AA raise the river?

[newhizzle]

villain is 21/14/1.5 and a regular in the 50 game, the only note i really have on him is "c/r bluffs the turn" but that dosent even really apply here, anyway he dosent seem to get out of line too often

Party Poker 50.00/100.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(9 handed)</font> link (http://www.darksun.lunarpages.com/poker/)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB caps</font>, Hero calls.

River: (14.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero ...

[WillyTrailer]

I'd raise it.

-WT

I guess you have to guess how often he 3-bets Q10 vs KK,JJ,99 preflop?

Seems like a raise to me atleast.

[RED_RAIN]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess you have to guess how often he 3-bets Q10 vs KK,JJ,99 preflop?

Seems like a raise to me atleast.

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm, he doesn't have QT ever. He also is unlikely to have JJ or 99. I think you can put square on KK (more likely) or AK and he puts you on AK.

Raise the river one more time and if he has Qs (well he won't, next)

Raise this river, call a three bet.

Given the PF action and the action on the flop, we know Q10 is possible but unlikely. Raise the river, and I would just call a three bet, because I dont like capping in this spot without the nuts.




Tex

[MarkD]

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I guess you have to guess how often he 3-bets Q10 vs KK,JJ,99 preflop?

Seems like a raise to me atleast.

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm, he doesn't have QT ever. He also is unlikely to have JJ or 99. I think you can put square on KK (more likely) or AK and he puts you on AK.

Raise the river one more time and if he has Qs (well he won't, next)

[/ QUOTE ]

I must be way out to lunch here but villian's play, on every street, is quite consistent with QT, probably QTs. It is also quite consistent with KK, JJ, and 99. Although KK may not have bet the flop so I think it is the least likely.

I guess the only debatable street for QT is pre-flop but hero open raised from teh CO which is a steal. QT would certainly play here and may occasionaly raise, and I think he would be right to raise occasionaly and is certainly right to play the hand. I don't know how you can totally dismiss QT here.

[Lmn55d]

hey Mark, long time no see. I don't think you can totally dismiss QT, but the thing is not many people would 3bet QT from the BB. And of those who would, a lot (probably most) would not donk it on the flop. This parlay is why I would discount it a lot. I think the donk with OESD is especially unlikely if BB is a decent player. Additionally, the T on the river makes it 25% less likely he holds QT.

I agree. It isn't completely out of the question, so the OP doesnt need to get to carried away in this spot.


Tex

[RED_RAIN]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree. It isn't completely out of the question, so the OP doesnt need to get to carried away in this spot.


Tex

[/ QUOTE ]

How you think a guy with these stats has QTo or QTs is really making me wonder. I'd like to change my answer to he has AK.

I said that it is unlikely but not out of the question. The PF raise could be viewed as a steal, which would make opponent correct to re-raise and 10+10 hand PF.

And to take what you said, the guy has stats that would indicate that he either has a set or the nuts given his action.

Therefore, I find it correct to raise this river and just call a three bet.



Any questions???


Tex

[RED_RAIN]

I agree with everything except QT.

If you disagree with QT, then how can you agree to not cap this river?



Tex

[RED_RAIN]

The off chance he is going nutty with AQ or QQ. I think QQ is just about unlikely as QT though.

[chaosuk]

I might raise by through impulse, but upon inspection this is a call to for me. You've got to be better than 67% here to raise - you're about as likely to fold to his 3 bet as he is to your raise - not very.

For my money Q-10s is very much in play:

His stats - 21/14/1.5 , net him 3-betting the cutoff seal with Q-10s, though a higher AF would make it nor likely (sample size?)

Notes: 'c-r raises on a bluff' again fairly consistent behaviour with this pre-flop raise.

Flop play - not quite so sure, very consistent with say J-9-x; but he may have been setting himself up for the check-bluff raise on the turn (as appears to be his way)

[newhizzle]

well i thought about it for a minute and ended up calling, even though after his flop and turn action i was pretty much convinced he had a lower set, anyway, he had JJ and i think that raising and calling a 3-bet would have been the correct play here

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
hey Mark, long time no see. I don't think you can totally dismiss QT, but the thing is not many people would 3bet QT from the BB. And of those who would, a lot (probably most) would not donk it on the flop. This parlay is why I would discount it a lot. I think the donk with OESD is especially unlikely if BB is a decent player. Additionally, the T on the river makes it 25% less likely he holds QT.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yah, I've been out of town for most of November. I agree with what you have said, but I think QTs is a possibility here. 21/14 seems agressive enough to occasionally 3-bet QTs... I would do it - albeit very rarely. You are also right about the donk bet being strange by a good player on that flop.

I just think Red Rain was being a bit too dismissive. But, in hind sight it does seem less likely than even I originally thought. My post was a knee jerk rejaction to something that I thought was being too dismissive... serves me right for not playing a hand in three weeks or so.

I would not have found a raise on the river here.

If he holds a Queen, we loose 2 extra BB. If he does not hold a Queen, we win 1 extra BB. So, does he hold in Queen in less than 33% of the cases? I doubt it as there are many more QT combinations out there than KK combinations (though his play would fit KK better)

So I'd just call.

If someone has the guts to raise and fold to a 3-bet here with something like 99% certainty then this of course would be the best option.

[RED_RAIN]

I guess maybe I am too passive in the BB to even think about this or bad at reading the stats, I would think someone would have to be closer to 16-18% PFR to 3 bet this and aggression of say 2-2.5.

[mmcd]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess maybe I am too passive in the BB to even think about this or bad at reading the stats, I would think someone would have to be closer to 16-18% PFR to 3 bet this and aggression of say 2-2.5.

[/ QUOTE ]No Way. 21/14 is definately on the aggro side of TAG for full games. You have to remember that the open came from the cutoff, QT may well have a hot and cold equity edge against the OP's range preflop.

[mmcd]

[ QUOTE ]
And of those who would, a lot (probably most) would not donk it on the flop. This parlay is why I would discount it a lot. I think the donk with OESD is especially unlikely if BB is a decent player.

[/ QUOTE ]

He could be planning on donking twice or going for a screwplay. Especially given the average mid/hi 2+2ers penchant for auto-capping medium pairs in this spot preflop.

[Paluka]

This is a pretty obvious river raise. Putting him on a Q is basically impossible.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a pretty obvious river raise. Putting him on a Q is basically impossible.

[/ QUOTE ]

does it go from possible to extremely likely if you get 3bet?

[Paluka]

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This is a pretty obvious river raise. Putting him on a Q is basically impossible.

[/ QUOTE ]

does it go from possible to extremely likely if you get 3bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep. Note that I did not say it was impossible he had a Q. I said it is impossible to put him on a Q. Those aren't the same thing.

[PokerBob]

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[ QUOTE ]
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This is a pretty obvious river raise. Putting him on a Q is basically impossible.

[/ QUOTE ]

does it go from possible to extremely likely if you get 3bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep. Note that I did not say it was impossible he had a Q. I said it is impossible to put him on a Q. Those aren't the same thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

are you then folding?

[Paluka]

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This is a pretty obvious river raise. Putting him on a Q is basically impossible.

[/ QUOTE ]

does it go from possible to extremely likely if you get 3bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep. Note that I did not say it was impossible he had a Q. I said it is impossible to put him on a Q. Those aren't the same thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

are you then folding?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I wouldn't fold to a 3 bet. I think they probably have the Q, but getting these odds you have to go with your read and hope he doesn't have it.

[PokerBob]

.....is a hand I'll 3-bet from the BB against a potential pain in the ass TAG who is gonna come after my blind a lot. I may be ahead, and I now have initiative. Maybe it's wrong, but I do it.

[nykenny]

CAP the river? LOL.

21/14/1.2 to me is SOMEWHAT TIGHT, VERY AGGRO, LITTLE BIT TRICKY.

i don't see how him having QTs or QT (less likely) is completely out of the question.

and please, why EVER cap on the river with a set on a 4 straight board?

IMO the river action here isn't that cruicial. I like the turn cap, but i guess that's a no brainer...

- Kenny

[RED_RAIN]

[ QUOTE ]
and please, why EVER cap on the river with a set on a 4 straight board?

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct

Because of...
[ QUOTE ]
I like the turn cap, but i guess that's a no brainer...

[/ QUOTE ]
...
[ QUOTE ]
IMO the river action here isn't that cruicial.

[/ QUOTE ]
is the only interesting part.

On a side note by reading the stats again of 21/14/1.2 for me to believe that he has a Q here...I think he would have to have an aggression of at least 1.8-2.0. I can actually see why/how he played the Js like he did. I thinks Js are right after the AK or KK guess. QT or AQ is below even say TT. I just really don't see him having any Q hand he plays like this and I think his stats show that. 14/1.2 just isn't gonna 3 bet here out of position IMO without a higher aggression or higher PFR number. All just thoughts.

Put yourself in your opponent's shoes. It looks to him that you do not have a queen. You will usually call with either a better hand or worse hand if he holds a set. You will not bet if he checks with a worse hand. His bet is probably with a set given the betting and you can beat his set. I don't think he'd reraise preflop with QT, but he will with a big PP. Given the turn check-raise he must have a set or QT. I think a river raise, although risky, is profitable. If 3 bet I'd call on the river. I feel the critical point of this hand is the turn check-raise. Given the fact that he reraised preflop he must have a set. You can beat his set and therefore should raise on the river.