AA

[sfer]

40/80 at the Borgata. MP, a young woman I've played a fair amount with openraises in the CO. This game is much bigger than her normal game (10/20) so she is either staked, newly rich, or found a sugar daddy. She a little too passive and too loose, nothing out of the ordinary. Button coldcalls, SB folds, I squeeze red AA in the BB and 3-bet, she 4-bets, Button calls, I call.

3 players, 12.5 SBs. Flop is Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/spade.gif 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif. I bet, she raises, button folds, I 3-bet, she 4-bets, I 5-bet, she calls.

HU for 11.25 BBs. Turn is the 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. I bet, she calls.

River is the K /images/graemlins/spade.gif. I bet, she raises, I fold.

[Boris]

Looks like a fold to me. I would check call the river though.

[krishanleong]

4-bet cap or 5? why not 5-bet preflop and could that have impacted her play?

What is her 4-bet range? Your description makes me think AK,JJ+.

I can only assume you are putting her squarely on KK on the river. Pot is pretty big. Could it be the other AA? Could she have KQs?(I don't think so).

I think the river fold is okay.

Krishan

[DeathDonkey]

Generally I think "metagame considerations" are overrated, but in this case I think they are an important factor in this river decision. For that reason I think you should check/call the river. When she 4 bets preflop and 5 bets the flop, AK is looking really unlikely. Check/fold might be the "perfect play" but with the huge pot and the metagame I already mentioned I think paying one bet to see her cards is the best compromise.

-DeathDonkey

[Robb]

It seems like you needed her raise on the river to tell you you were beat. Isn't it obvious? the K /images/graemlins/spade.gif is the worst card for you. When she just calls the turn she has exactly AA, KK, or 10-10 what....95-99% of the time?

IF you are going to bet-fold you are better off check-calling because the only hand she checks behind is the other AA but there may be a sliver of a chance she raises with it since if you check there that always signals "I think I'm beat but I'm calling". Or a sliver of a chance she has 95o.

I contemplated check-fold in theory (though I'm not strong enough to lay down AA hu at the table)....but I don't think you can check-fold here because a river check may confuse her into thinking you had AQ and she may then value bet AA.

[Entity]

Is there any value in a river bet?

[BigEndian]

The river is either C/C or C/F imo.

- Jim

[shemp]

What range of hands did you put her on before you bet the river? I mean, it looks like she has AA or KK to me...

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]

4-bet cap or 5? why not 5-bet preflop and could that have impacted her play?

[/ QUOTE ]

4 bet cap, no cap HU.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
She a little too passive and too loose, nothing out of the ordinary.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are you putting her on when she 4 bets this flop after she 4 bets preflop that you think a river bet is the move? She's not putting you on a flush. I don't think she'd do this with JJ. She certainly didn't just go that far with the other AA to fold for 1 bet on the river.

b

[sfer]

Yeah, forgot this. She's Russian. I'm Asian. She thinks I'm crazy.

[Boris]

Does she think you're crazy becuase you're Asian or because you're a maniac?

You've played with her alot so I guess you have the confidence necessary to make this laydown. What did you put her on after the flop? Why did you think your river bet would likely not be raised? I play this a little more conservatively, but I also don't know your opponenet.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
Does she think you're crazy becuase you're Asian or because you're a maniac?

[/ QUOTE ]

A little from column A, a little from column B.

[MaxPower]

I think that is perfect, even if she thinks you are crazy.

If you are going to put a bet in on the river, I think betting and folding is superior to check-calling especially against a passive player and a board like that. If she is bluffing or raising a pair of aces on that river, she deserves that pot.

I think checking and calling is like flushing 80 dollars down the toilet. Betting and folding is like flushing less than 80 dollars down the toilet.

I'm not sure about these meta game considerations that Death Donkey is talking about.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that is perfect, even if she thinks you are crazy.

If you are going to put a bet in on the river, I think betting and folding is superior to check-calling especially against a passive player and a board like that. If she is bluffing or raising a pair of aces on that river, she deserves that pot.

I think checking and calling is like flushing 80 dollars down the toilet. Betting and folding is like flushing less than 80 dollars down the toilet.

I'm not sure about these meta game considerations that Death Donkey is talking about.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hands can she have on the river that Dave can value bet with, especially when she's passive and 4-bet preflop and 5-bet the flop? If a bet is going in it's a check-call because then I can consider at least some chance of her having AA -- given her lack of a turn raise it's 3:1 in favor of KK, but I only need her to be betting AA one in 8.5 times for a check-call to be the best play. I don't think I'm ahead close to 55% of the time that I bet and am called by a notably passive player on this river, even when I'm a crazy asian with a tie wrapped around my head -- but I do think she'll bet AA when checked to, because in general, that's what people do.

So I really don't see a check-call as throwing money away at all. Actually I think a bet-call might be worse here but someone's gonna have to explain to me what being asian really does for your image.

rob

[BigEndian]

[ QUOTE ]
someone's gonna have to explain to me what being asian really does for your image.

[/ QUOTE ]

Typically, asians are tossed into one of two buckets: 1) extremely conservative and probably wouldn't be at the table in the first place, 2) GAAAAAAMBOLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!

- Jim

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
someone's gonna have to explain to me what being asian really does for your image.

[/ QUOTE ]

Typically, asians are tossed into one of two buckets: 1) extremely conservative and probably wouldn't be at the table in the first place, 2) GAAAAAAMBOLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!

- Jim

[/ QUOTE ]

Hehe, I know. I was just trying to elucidate the fact that I don't think it's a good bet even with Dave's image. Yeah, it's possible she could have gotten way out of line with JJ and be calling down, but I find that way less likely than the combined odds of betting into KK or a chop.

Rob

[MaxPower]

Its not a value bet in the traditional sense. He is not planning on being ahead 55% of the time that he is called. Its just that he is more of an underdog when checks and calls than when he bets and is called.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Its not a value bet in the traditional sense. He is not planning on being ahead 55% of the time that he is called. Its just that he is more of an underdog when checks and calls than when he bets and is called.

[/ QUOTE ]

Being more of an underdog doesn't matter in this case given the pot size. If she never bets AA it's a check-fold. But if she bets AA 50% of the time it's a check-call (earns .75BB if we're wondering if she has AA or KK), which is better than a bet, which loses 1BB the vast majority of the time here. If she bets AA 40% of the time she has AA (even accounting for only one combo of AA) we break even on our 1BB investment. In order for our river bet to be breakeven she will have to have JJ or AK some portion of the time, given how often we will be bet-folding or bet-chopping. Given how this hand has played out, especially preflop and on the flop, that doesn't seem nearly likely enough for a bet to have more EV than a check-call.

IMO the decision is somewhere between check-calling and check-folding, but betting seems particularly spewy.

Rob

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
someone's gonna have to explain to me what being asian really does for your image.

[/ QUOTE ]

Typically, asians are tossed into one of two buckets: 1) extremely conservative and probably wouldn't be at the table in the first place, 2) GAAAAAAMBOLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!

- Jim

[/ QUOTE ]

Hehe, I know. I was just trying to elucidate the fact that I don't think it's a good bet even with Dave's image. Yeah, it's possible she could have gotten way out of line with JJ and be calling down, but I find that way less likely than the combined odds of betting into KK or a chop.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

She would play AQ the same against me, maybe even AsKs. At least until the river.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
someone's gonna have to explain to me what being asian really does for your image.

[/ QUOTE ]

Typically, asians are tossed into one of two buckets: 1) extremely conservative and probably wouldn't be at the table in the first place, 2) GAAAAAAMBOLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!

- Jim

[/ QUOTE ]

Hehe, I know. I was just trying to elucidate the fact that I don't think it's a good bet even with Dave's image. Yeah, it's possible she could have gotten way out of line with JJ and be calling down, but I find that way less likely than the combined odds of betting into KK or a chop.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

She would play AQ the same against me, maybe even AsKs. At least until the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ugh. If that's the case then stop calling her "too passive" in her description. I know you've got a crazy image but that really needs to be included in the OP, because people who are a little too passive don't generally go 4 bets preflop and 5 bets on the flop with TPTK.

Rob

[MaxPower]

I'm not sure where these numbers are coming from and what assumptions you are making.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure where these numbers are coming from and what assumptions you are making.

[/ QUOTE ]

3 ways for KK, 1 way for AA. Dave is now telling me that my range is too narrow but I was going off of a "too passive" read which, to me, even in hyperlag games would mean no AQ preflop/flop and no JJ flop. So I weighted those, check-calling earns 7.5BB against AA as a chop, and figured how many times she'd have to bet AA (40%) that she has it. 40% x 1 x 7.5 = 3, which is the same as the 3 ways she can have KK and bet them on the river. Either way given the description and that scenario I didn't like a river bet, since it's going to take a lot for a river bet to approach 0EV given the assumptions made.

If the assumptions made are wrong, I was going off of the read provided and trying to extrapolate from there. I'm headed to the gym but will post more later if necessary.

Rob

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
someone's gonna have to explain to me what being asian really does for your image.

[/ QUOTE ]

Typically, asians are tossed into one of two buckets: 1) extremely conservative and probably wouldn't be at the table in the first place, 2) GAAAAAAMBOLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!

- Jim

[/ QUOTE ]

Hehe, I know. I was just trying to elucidate the fact that I don't think it's a good bet even with Dave's image. Yeah, it's possible she could have gotten way out of line with JJ and be calling down, but I find that way less likely than the combined odds of betting into KK or a chop.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

She would play AQ the same against me, maybe even AsKs. At least until the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ugh. If that's the case then stop calling her "too passive" in her description. I know you've got a crazy image but that really needs to be included in the OP, because people who are a little too passive don't generally go 4 bets preflop and 5 bets on the flop with TPTK.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

She is too passive. I 5-bet the flop, and I don't think that 4-betting AQ in a stealish situation is a litmus test for proper aggression.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
someone's gonna have to explain to me what being asian really does for your image.

[/ QUOTE ]

Typically, asians are tossed into one of two buckets: 1) extremely conservative and probably wouldn't be at the table in the first place, 2) GAAAAAAMBOLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!

- Jim

[/ QUOTE ]

Hehe, I know. I was just trying to elucidate the fact that I don't think it's a good bet even with Dave's image. Yeah, it's possible she could have gotten way out of line with JJ and be calling down, but I find that way less likely than the combined odds of betting into KK or a chop.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

She would play AQ the same against me, maybe even AsKs. At least until the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ugh. If that's the case then stop calling her "too passive" in her description. I know you've got a crazy image but that really needs to be included in the OP, because people who are a little too passive don't generally go 4 bets preflop and 5 bets on the flop with TPTK.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

She is too passive. I 5-bet the flop, and I don't think that 4-betting AQ in a stealish situation is a litmus test for proper aggression.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll do the math while I'm cycling, but I know that adding AQs still makes it a check-call rather than a bet-fold. AQo might switch it up a bit more.

Rob

[MaxPower]

I agree with Dave, AA or KK is too narrow. There are a few other hands she could have. It is difficult for me to explain why I feel this way, but the combination of factors, (her position and image, Dave's position and image, the flop action, the turn action, and the board) leads me to believe there are a few worse hands she will call with but never bet (very few, e.g. AQ, AK). There are also a lot of better hands that she will not raise with and she will also probably not raise with AA.

If she is not going to raise AA, then Dave's EV when she has AA is the same whether he bets or checks (Well, technically it is higher when he bets, but lets ignore that). Whens she doesn't have AA then Dave's EV is approximately -$80 when he calls a bet. When he bets there are a few hands she will call with that she won't bet (although very few). If she will raise AA in this spot then my analysis sucks.

[DeathDonkey]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure about these meta game considerations that Death Donkey is talking about.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bet/folding the river for one more bet in a huge pot? At a 40/80 game where people will take notice. Any plan that has us putting in all that action and not seeing a showdown is bound to raise some eyebrows.

-DeathDonkey

[charlieD]

isn't russia in asia?

[BottlesOf]

Part of it is.

What up Ural mountains!

[Entity]

I've thought about this for a while and I really don't agree with your guy's reads. I don't think she has AQ here often enough for a bet to show any profit, but if you guys do, bet-fold away.

Rob

[shemp]

[ QUOTE ]
She would play AQ the same against me, maybe even AsKs. At least until the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

The goal posts are shifting. This passive person playing higher than usual 4 bets preflop and 4 bets the flop with AQ? Can she have KQ? Once the river hits you can rule out AsKs, so that's not relevant. Anyway, I guess you've answered the question what you put her on before betting the river: AA, KK, or AQ...

But one more question: Since you know that she will never raise a worse hand, and will call or check with some hands that you beat, why do you post this hand which you played so perfectly?

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with Dave, AA or KK is too narrow. There are a few other hands she could have. It is difficult for me to explain why I feel this way, but the combination of factors, (her position and image, Dave's position and image, the flop action, the turn action, and the board) leads me to believe there are a few worse hands she will call with but never bet (very few, e.g. AQ, AK).

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. If you fully ignore the player profile and the preflop/flop action, sure. There just aren't that 'few more worse hands' she'd play that way all the way through, imo.

AK? only spades.
AQ? Not preflop.

What other hands do you really think she'd play this way? It looks alot like KK.

Easy check and call if you're planning on putting another bet in. Unless you can think of something she might actually fold here for a single bet. I can't.

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
She would play AQ the same against me,

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't see too many passive players playing AQ that way preflop.

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
She is too passive. I 5-bet the flop, and I don't think that 4-betting AQ in a stealish situation is a litmus test for proper aggression.

[/ QUOTE ]

Passive players generally aren't that aggressive with steals either.

b

[MaxPower]

He never said she was passive. He said she was a little too passive. Maybe he should explain what that means. To me it means she plays aggressively, but misses a lot of bets.

[andyfox]

Given that there's $1,320 in the pot, that she thinks she's playing against a crazy person, and that the others would see a fold in an ubermegapot for one more bet on the river, I'd have called.

[shemp]

[ QUOTE ]
He never said she was passive. He said she was a little too passive. Maybe he should explain what that means. To me it means she plays aggressively, but misses a lot of bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know what you are getting at, and yet I think you are contorting the language here. Aggressivity is a continuum, where "too passive" indicates a tendency in one direction, which is imperfectly, but fairly, abbreviated as "passive" -- beyond that, I agree the original speaker has to say. Note that you are arguing on a different front than the OP, whose opinion is not that she isn't passive, but that her behaviour in the hand with AQ isn't particularly aggressive.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
She would play AQ the same against me,

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't see too many passive players playing AQ that way preflop.

b

[/ QUOTE ]

too passive <> passive

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
Given that there's $1,320 in the pot, that she thinks she's playing against a crazy person, and that the others would see a fold in an ubermegapot for one more bet on the river, I'd have called.

[/ QUOTE ]

Andy, certainly you must have a number of players you see again and again where you know they aren't raising the river without a hand that beats Aces, regardless of how crazy/dumb/aggressive their opponent is.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He never said she was passive. He said she was a little too passive. Maybe he should explain what that means. To me it means she plays aggressively, but misses a lot of bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know what you are getting at, and yet I think you are contorting the language here. Aggressivity is a continuum, where "too passive" indicates a tendency in one direction, which is imperfectly, but fairly, abbreviated as "passive" -- beyond that, I agree the original speaker has to say. Note that you are arguing on a different front than the OP, whose opinion is not that she isn't passive, but that her behaviour in the hand with AQ isn't particularly aggressive.

[/ QUOTE ]

Certainly there is a big distinction between preflop/flop aggression and turn/river aggression, and that one can give action on the small streets but be passive enough on the big streets such that raises are indicative of a much narrower range of hands. If that range is narrow enough, that is a turn/river raise is almost never less than 2-pair, I would consider that player too passive.

[shemp]

Then, at the outset, you need to tell us she is aggressive preflop and on the flop but doesn't give action on big bet streets without a big hand, rather than persist that "too passive" should be read "is aggressive preflop and on the flop but doesn't give action on big bet streets".

That's my opinion. Posts where information seeps out and context is added as needed to bolster hero's line annoy me.

But again, why ask the forum for comments on something so idiosyncratic and hinging on information unknown to the forum? Obviously you know the river play is perfect given the constraints you've placed on this person. The other streets are reasonable, I'm kind of partial to turn raises and 3-bets where I like my hand so much, but so be it.

[tpir90036]

I just took your read in context and came up with "too passive for a 40 game in Atlantic City" /images/graemlins/wink.gif But I still don't see how she raises with a hand you are beating. If that is anywhere in the range I would rather check/call then bet/fold.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
Then, at the outset, you need to tell us she is aggressive preflop and on the flop but doesn't give action on big bet streets without a big hand, rather than persist that "too passive" should be read "is aggressive preflop and on the flop but doesn't give action on big bet streets".

That's my opinion. Posts where information seeps out and context is added as needed to bolster hero's line annoy me.

But again, why ask the forum for comments on something so idiosyncratic and hinging on information unknown to the forum? Obviously you know the river play is perfect given the constraints you've placed on this person. The other streets are reasonable, I'm kind of partial to turn raises and 3-bets where I like my hand so much, but so be it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough. I'm inclined to think, however, that my characterization of "too passive" is common to the point of default in live play. Maybe you disagree.

As for the river, I don't think it's perfect, but I think it's right, and it's not because of my prior experience with her so much as what Max was saying. That is, when the river goes bet/call I'm a favorite. When it goes bet/raise or check/bet I'm toast.

EDIT: Obviously, I think I'm a favorite when it goes check/check too.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]


HU for 11.25 BBs. Turn is the 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. I bet, she calls.

River is the K /images/graemlins/spade.gif. I check, she bets, I fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Based on your description, there is no way she has JJ or AK (EDIT: or AQ).

[shemp]

You don't want to take credit for playing the river perfectly as you suggest any other way is less profitable. How is this not more word games? I'd wish you luck, but you clearly don't need any with the control you have over your opponents. Just be careful when you read their minds that they haven't misread their hands.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


HU for 11.25 BBs. Turn is the 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. I bet, she calls.

River is the K /images/graemlins/spade.gif. I check, she bets, I fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Based on your description, there is no way she has JJ or AK (EDIT: or AQ).

[/ QUOTE ]

Unfortunately, we can't check-fold this river unless we're positive she doesn't bet AA.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't want to take credit for playing the river perfectly as you suggest any other way is less profitable. How is this not more word games? I'd wish you luck, but you clearly don't need any with the control you have over your opponents. Just be careful when you read their minds that they haven't misread their hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

You seem to have some sort of beef with me. I don't quite understand why. I think I've made a serious attempt to curtail the smarm I usually use to post, but whatever. Thanks for not wishing me misfortune.

[MaxPower]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't want to take credit for playing the river perfectly as you suggest any other way is less profitable. How is this not more word games? I'd wish you luck, but you clearly don't need any with the control you have over your opponents. Just be careful when you read their minds that they haven't misread their hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I will go out on a limb and say that he played the river perfectly and I'm happy to be proven wrong.

He is not going to make any profit on money he puts in to the pot on the river, but he will lose less by betting than by checking and calling.

The only time he should check is if she is so passive that she will check behind with most of her hands that aren't the nuts.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You don't want to take credit for playing the river perfectly as you suggest any other way is less profitable. How is this not more word games? I'd wish you luck, but you clearly don't need any with the control you have over your opponents. Just be careful when you read their minds that they haven't misread their hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

You seem to have some sort of beef with me. I don't quite understand why. I think I've made a serious attempt to curtail the smarm I usually use to post, but whatever. Thanks for not wishing me misfortune.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dave, I don't think it's a beef with you personally. I've talked about this hand with a few people and every one of us has said check-call -- she's got AA or KK -- given the read you provided. You've given us information after the fact that literally makes it impossible for us to disagree with your river play, because the read you gave (she can have AQ, will only raise KK, and will bet AA if checked to) makes your best river play obviously the best both mathematically and logically. Basically you've constructed a situation in which it's impossible to argue the proper play on the river, due to your read, which since we weren't there, we can't disagree with. Which makes this hand kinda worthless to post, because what's the point of posting a hand where you've constructed the variables in such a way where there is only one proper mathematical play and you took it?

Hope this doesn't come across the wrong way, you know I like you but if you think she can have AQ and will bet AA on the river you know that bet-folding is the right play and there's no way around it. Which makes the whole hand kinda moot.

Rob

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]


Unfortunately, we can't check-fold this river unless we're positive she doesn't bet AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I realized that after.

[shemp]

[ QUOTE ]
I will go out on a limb and say that he played the river perfectly and I'm happy to be proven wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

How can anyone disagree provided the constraint his opponent will call but never bet with worse hands and only raise better hands and holds either AQ, AA, or KK?

Change one thing, say, she needs her AQ sooted to give this action early, and there is only 1 hand he beats on the river (AcQc) and should check. Or, give her the free will to put him on AQ and trust her own read with AK, or give her KQ and the same conviction -- I mean, he doesn't have AA, right? Don't get me wrong, I think she rivered the best hand, but if she would occasionally bet AK or AA when checked to or could have KQ and would do the same, it all makes the river a check.

I've learned to tread a bit lightly around how well I understand my opponents. I've read them perfectly, when they've misread their hands. And other times, they've done things I thought so out of character, that I don't know to this day what got into them.

And if it is the case that her likely holdings are AA or KK, hero needs to check the river.

It would be very un-2+2-like, but I couldn't cap the flop and I check and call the turn and river because I see her as only having one of the following: AA, KK, QQ, TT. I'd say KK and QQ are equally likely and TT is maybe half as likely. AA (obviously, is the most unlikely of all).

But, if I took your line, her flat call on the turn scares the Bejeezus out of me. She wants you to flush or do something stupid (like bet on the river with AA).
I'm pretty sure she has you beat from the flop and it just got better on the turn. And then, your only hope (that she has KK) evaporates on the river. Check/Fold or check/call if you really think she might have the other AA. I'm pretty sure you'll be looking at Queens full.

[jackmayhoffer]

Since when can you 5 bet at the Borgata in a betting round that is not heads up?

[Mackie]

She has position on you, why couldn't she 4 bet the flop with AsKx? I see no point in betting the river. None. Looks like a clear CC.

I never play higher than 30-60. Is there some reason for the river bet other than she may lay down a better hand or call with a worse one?

[Turning Stone Pro]

[ QUOTE ]
Andy, certainly you must have a number of players you see again and again where you know they aren't raising the river without a hand that beats Aces, regardless of how crazy/dumb/aggressive their opponent is.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't have aces, sir, you have two pair, using a pocket overpair, with a K kicker. Terrible river play.

TSP

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
She has position on you, why couldn't she 4 bet the flop with AsKx? I see no point in betting the river. None. Looks like a clear CC.

[/ QUOTE ]
hmm, so u think AK is plenty likely, but you see no reason to bet the river?
how about value?

[ActionBob]

Its head up when the 4th bet went in, so there is no cap.

-ActionBob

I dont like the river bet. Her hand range is pretty small given the description you gave, and I think that queens full raises the turn, as well as tens full. I dont think she's holding either one of these hands when she just calls the turn, because, you advertised that you would raise, raise, raise on the flop, so, with a full house I think she gets into a rasing war on the turn, too. Then I'm left thinking she doesnt have QQ or 10-10, so she must have AA or KK. AA less likely, but still possible. I'm checking a K on this river because given the action I see KK as her most likely hand. I'm still calling a river bet because I dont like putting that much action in PF and on the flop and folding to one bet on the river. I might be right that she has K's full, but she's going to have to show me at this point. Check/call, and knuckle the table when she shows you AA, and thank Mr. Variance when she flips up the nuts. The only other hand I even considered was AsJs, but I cant see a passive player playing a gutshot royal that fast. But then again some players get absolutely giddy about a royal flush draw. I'd say KK 80% QQ 10% 10-10 8% and quads/royal 2% in this situation.






Tex

[Mackie]

hmm, you value bet the river because she *might* have a hand you can beat, but *probably* not? Show me where I said "plenty" likely.

The possibility she could have AK (or even less likely KQ) justifies a check-call instead of a check-fold. Betting the river is spewing. If she does have AK you probably still get the same one big bet from her with a check call.

agreed, i give her set of Q's here most likely.. possibly 10's. good laydown.

[B Dids]

I would wager that shemp's issue is one that Paluka raised a while back.

People post live hands where they make iffy plays, ask for questions, and then explain their play based on a very specific read. While it's potentially interesting, it's not terribly informative for other players, nor can we be of much help without having the same read.

I have a really hard time wanting to put any money into this pot on the river, but christ is it big and I couldn't not check/call.

(fwiw I've met Dave and talk with shemp a lot on IRC and they're both awesome people who should like hug and stuff)