semi-weird 200/400 bellagio hand

[bicyclekick]

Decent enough 200/400 full table game. 5 hours deap in the session and I'm up quite a bit and have about as good of an image as possible. I've done 2 overaggressive things that have gotten shown down but that's ok, it keeps them on their tows. I've been playing pretty tight...not like running it over...so I don't have the 'wild' image I sometimse carry with me.

A kinda weak tight local limps ep, a semi-loose passive preflop(like i've seen her open limp 87s lmp) aggressive postflop girl limps, a meh player limps, I limp K/images/graemlins/club.gifT/images/graemlins/heart.gif in the co, button is a losing player in the game folds, good player who I don't know much about but a friend told me is a very solid semi-weird player raises out of the sb, bb calls, we all call. This isn't standard. Most pots are shorthanded and not TOO much limping.

Flop K/images/graemlins/spade.gifJ/images/graemlins/spade.gif6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

SB bets, folds to the girl who raises, I 3 bet, sb calls, girl calls.

Turn 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif

Checked to me. I?

/edit sorry I originally had the 8 when I meant the 7 of spades.

[Paluka]

My first instinct is that I'd take a free card here. I really don't want to fold if I get checkraised, but I don't want to have to put 3 bets in to show this one down either. On the other hand, I don't have a spade and I hate giving free cards. This is a tough spot, if I thought I could comfortably fold to a checkraise I would bet.

[mike l.]

you have top pair. you bet and you get to showdown unless they start getting uber crazy on you (a c/r does not count as uber crazy). checking here against two players is bad limit hold em.

[poker1O1]

I would check. girl could be raising with draw, and SB has represented some kind of hand, and if marginal, I would suspect would try to cap the flop to push out the girl.

[DcifrThs]

i bet the turn.

if checkraised by the sb id be very surprised but lets see. the sb is supposedly solid and plays wierd according to a 2nd hand source.

solid raises the sb vs. 3 limpers. what range here? clearly the normal ones but also probably hands like T9s etc. if he's in the mood /images/graemlins/wink.gif

continuation bet on the flop and calling two cold after a semiloose passive but agro girl 3 bets. now if you know this girl is agro, does the sb? if so id be more likely to bet and call downa c/r.

it doesn't look like the bb has AK at all, id vastly discount that at this point. same w/ KQs. KK/JJ would proabably bet this turn and AsAx might checkraise while AA nos apde would bet.

im having a tough time narrowing down a hand here, especially one that you beat if the sb decides to continue. QQs maybe if sb knows you know girl is agro postflop. but id think that might bet the turn...but could also c'r it sometimes.

if you bet the turn and are wrong (a hand you beat w/ a draw is out) you cost yourself the equity loss on that street and the pot if the draw card hits and it woulda folded to a bet.

if you are correct that your hand is best and bet and get c'red you could make a large mistake if ahead. you could also have outs, but it would be looking very very bad for you if you got c'r here.

the probly is, you can't revolve your strategy entirely around teh sb. the 3rd player in this pot pushes up the more attractive probabilities in terms of hand ranges imo.

id bet and see what happens. im really not normally a fan of that line but i htink its good here. it seems this is a spot where in the long run you have a very difficult to figure out amount of expectation b/c it depends so highly on information you dont yet have (their actions after you bet/check)...i.e. its a spot where the change in expectation is large iwth respect to changes in assumptions and ex ante actions.

in these spots, taking an aggressive line tends to increase expectation along with volatility. therefore, id go with a bet here (again) and see what develops. id really want to see a showdown here b/c even at these limits, peoples' thought processes never cease to amaze me.

Barron

[Boris]

Check and it's not close. Your hand sucks for this situation. You don't want to give big action post flop in a multiway pot with top pair no kicker against good players. Get to the showdown as cheaply as possible.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
Check and it's not close. Your hand sucks for this situation. You don't want to give big action post flop in a multiway pot with top pair no kicker against good players. Get to the showdown as cheaply as possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

normally id agree...but the postflop agro girl AND the sb checked to bk after he showed NO pf agression. its a tough spot exactly because you want to get to the showdown but also because you want to charge draws and collect value from worse hands.

so what do their checks mean? especially given a spade hit the turn.

Barron

[mike l.]

"so what do their checks mean?"

it means for one that their hands are too weak to bet-3 bet. checking here is criminal. the pot is big and that card is scary. make them pay to continue. KT is too often the best hand here.

[Boris]

If BK bets here he is hoping bb has QQ or As-Qs (much less likely) AND the girl has a jack. Other than that he is screwed and will most likely get check-raised.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
If BK bets here he is hoping bb has QQ or As-Qs (much less likely) AND the girl has a jack. Other than that he is screwed and will most likely get check-raised.

[/ QUOTE ]

what do you put the sb on?
i think bk is very likely ahead of the girl.

Barron

[Boris]

I meant sb when I wrote bb in my original post. My opinion is that BK is 70% (number from my azz) to be ahead of the girl. I just don't see the sb calling with many hands that BK can beat. Maybe QsQx. In this case a check is OK.

[mike l.]

sb can easily have all sorts of hands. girl can have all sorts of hands. betting is the aggressive tough play.

[mike l.]

"Maybe QsQx."

that flops all draw heavy and naughty, and the pot is big. expect any decent sb to be calling two cold on that flop with all sorts of hands. there's no way anyone is folding QQ there 200-400.

[oreogod]

I think u have to bet. Thats a sucky turn card for them. A far as getting CRed Dcfir mentioned calling down if you know that SB knows, that the girl is aggro...if u dont know that how do u handle the CR? Id still be tempted to call down, dunno, maybe someone can find a fold in there. Dont think I can fold with the way the action has developed.

Also, I dont know what the river was, but assuming its a blank are u betting or checking if they both call (Id imagine u are betting if only aggro girl calls)

Some interesting analysis from very good posters, but I think it's a little more straightforward than some are making it out to be:

1. Solid SB raises several limpers preflop. Range: Big pair, AK-AJs, some suited connectors or big suited one-gappers.

2. Solid SB calls a flop 3 bet. Range: We can eliminate the suiteds unless they're spades. So now we've got AK, KQs-KJs, or two spades.

3. We still have girl to worry about.

So, when the third spade hits the board it seems exceedingly unlikely that you're ahead of SB, with a good chance that you're drawing dead. Seems like a pretty clear check to me, and possibly a river fold for even just one more bet if it comes from the SB.

[RED_RAIN]

Haven't read replies yet.

I'd bet and call a check/raise from the SB who might have something like AJ with A of spades. If it goes you bet, call by SB, check/raise by girl, I'd fold there.

[Baulucky]

I avoid playing dominated big offsuits in multiway pots preflop.

On the turn, the SB is likely ahead and seeing a showdown. I'd check and fold to any bet if I don't improve some on the river.

I have not played this high, but I don't see how that changes things from a party 30-60 game in this case. I'd like to know.

[DeeJ]

check. Giving a free card could be dangerous but with SB calling 2 and the girl raising on the flop I think I want to hit my offsuit T on the river /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[IndieMatty]

I had a very similar hand the other night, I checked and hated myself for it when the red ace hit on the river. I think I have to bet this and then re-evaluate on the river. (I'm calling a checkraise)

[PokerBob]

bet

[ggbman]

[ QUOTE ]
Some interesting analysis from very good posters, but I think it's a little more straightforward than some are making it out to be:

1. Solid SB raises several limpers preflop. Range: Big pair, AK-AJs, some suited connectors or big suited one-gappers.

2. Solid SB calls a flop 3 bet. Range: We can eliminate the suiteds unless they're spades. So now we've got AK, KQs-KJs, or two spades.

3. We still have girl to worry about.

So, when the third spade hits the board it seems exceedingly unlikely that you're ahead of SB, with a good chance that you're drawing dead. Seems like a pretty clear check to me, and possibly a river fold for even just one more bet if it comes from the SB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Everyone should read this, because this an EXCELLENT analysis IMO.

Furthermore, some hands that have you beat still might check this river in fear that the lady missed her CR giving you a freeshown. it's not likely, but if it happens 10% of the time it's worth considering.

There are not too many non-spade draw hands that are peeling here, so giving free cards shouldn't be a concern here because more often you are getting check-raised by better hands, or at least called down whereas you could have saved a bet by checking.

[andyfox]

Plus nobody's folding a better hand or a hand with a draw. And they're good enough to check-raise either.

I swung back and forth between betting and checking as I read each response. Tough spot, as K-To often is.

[limon]

you...get beat in 2 places. take a free one and fold.

[J.A.Sucker]

Hi BK,

Check. You are in deep kimchee.

fold preflop. given that, though, i check behind. this is a WAWB situation and I am really concerned about the multiway action.

[DeeJ]

no message apart from

what happened next?

[MattiasL]

[ QUOTE ]
fold preflop. given that, though, i check behind. this is a WAWB situation and I am really concerned about the multiway action.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is most definitely not a WAWB situation. There are a lot of probable draws out there. Especially the spades.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi BK,

Check. You are in deep kimchee.

[/ QUOTE ]


mmmmmm
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v713/Dcifrths/kimchee.gif

bet b/c i like kimchee /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Barron

[Baulucky]

How much did you lose in this hand?.

[jetsonsdogcanfly]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's a little more straightforward than some are making it out to be:

[/ QUOTE ]

My version of straightforward: This pot is huge, there are probably around 18 cards that beat you if you are ahead.

I think the sb is getting odds to call lots of hand on the flop, getting 8.5 to 1. He may fold no spade hands or lone weak spades to the turn bet.

I for some reason just don't see a c/r from that many hands that beat you, unless these are players that hate to donk. I'd almost expect a c/r to be more likely to be a bluff. Come to think of it, I just wouldn't really expect a c/r.

[Paluka]

I really want to know the results of this hand. Please post them!

[bicyclekick]

I can see the turn going either way. I haven't made up my mind yet as to if checking or betting is better for sure. I'm leaning towards betting but I dunno...when I was at the table alarm bells went off in my head when the sb called 2 cold and about the only hand I thought he'd call 2 bets with that I'm beating is QT suited. As far as the girl, I really thought there was a decent chance she made a flush based on what types of hands she generally limps and she almost always would c/r here. Then again if she c/r it's an ez fold. Same with the sb, if he c/r I'm gone.

I checked behind. The river paired the 6 and they checked to me again. Now what?

[Paluka]

I guess you have to bet now, don't you?

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess you have to bet now, don't you?

[/ QUOTE ]

no, considering betting would be a near expert play,

reaching for your chips to bet would be close to expert,

and betting would be expert...but you are close paluka /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

Barron

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I guess you have to bet now, don't you?

[/ QUOTE ]

no, considering betting would be a near expert play,

reaching for your chips to bet would be close to expert,

and betting would be expert...but you are close paluka /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand this post at all.

[mikelow]

Bet. Maybe they don't have too much. Perhap you will get called by AsJd or somethng like that.

You waited a week to post the "results," which was the river card only. Will we have to wait another week for
the actual result?

[bicyclekick]

Fine.

I was SO shocked the river got checked to me I pretty much froze up and was just like uhhhh uhhh I guess I check? Betting is the play and I screwed it up. But I don't think checking is horrible either.

SB open mucked, girl turned over K8d and we chopped the pot. In this case I wouldn't have gained any value, but betting is still the play.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I guess you have to bet now, don't you?

[/ QUOTE ]

no, considering betting would be a near expert play,

reaching for your chips to bet would be close to expert,

and betting would be expert...but you are close paluka /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand this post at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

read the dinner party post...

Barron

[danzasmack]

[ QUOTE ]
Fine.

I was SO shocked the river got checked to me I pretty much froze up and was just like uhhhh uhhh I guess I check? Betting is the play and I screwed it up. But I don't think checking is horrible either.

SB open mucked, girl turned over K8d and we chopped the pot. In this case I wouldn't have gained any value, but betting is still the play.

[/ QUOTE ]

K8 you chopped? dont you lose to K's and 8' over your K's and 6's?

[Baulucky]

[ QUOTE ]
SB open mucked, girl turned over K8d and we chopped the pot. In this case I wouldn't have gained any value, but betting is still the play.


[/ QUOTE ]

Nice table selection. Incredible.

[Spartan1983]

BK had KT girl had K 8, Both have K's and 6's with a J on the board they chop.

[bicyclekick]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fine.

I was SO shocked the river got checked to me I pretty much froze up and was just like uhhhh uhhh I guess I check? Betting is the play and I screwed it up. But I don't think checking is horrible either.

SB open mucked, girl turned over K8d and we chopped the pot. In this case I wouldn't have gained any value, but betting is still the play.

[/ QUOTE ]

K8 you chopped? dont you lose to K's and 8' over your K's and 6's?

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I mis-remembered the board and it was a 7 on the turn.