$11: how tilty am I? need some affirmation or abuse

[liucipher]

I'm seriously doubting my game. I'm down 12 buy-ins over the last 22 SNGs. Broke even for the 67 SNGs before that. I suspect my lack of cards is making everything look push-worthy. At the same time, my short-stackedness is driving me insane cause I keep finding myself 7 handed in level 5. $11s have not been kind to me.

Would someone please either berate me for my idiocy or tell me to quit whining and deal with the variance? Thanks in advance.

I'm sure glad I make a nice living doing other things.


Only thing in my memory was that Villain had raised UTG to t300 6 hands prior.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP2 (t1360)
CO (t640)
Button (t2658)
Hero (t1262)
BB (t440)
UTG (t820)
MP1 (t820)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.

UTG raises to 300. 4 folds. Hero pushes.

[jeffraider]

Looks good to me.

I don't like coin flips this early.

[liucipher]

Sorry, forgot to mention this - blinds were going up in two hands. Granted I'm not in a terrible chip position, but I'm going to be at <10xBB very soon.

[junkmail3]

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Looks good to me.

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Me too. (lvl 4 is not early)

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Looks good to me.

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Me too. (lvl 4 is not early)

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We're not even at the bubble yet. I'm folding the coinflip. Also, you have no FE here.

[liucipher]

Thanks folks. I'm loading up another set of SNGs.

F*CK going card dead. I'mma play through this variance! /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[jb9]

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I don't like coin flips this early.

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Agreed.

Yes, the blinds are going up and you will have <10 BB, but so will just about everyone else and most of them will have less than you.

Wait til you can raise first in rather than re-raise an UTG bettor who put in 37% of his chips.

Also, even when your stack is small vs. the blinds, when you are ahead of 4 out of 6 players and close to the 5th, you shouldn't think of yourself as suffering from "short-stackedness".

[liucipher]

But when the blinds go up, I'll be pushing into to people w/ ~5xBB or less. Given their "pot commitedness" doesn't that require I tighten my pushing range since they're liable to call w/ pretty much anything suited or connected?

It's going to make my stealing very difficult, no? Or am I thinking about this incorrectly ...

I seriously need to by SNGPT...

[splashpot]

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Looks good to me.

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Me too. (lvl 4 is not early)

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We're not even at the bubble yet. I'm folding the coinflip. Also, you have no FE here.

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Bubble or no bubble. Blinds are high. This is not early. And you have lots of fold equity. I have no idea what you're talking about.

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Looks good to me.

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Me too. (lvl 4 is not early)

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We're not even at the bubble yet. I'm folding the coinflip. Also, you have no FE here.

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Bubble or no bubble. Blinds are high. This is not early. And you have lots of fold equity. I have no idea what you're talking about.

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He has FE against the guy who raised 300 from his 800 chip stack? Nah.

[splashpot]

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He has FE against the guy who raised 300 from his 800 chip stack?

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That's exactly what I'm saying.

I push this every time. Looks fine.

[liucipher]

I agree that the blinds are high. It decidedly does not feel early to me, given my soon to be <10xBB status (granted everyone else has very little, but given how tight I'm going to have to play unless I'm in CO or Button, people are going to start doubling through like mad, and oftentimes not in ways favorable to me).

But do I really have fold equity? Villain just put in 37% of his stack. He is BB next hand and his SB rises hand after that. Granted he probably isn't even thinking of that, but that he's getting 1.4:1.

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He has FE against the guy who raised 300 from his 800 chip stack?

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That's exactly what I'm saying.

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UTG isn't folding. Especially at the 11s.

[skipperbob]

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Looks good to me.

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Me too. (lvl 4 is not early)

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We're not even at the bubble yet. I'm folding the coinflip. Also, you have no FE here.

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Bubble or no bubble. Blinds are high. This is not early. And you have lots of fold equity. I have no idea what you're talking about.

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He has no FE; the bettor is going to call...End of Story!. Best case TT is 50/50..Many worse cases...On-Topic Holla

[liucipher]

So I should fold? I've seen weak aces and smaller PPs raise here. Villain's similar raise less than ten hands before would also corroborate this. Plus there's a whopping t100 in overlay!

Good thing I took a leak and never fired up another set of SNGs.

I think I'm going to take a breather and read more posts ...

[jb9]

I don't know what your pushing range is, so I don't know if you have to tighten it or not...

But, yes, your chance of being called after the blinds increase is higher, and this means your opponents will be calling with weaker hands. Since you have more chips than they do, you can be more selective.

Don't get me wrong, your situation is still not great and you will most likely need to either win a coinflip or steal several sets of blinds.

If you want to try that coinflip with TT v. UTG's raise, then I don't have a real problem with that, but I don't think UTG will fold (leaving him with 5 BB and having to pay the blinds next turn...) and I think best case scenario there is UTG has 2 overcards.

I'd rather wait another orbit or two and look for a better chance. It is true that I might not get one.

[bones]

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We're not even at the bubble yet. I'm folding the coinflip. Also, you have no FE here.

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Not even at the bubble? Guh. This is so wrong. So so wrong.

[liucipher]

Could someone give me Villain's raising range from UTG here? Is my flimsy "he raised this last orbit" read enough to give him a loose to average range?



I'm curious if I'm really that much of a coinflip ...

[Soul Daddy]

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Could someone give me Villain's raising range from UTG here? Is my flimsy "he raised this last orbit" read enough to give him a loose to average range?

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Not really. It's hard to say without knowing what he did in between or prior. But yeah, raising UTG twice in a row means he either woke up to some hands or he's more lag than normal.

Edit: But unless he's a super fool, which he's probably not if you aren't aware of it yet, you're no better than a flip.

good play, no problem here

[mlagoo]

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 51.6097 % 50.92% 00.69% { TT }
Hand 2: 48.3903 % 47.70% 00.69% { 88+, ATs+, KJs+, ATo+, KQo }

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My guess at a range. OTOH, it's an $11. That may make this range larger and it may make the range smaller. I'm really not sure.

I know that I push here like 80% or more of the time... but now I'm not sure this is correct.

Is this range way too tight?

[pooh74]

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equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 51.6097 % 50.92% 00.69% { TT }
Hand 2: 48.3903 % 47.70% 00.69% { 88+, ATs+, KJs+, ATo+, KQo }

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My guess at a range. OTOH, it's an $11. That may make this range larger and it may make the range smaller. I'm really not sure.

I know that I push here like 80% or more of the time... but now I'm not sure this is correct.

Is this range way too tight?

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I would say it is too loose, but at an 11 I don't know what's right here.

This is actually a tough hand, I dont think there is a clear answer. I'd probably push in game time, but considering the raise was UTG I cant imagine too many hands I am not in a flip or worse with.

I push it. For reasons stated by splash.

Check out this thread - Adanthar’s 10+1 Robotic Strategy Guide - interesting reading
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=2934542&page=