to figure out the probability of the event not happnening and then take that probabilty and substract it from 1.
(32/47) x (31/46) = .4588,
1 - .4588 = .5412 which is 54.1%

[/ QUOTE ]

I like his way better.

Say I have 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif Opponent has A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

FLOP is 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

21/45 = 47%
21/44 = 48%

woo hoo, I'm a 95% favorite to win the pot!!! /images/graemlins/tongue.gif /images/graemlins/tongue.gif