Very Important NLH Tourney Question(s),

[Vince Lepore]

40 players remain from a field of 150. You have T3100. Approxametly T100K total in play. You are one of the better players remaining (Top 15). You are in the cut off. Blinds are T150-300. A weak tight player raises UTG to T900. You hold A,Ks. What is your play and why? What should you be thinking at this point? What if your stack was T2100?

All inputs appreciated.

Vince

[eMarkM]

What's weak-tighties stack size? Do you have him covered? What's the leaders stack size compared to you? Are you an above or below average stack? Last 18 get paid? These are answers I'd want to know before I would say how I would play it. However, in most circumstances I would tend to go all-in, since AK plays best all-in and is only a big dog to AA/KK. You may get WT guy to lay his hand down.

[Vince Lepore]

Weak tight has about T2800. They pay 10 places. Average stack size is ~ T2500. BTW I believe only the weak tight stack size question is relevant.

Vince

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

If he's so weak-tight that he'll always fold AK & QQ to an all-in reraise, you have to fold.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I'm assuming Mr. WT will only raise with AA,KK,QQ and AKs and will fold everything but AA & KK to a reraise. In that case reraising all-in is -EV. If you expand Mr. WT's holdings to include AKo, the play becomes +EV.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

Most of the time in this situation I strongly consider going all-in. Your all-in raise will be in the preferred 2-5 times the size of the pot, and big enough to perhaps make the raiser fold, thus making it a good play. However, you specified weak-tight as the raiser. If you do not think he would make such a play with AQ, AJ or KQ, then going all-in is much more questionable. In that case I might be more inclined to pass. I really don't see just calling as a good option, as about 2/3 times you won't flop a pair and will find yourself in a quagmire as to what to do.

al

[Ignatius]

If he's tight to the point of only raising with AK and big pairs, then you have to muck. Weak or not, unless you have an image as a complete rock, no tight player will fold a hand he's been willing to raise with UTG for 1900 more when getting better than 2:1 and you know that the best you can hope for is a coin-flip.

[Rickfish]

I would fold or raise, never call. Depends what impression I have made about the range of hands he is likely to have. Depends how many are at the table too. Short-handed could mean he is not so strong. Some people always flat call with AA UTG, some people do so with KK too. If he is one of those then all-in by you can't be worse than a coin-flip. Depends also on how the table is playing, i.e. if I don't play this hand how easy is it going to be to pick up some blinds later. If it always seems to be raised before it gets to you then unless you get moved you are going to have to make a stand when you do get a hand like this.

The other question is whether he is making a standard size bet. If I was UTG I would seriously consider going all-in with any raising hand because some big stack in the blinds may decide to see the flop. Does that mean he is prepared to fold to a re-raise, or does it mean he is sticking to a pattern raise?

I can see the merit in folding especially if it is a fairly passive table. There is always the possibility that someone behind you is sitting on AA or KK too. If it is a very aggressive table I would go all-in because opportunities will be scarce. Sorry if this seems vague but it is the sort of situation I would have to be at the table for. I could fold but I think it is more likely that I would go all-in.

[bigfishead]

With WT it's important to know what he's going to raise with UTG. This sounds like a very easy fold play. WT's don't usually like to go all-in with AQ, AJ so if I do have those beat I wont get called but WT's will limp with the latter hand also(or muck). chances are he has between 1010-AA. In 3 cases it's a coin toss in 2 I'm a huge dog.

Key here is being one of top 15 in tourn remaining. When you are one of the better players you prob shouldnt take such close calls. You have enuf to continue w/o serious threat to stack for a bit.

I believe it's a clear fold and wait. Play with a better edge.

[MrGo]

I believe you have to take his positioning into consideration. A tight player raises 1/3 of his stack (assuming I read the post correctly in that he had T2800 before the raise) from UTG. It would be hard to put him on anything worse than QQ unless he is really weak. I would have to see the player and be playing with him to try to pick up anything.

I can see reasoning why calling is a bad play here...but if the player is weak, perhaps calling may be beneficial. See the flop and try to pick up a tell. If you are a solid post-flop player, perhaps you can beat him here? Thoughts?

[Rickfish]

It is not always easy to guess that the raiser could have. Maybe he has folded the last 50 hands, lost half his chips in blinds, sees AQs and it seems like the crown jewels? It reminds me of a final I was in when various people kept raising then showing AJ when everyone folded. Someone commented on how everyone seemed to think AJ was a strong hand. I agreed with him. I had not played a hand in the final and the blinds we starting to hurt - we had lost two or three players too. I picked up AJ and decided it worked for everyone else so why not. Of course I ran straight into AK from the person who made the comment!

So my point is that just having a note that he is weak-tight is not totally reliable. You have to be fully aware of what is going on at the time. This is why so many questions set in this forum are difficult to answer. Like I said above, I would fold or raise all-in but without being in that person's seat it is difficult to say for sure. I think I am agreeing with you.

However, I hate the idea of putting in nearly a third of my chips to see a flop. If the blinds were smaller then why not but at this level I believe it is fold or raise.

By the way, is weak-tight the same as tight-passive?

[Myrtle]

Vince,

I think it depends on how good your read is on the guy. How many raises have you seen from him? Were they the standard 3x BB raises? Did he vary his raise amounts in any way that revealed his holdings? There are different levels of weak tight, but given that this guy just raised a third of his stack out of position, that leads me to believe that he is ready to be played back at, and has therefore already made the decision that he'll put his whole stack in if he has to. If that is so, what range of hands do you think he's willing to do that with? Given the info that you've provided, I'd guess AA,KK,QQ or Aks.

Or, is he the kind of weak tight that is on a rag run & is feeling desperate and is willing to make that move with 99,TT,JJ?

If the former is your best read, and you're feeling confident about your play and ability position (top 15 of remaining players), I'd probably lay it down and wait for a better chance.

If the latter is your read, then you have to consider the potential action behind you. What's your read on how the remaining players read YOU? The difference between your stack size may make a difference. (i.e., your question of you having T2100 vs. T3100), should you decide to push allin, as it will have an effect on the pot odds that BB & SB are getting should they wake up with a hand.

Being the gutless bstard that I am, I'd like to feel that I was getting my $$ in the middle with the best of it, and in this situation, I'm simply not sure that's the case, as at best my edge with Aks here is small, or I'm a big dog to AA, KK.

Given all the info, in the end, I'd pass in either case.

You thread title was "Very Important NLH Tourney Questions" leads me to believe that there's more to this post than meets the eye…….Have I glossed over/missed something here?

[fnurt]

"Weak-tight" can mean a lot of things. I think the only relevant question is whether he will raise AQ under the gun. If you don't think he would then there's no point in getting involved here.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

VERY important, eh? So, how much did you and Dangerous Dan bet on the consensus answer to your post?

Raise or fold, as many have said. If his range of hands includes AQ, AJ, and KQ, raise. If it doesn't include any of these hands, fold.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Josh W]

Wow. I don't think I've ever so whole-heartedly disagreed with so many people before. I read this, and told myself "it's an easy call, and nothing else is close". Then, I read the responses.

Then, thinking I must be way off, I called a good friend/pro in Vegas who is the career in-the-money finishes leader in the Bellagio $500 friday night NL tournies. He said it's an easy call. Neither of us even thought about it too long.

If you call, and miss on the flop, and have to fold (which won't happen every time you miss), you have 2200 chips, average is around 2500 chips, you have free hands, are a superior player, and will easily rebuild. This is not a bad situation to be in.

AND IT'S THE WORST CASE SCENARIO.

He's weak tight. If he misses, you won't have to make any tough calls or tough reads on the flop. Flop comes Q99 and he pushes, you muck. Flop comes A94, he pushes, you call, and beat his AQ.

flop comes J83, and he bets small, you push, cuz you know he is afraid, cuz he's weak tight.

You have position for the rest of the hand. Not all decisions need to be made preflop.

Against a tougher opponent, who is capable of making life miserable for you post flop, then maybe enter "push or fold" mode. But against a mule like this, prolong the decision making.

Look, everybody and their mother says that the key to winning NL tournies is to beat AK with pairs, and to beat pairs with AK. Or they say "you gotta win coinflips".

So why, pray tell, when you are an above-average player, do you wanna put in all your chips when you are likely a coinflip? Give the hand some chance to develop. See what happens. You know that this is the only tough choice you'll have to make all hand (most of the time), so make a tough choice with a few chips on the line, not with all of them on the line.

Give yourself a better chance of beating a pocket pair. Give yourself a better chance of not losing all your chips with AK.

I find it funny that people here (i.e. Al Capone Jr.) say that you'll be in a 'quagmire' post flop when you miss. Why? YOUR OPPONENT IS WEAK TIGHT. The hand will play itself. He's going to be easy to read, and every decision (including a post flop bluff) will be easily made and hand delivered to you.

I am utterly astonished that so many people here think that this is a raise or fold situation. Make the tough choice for a few chips, not all of them. Make the easy decision (post flop) for a lot of chips. You've got position, likely the best hand, you're the best player. This means you are the best decision maker. This means the more decisions, the more likely you are to have an edge.

At this point, I've begun just repeating myself. I'm still amazed at the responses so far.

WORST CASE SCENARIO, YOU ARE A TINY BIT BELOW AVERAGE WITH FREE HANDS, AGAINST A WEAK FIELD if you call. If you push and lose, you are almost out. If you fold, you lose a tremendous chance to gain chips, and make a run for the top spot (all that I care about). If you call, you have so much opportunity. You have so little risk. You have only easy decisions from here on out. You have position (only matters when there's more betting to be done...ie not all in). You have everything going for you if you call. You have so much going against you if you push or fold.

Wow. Wow.

Josh W

[fnurt]

Did you really read the responses? What if your opponent won't raise AQ under the gun? How do you feel about calling then?

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

...on your definition of Weak-Tight.

Flop comes A94, he pushes, you call, and beat his AQ.

I think most folks here were making the assumption that a WT would *not* raise with AQ UTG. In fact, most here indicated that if AQ were in the range of hands the WT would play, they wouldn't fold.

[hillbilly]

for your analysis to be valid, imo, you must have a strong read that the button (getting laid 2.5-1), the sb (laid 3-1, or better)and the bb (getting laid 3.75, or better), all hate their hands and are going to graciously get out of your way to manhandle said weak tight opponent....i would need to know their stack sizes and proclivities before stating an "easy" call preflop...though i like how you think if the players behind you will go away on their own if you smooth call preflop...

best wishes

[Greg (FossilMan)]

You would call preflop for almost 1/3 of your stack, knowing that you're going to fold on the flop about 2/3 of the time?

Sounds like a losing play to me.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Josh W]

No. I stated this clearly in my post. You won't fold every time you miss.

But I guess I was wrong. ***I*** won't fold every time I miss. I'm against a weak tight opponent. If ***you*** will fold every time you miss, then perhaps calling would be bad. But with that mindset, I wouldn't know how to play NL at all, so I have no advice on the hand.

Josh

[Greg (FossilMan)]

> No. I stated this clearly in my post. You won't fold
> every time you miss.

Literally, of course, you are correct.

> If you call, and miss on the flop, and have to fold
> (which won't happen every time you miss), ...

However, this doesn't jive with the rest of your post.

> He's weak tight. If he misses, you won't have to make any
> tough calls or tough reads on the flop. Flop comes Q99
> and he pushes, you muck. Flop comes A94, he pushes, you
> call, and beat his AQ.

Others have already disagreed with this scenario. Why would he always have AQ here? Even if he might've made the original raise with AQ, he would also do it with AA and AK. And, of course, what about the K94 flop? He's pushing in there with AK, as well as AA and KK. Your EV on that call can't be too great. And what about the AQx flops? Again, he's betting, you're calling, but it can't be very good news.

> flop comes J83, and he bets small, you push, cuz you know
> he is afraid, cuz he's weak tight.

What? You seem to be assuming that he'd bet big when his hand is still strong postflop, but only bet small when bluffing. But you also seem to have assumed elsewhere in your posts that he wouldn't bluff at all, because he doesn't force you to make any tricky decisions at all. You seem to be assuming that you can play with psychic powers, and have it both ways. Why can't he have AA/KK/QQ on this flop, and now that he sees the flop, figures there's almost no chance you're ahead or have many outs, that he can afford to milk you a little, rather than blow you off the pot?

The issue boils down to the opponent YOU are imagining when you read "weak-tight" in the original post, and the weak-tight opponent being imagined by others. Apparently to you, weak-tight means you have 100% control and never make a wrong decision postflop. Sorry to say I've never run into an opponent quite that predictable.

Sorry if any of my posts came across as insulting to you, but whether it was intended or not, your posts came across as smug to me.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Myrtle]

Josh,

It seems to me as if your original response is based upon the fact that you are taking for granted that a smooth call of the UTG raise will end up getting you H/U with the W/T UTG raiser? Is this because that you've forgotten that you still have the Button, SB & BB to act behind you?

A flat call in C/O here gives each of the remaining players better pot odds. The permutations of how much better they get depends upon what action in turn each one of them takes.

The cynical part of me (knowing Vince) is that's why he threw in the different player stack sizes. Or on the other hand, it could just be one of those sneaky "only Vince" misdirection moves to make all of us look like horses arses. OK, Vince…..I'll bite.

As Greg said, "1/3 of your stack ……". You then replied that YOU wouldn't fold every time. OK, what % of the time WILL you fold, and how will changing that %age alter the EV of the play?

Quote…"WORST CASE SCENARIO, YOU ARE A TINY BIT BELOW AVERAGE WITH FREE ANDS, AGAINST A WEAK FIELD if you call. If you push and lose, you are almost out. If you fold, you lose a tremendous chance to gain chips, and make a run for the top spot (all that I care about). If you call, you have so much opportunity. You have so little risk. You have only easy decisions from here on out."

Little Risk? Easy Decisions? Again, let's go through the permutations of potential actions by Button, SB, BB & the original UTG raiser. I admire your optimism and aggressive stance, but……..

I think a smooth call here is one of those errors that very easily turns into the classic " opportunity to trap yourself and compound your original error" scenario.

Some might even describe a call in that position with that hand as weak/tight.

I've re-read you original response a number of times to ensure that I understand it…. Perhaps I still don't? If I'm missing something, please let me know.

[Poker21]

You put him all-in with the AK's. Since you hold an ace and a king the odds he has Aces or Kings are small. With anything less you are a huge favorite.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

But if the opponent is *so* weak-tight that all he'd raise with UTG is AA, KK, or AKs, he'll have aces or kings 2/3 of the time.

The crux of this problem is the definition of "weak-tight."

[cferejohn]

Actually, if your AK is unsuited than he will have AA or KK (as opposed to AKs) 1/4 of the time, since there are only 2 AKs possibilities that you don't eliminate by holding an offsuite A and K.

-picky chris

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Except if I read this problem correctly, you *are* holding AKs, leaving 3 AKs combinations left. And I think my scenario is so extreme as to be almost non-existant.

I think what I learned from all this is that different people have a different definition of weak-tight or that there are different degrees of WT-ness (no surprise).